#UFCLondon Gut Leans / First Impressions (Patreon)

Hey guys, I will update my thoughts later in the week when my research process is complete. Before I am biased by any research, noise in the market, etc. I like to get some of my own thoughts down unfettered. Hope it helps ya'll think about this main card. If you have questions, comments concerns fire away!

Main Event:Tom Aspinall (5-1 UFC) vs. Marcin Tybura (11-6 UFC) Tybura has won 7/L8 fights but never really feels like a convincing contender. At 37 years of age he needs to make a move now or he will never get a big opportunity. Tybura has never been submitted, and he hasn't been TKO'd since 2019, but he was TKO'd 4 times in his career and 3 times in his UFC tenure so his chin is not infallible. Aspinall is coming off a first round loss via TKO1 (knee injury) in a main event showcase against Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall is otherwise undefeated in the UFC with 3KO/TKO's and 2 SUB's (100% finish rate). If Aspinall is healthy here, he should be more athletic and a more dynamic finisher. He could be the first fighter to submit Tybura as he was the first to submit Volkov since Maxim Grishin in 2010 and one of only three men in Arlovski's 56 fight PRO career to submit the Pitbull. The line feels a touch wide for a main event with a fighter coming off an injury loss who has been out for a year. Tybura has fought twice since Aspinall's last appearance, winning both contests. Aspinall is the hometown fighter, he is 7 years younger, and he has fought and beaten the higher level of competition lately, but he hasn't been tested much late into fights. Let's discuss common opponents:

Spivak - Tybura veteran DEC, Aspinall destruction TKO1

Arlovski - Tybura veteran DEC, Aspinall SUB2 sneaky TD to RNC

Volkov - Tybura loses UDEC, Aspinall destruction SUB1

Based on the youth and the way he has handled common opponents, Aspinall has to be favored here, but I don't think the ML is tremendous value given the unknowns about his health, his conditioning late and his grappling vs. Tybura. Aspinall has the better chin, he is faster and more powerful, more marketable.Gut Read: Aspinall ITD---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Co-Main Event:

Molly McCann (6-4 UFC) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (1-5 UFC)

McCann back down to earth after losing via SUB1 to Erin Blanchfield at MSG last November. Zooming out McCann won 3/L4 (75%) Fights & 6/L9 (66%) UFC Fights and she has been submitted only twice in her career against Blanchfield (top #5 ranked women's flyweight) and Gillian Robertson in her UFC debut (most SUBs in UFC women's history). McCann lost decisions against Talia Santos and Lara Procopio both jiu jitsu practitioners with UFC wins. Stoliarenko is a classic WMMA archetype; armbar or bust. With 10 career wins (pro/am) via armbar it is no surprise why Stoliarenko attempts the hold, but she relies on it too much. In her last fight with Chelsea Chandler she took the mount in the opening round EARLY and gave up top position looking for the armbar, only to get ground and pound TKO'd shortly there after. Stoliarenko reacts poorly to getting hit, she struggles to make the scale (now cutting to 125lb. somehow??? after weight complications at 135lb.), and her only DEC win was a split decision in Invicta. Stoliarenko is not very trustworthy.

Gut Read: Molly McCann KO (Fight Goes Under; Julija SUB1 live)

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Featured Bout:

Nathaniel Wood (6-2) vs. Andre Fili (10-8; 1NC in UFC)

Nathaniel Wood another local market fighter, 2-0 as a featherweight (2x UDEC) after mixed results at bantamweight. Fili is a tenured UFC featherweight but he is 33 years of age, he has been finished 4 times in the UFC and he is 2-3 in his L5 figths with both wins coming via SDEC. Wood is only 29 and he is continuing to improve on his skills. Wood got a much cleaner victory against common opponent Charles Jourdain. Fili doesn't show any terrible losses on his resume but he is getting older and trending towards a .500 UFC fighter while Wood is being given favorable matchups and card placement in a local market fight. I think UFC is rooting for Wood and he may be able to catch Fili on the chin or drag him down to the mat. Fili's losses in the UFC include Brito (TKO1), Mitchell (UDEC), Yusuff (UDEC), Johnson (SDEC), Kattar (UDEC; Kattar's UFC debut), Yair (KO2), Pepey (SUB2; flying triangle), Holloway (SUB1; Guillotine). Wood recorded 3 SUB wins in a row to start his UFC career but hasn't finished a fight since. This fight against Fili could be the UFC giving him an opportunity to finish a tough veteran at home in London, but he may have to grit out a third UDEC to beat a fighter like Fili who never quits but can be caught.

Gut Read: Nathaniel Wood UDEC Andre Fili

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Andre Muniz (5-1 UFC) vs. Paul Craig (8-6-1)

Muniz coming back pretty quickly after getting smoked by Brendan Allen in a pseudo-UFC main event. Spann/Krylov was canceled on short notice pushing Allen/Muniz into the main event slot last minute. The bout remained scheduled for 3x5 minute rounds but Muniz gassed out horribly and was submitted in Rd. 3 despite being a well credentialed black belt. Muniz has beaten a questionable level of competition with his best wins being submissions over an ancient Jacare Souza and a tough to submit Eryk Anders. Muniz also grapple fucked Uriah Hall for 15 minutes and grinded out ugly 15 minute fights against Bruno Assis and Antonio Arroyo. Paul Craig is making a quick turnaround after being KO'd by Johnny Walker in March in Brazil. He is also changing weight divisions at age 35. Craig is a fun fighter who is easy to get behind, very marketable, but he is not very durable on the feet. He is making his way down to 185lb. for the first time so I will need to see him make weight / how he looks to evaluate his middleweight frame. Craig is 3-4 career to the KO/TKO prop and he was KO'd 4 times in 6 UFC losses. Craig has only been submitted once via kimura against Jim Crute in the third round back in 2018. Craig is coming off two straight losses but he had been riding a 6-fight unbeaten streak into the Volkan Oezdemir fight that was snapped by Volkan (UDEC) and followed up by a rapid KO1 loss against Johnny Walker. Craig will need to tire out Muniz to win this fight and avoid getting KO'd by Muniz who is underrated on the feet while fresh. Craig is a live underdog if he can manage the weight because he can typically push for the full 15 minutes and he has elite wins over Krylov, Hill, and Ankalaev. Despite Muniz having better BJJ credentials, his MMA effectiveness has been called into question by the Allen fight. That being said, Muniz is world class on the mat and Paul Craig is no Brendan Allen on the feet. Muniz is going to be looking to get back on track and he is 2 years younger than Craig.

Craig = 2-1 in London (triangles over Ankalaev & Krylov, lost UDEC to Volkan)

Craig = 2-1-1 against Brazilian Fighters (Draw & Win vs. Shogun, beat Luis Henrique Da Silva via SUB2, lost to Johnny Walker via KO1 last fight in March)

Gut Read: Andre Muniz defeats Paul Craig via Rd. 1 Finish

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Fares Ziam vs. Jai Herbert

Farez Ziam is a French fighter who is 3-2 in the UFC with a SUB1 loss to Terrance McKinney, a UDEC loss against Don Madge (no longer with the promotion) in his UFC debut and three forgetable wins against Michael Figlak (8-0 debutant), Luigi Vendramini (9-1, 1-3 UFC, no longer with the promotion), and Jamie Mullarkey (controversial decision, many felt Mullarkey deserved the nod). I don't rate Ziam very highly but at 26 years old, training with Kill Cliff FC he is only going to continue to improving. Jai Herbert is a 35 year old English fighter with dangerous strikes, a somewhat functional ground game and a shaky chin. Herbert has been KO'd twice in the UFC in vicious fashion by Ilia Topuria and Francisco Trinaldo. He was also rapidly submitted by Renato Moicano, a fringe ranked lightweight. Herbet has a solid resume overall, but going to a draw against Klein in his last fight and failing to finish Kyle Nelson the fight prior failed to inspire confidence. Herbet still carries power and he can fight okay over the course of fifteen minutes, but he doesn't do much to distinguish himself on the scorecards. Ziam can match some of Hertbert's length and physicality, so Herbert's only outright advantages may be power & submission upside. Barring a finish, Ziam will likely outwork and outpoint Herbert slightly. For whatever reason I think the activity and experience of Herbert will win the day here.

Gut Read: Jai Herbert defeats Fares Ziam via Club/SUB1