First Bet at UFC 317 (Patreon)

Hey folks! This bet was placed with NoVig. You can use code "F50880" if you want to sign up at NoVig and they'll give you $25 to bet with. The current best available lines:+225 on Bally Bet+220 on BetRiversWhy bet Kai Kara-France +2xx?1) Kai Kara-France (KKF) was favored to win his first 7 UFC fights in a row. He has been an underdog his last 5 fights in a row, producing a 3-2 record for a 59% ROI.2) KKF is 3 years younger (32 vs. 35) & will have a 2" reach advantage (69" vs. 67")3) Experience vs. Pantoja. This will be a rematch of a Fight from TUF that went to a 2RD DEC.4) Power on the feet: --> KKF 8 UFC knockdowns landed in 12 Fights--> Pantoja has just 4 UFC knockdowns landed in 16 Fights.5) Stats suggest:--> KKF gets hit less (3.2 absorbed per minutes vs. 3.9 for Pantoja)--> KKF defends strikes at a much higher rate (65% vs. 50% for Pantoja)--> KKF has elite takedown defense (~88% vs. 68% for Pantoja) --> KKF has solid submission defense (defended 8/9 attempts faced in UFC)6) Pantoja propensity to fight close?--> Erceg was one bad decision away from winning the title against Pantoja 3-2.--> Pantoja taking the title from Moreno was a competitive SDEC.--> Pantoja lost to Askar Askarov (who KKF defeated) & Figgy via DEC.--> Outlanded on significant strikes in 7/16 UFC Fights.7) Market Moves--> BETONLINE opened KKF +210, peaked +230, currently +195.--> PINNACLE opened KKF +208, peaked +237, currently +194.--> CIRCA opened KKF +205, peaked +230, currently +200.--> BOOKMAKER opened KKF +212, currently +187.8) Market Analysis--> Pikkit suggests 94% of $$ is on Pantoja with 85% of the bets. The line is moving the other way, suggesting that sharp action has come in on the challenger, Kai Kara-France.--> Tapology suggests that 90% of the community is picking Pantoja to win.--> Both betting markets and public opinion polls seem to suggest Pantoja is the overwhelming public side early in the week.--> I would grab +2xx. My gut says this line will close below +200.9) SynopsisMy basic belief on this fight is that Pantoja is only a big favorite if the fight ends via SUB. Both fighters have improved since they met on tough, but KKF looks like an undeserving challenger because he is 1-2 in his last 3 entering this bout. The truth is, he got robbed blind against Amir Albazi, otherwise he would have won 2 fights since losing to Moreno via liver kick stoppage. He was fighting great against Moreno (tied on the cards) and got caught. I think he is a talented fighter who could catch Pantoja on the chin or win a competitive decision. If KKF loses here, it is probably his last crack at a world title. Pantoja has seen the mountain top and he is now in danger of the "over 35 curse" that has been hard for smaller champions to shake. I believe the only modern example under 170lb. is Volkanovski vs. Lopes. Pantoja is a great fighter, but compare his war with Erceg to the domination of Erceg by KKF. I believe the fight is closer than the line entails, hence I placed the bet. I won't be stunned if he gets subbed, but I think he will fight hard for my dollar.