UFC Abu Dhabi Recap & Accountability (Patreon)

Hey guys. Obviously, the results recently have not been up to my standards or capabilities. We are still having a good year overall (+13.9U @ 9% ROI) but I am not happy with how the recent results have been playing out in the cage. Sometimes when you go cold, you try to lean too hard into your fundamentals without remembering that each slate is a unique puzzle that requires a unique approach. My goal this week is to use my fundamental, long-term, winning approach while keeping an open mind about the context of the slate including looking at favorites who may be undervalued. The UFC has had an insane rate of favorites hitting this year, including 12/13 closing line favorites hitting at this event. As a primary underdog bettor, this makes my approach akin to looking for needles in a haystack. As a long-term bettor, I think it's important to stick to fundamental edges while making critical adjustments over time.Re-Evaluating The Bets:Rolando Bedoya +126-> The Good: Bedoya fit my long-term criteria as an A-Side underdog; beat the closing line.-> The Bad/Ugly: No proof of concept (no UFC wins / new weight class), smaller fighter.-> Lesson: Check every box or leave it alone.Mohammad Yahya +310-> The Good: Yahya fit my long-term criteria as an A-Side underdog. Nothing else good about this.-> The Bad: I tried to get cute and bet a terrible fighter in order to fade someone's cardio.-> Lesson: Don't try to fade Shit A with Shit B based on cardio unless Shit A is harmless (aka no early finishing upside)Tony Ferguson +450-> The Good: Ferguson fit my long-term criteria as an A-Side underdog; beat the closing line.-> The Bad: No recent proof of concept (7-fight losing streak), undersized, too public as a dog.-> Lesson: Can't be betting on 40-year-old fighters unless they're clearly on juice moving forward.