2 New Prop Bets (Wide Odds) (Patreon)

.125U Mayra Bueno Silva KO +1500 (Rivers).125U Mayra Bueno Silva KO5 +8000 (FanDuel)Mayra Bueno Silva is 1-0 career to the KO prop (pre-UFC).Holly Holm was KO'd by Amanda Nunes in the UFC in 2019, her first and only KO loss in MMA. However, Holm was KO'd twice in boxing and KO'd once in Muay Thai so she has suffered at least 4 known KO/TKOs in combat. Holm has been training and fighting since she was 16 years old and she turns 42 in 3 short months. How much longer could she possibly have at the top of the division?Dana White suggested Holm retire after the Nunes fight. He likes Holly Holm and he worries about her health and her ability to compete. He has already said she is a sure fire hall of famer and resigned her for a 6-fight deal so she can't fight outside the UFC. My personal opinion is that Dana will continue to use Holm as a gatekeeper to evaluate prospects until she elects to retire on her own volition.

Dana White Thinks He And Holly Holm Should Talk About Her Future After UFC 239 (forbes.com)

“I think that she needs to take a look at, you know, what’s next for her and what she thinks – and I’m just saying that because I care about her. I care about her as a person. She’s amazing, so, I don’t know. Something we should probably talk about.”

Holm is 1-3 against Brazilians with 2/4 meetings ending via KOLoss vs. Vieira via SDEC (absorbed 80+ SS | nearly submitted)Loss vs. Nunes via KO1 (head kick shut her off real quick)Win vs. Correira via KO3 (Bethe is so bad & unathletic)Loss vs. Cyborg via UDEC (Cyborg Won Rds 3-5 on all cards)Mayra Bueno Silva is saying in interviews this week that she wants to achieve the KO, that she expects it to materialize late, and that she wants to fight all former champions like Amanda Nunes did. Quotes:UFC Vegas 77: Mayra Bueno Silva Wants to Follow in Amanda Nunes' Footsteps, Fight Every Former Champion (cagesidepress.com)“I want to hurt her,” Silva said at Wednesday’s media day. “I want to hurt her for four rounds and then in the fifth round, I knock out Holly.”“I need to knock her out, and she needs to knock me out, too,” Silva said. “When someone wins a good fight, I think they’re next, because nobody wants to watch Julianna Peña vs. Raquel Pennington, sorry.”

"This is my dream, this is my dream to fight with every former champion, because Amanda [Nunes] made history when she won [against] every girl,” stated Silva. “I want to do the same thing.”Bottom Line: I think Silva is live to finish from Round 1 to Round 5 barring a cardio dump. Holm is liable to fall off a cardio cliff or to "get old overnight."  Holm has been using grappling to bail herself out of tough fights for some time and it seems in this fight she won't have that option against a dangerous grappler.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Let's close out with some math talk. Women's Bantamweight fights end ITD 43% of the time including 24% by KOExpected FDGTD Odds of 43% = +132.6 vs. Actual FDGTD Odds of +160 (Best)Expected Ends KO Odds of 24% = +316.7 vs. Actual Ends KO Odds of +370 (Best)Silva has one win via KO/TKO prior to the UFC in 10 career wins. +1500 = 6.3% Implied Win Probability vs. 10% Actual KO Probability To-Date.Average Age of a Women's Bantamweight Fighter = 33 Years OldMBS is 10 years Holm's junior (31). 2 Years Younger than Division Avg. Holm is 8 years older than the average age in the division (9 in Oct)In fights with a 10 year age gap, the younger fighter is winning 70% of iterations including a plurality of wins via KO/TKO. Fighters over 40 win less than any other age cohort in MMA with a 40% (+150 implied) group win rate (over a 350-fighter sample size).