First Prop Bet for UFC Atlanta (Patreon)

Hey folks, first bet is in for UFC Atlanta, and it's a prop. I think Andre Petroski has ML value, but the number one way he loses this fight is getting finished (particularly in the first two rounds), while his most likely path to victory is a decision. His opponent is known for having bad cardio and a mediocre process. Petroski isn't the most durable fighter I have ever seen, but he is a consistent round and minute winner with massive takedown and top control upside. I think this bet wins or pushes at least 65% of the time (expected odds -185). It is hard for me to imagine Edmen Shahbazyan wins this fight by DEC more than ~10 to ~20% of the time, so this is a conservative estimate. As of now I have bet it to win .5U because I have no price comparisons in the market, but I will bet this to win 1U before fight week is over. Waiting to see where other books come to market. Rivers tends to be slow moving, so I am happy to bide my time. I will also be considering the Petroski ML and or Points Handicap (each +1xx). I would also consider Petroski Rd. 2 / Rd. 3. I rarely lay chalk, but this seems like a really undervalued prop because it is a bit unconventional. The BestFightOdds market average price for Petroski DEC avg. is +393 (or 20.3%) while Shahbazyan DEC avg. is +460 (or 17.9%). The market is offering lower returns on a Petroski DEC, so we have another data point that suggests Andre should be a favorite in a fight that GTDs.P.S. If anyone sees this bet listed at different odds on your book, please comment below or in the community chat!