REMINDER: Marcos Rogerio De Lima ML (Patreon)

I bet this at -113 prior to the last UFC and it was on my BetMMA screenshot I posted before the event, but the line is continuing to move so I wanted to remind folks in case you want to try to beat the line movement. Odds comparison:

-125 Fanduel / Bet365 / Circa

-130 Caesars / BetRivers / PointsBet

-135 Wynn / DraftKings / Betway

-138 Pinnacle

-145 BetOnline

Still a heavyweight fight so the volatility is obvious. But let's talk about the upside:Lewis is 1-4 in his last 5 fights vs. De Lima 4-1 in his last 5 fights.5/8 career losses for De Lima (63%) via Submission & 5/6 (83%) UFC losses.

Derrick Lewis is 1-2 career to the SUB prop with 0 UFC wins via SUB.De Lima is the better wrestler & grappler in this matchup. (Stats Support It)

Accuracy: 47% De Lima vs. 26% Lewis

Defense: 59% De Lima vs. 52% Lewis

TDs / 15 Mins: 1.35 De Lima vs. .59 Lewis

SUB Attempts / 15 Mins: .5 De Lima vs. 0 LewisDe Lima has never been knocked down in the UFC in 17 fights (+6 KD)Since 2020 Lewis avg. 15.4 sig strikes landed per fight (3:2 KD Ratio)

The #'s for Lewis Last 5 Fights Particularly Jarring:0 Strikes Landed vs. Spivac (Spivac 6 TD's, 12 strikes, 1 SUB attempt)4 Strikes Landed vs. Pavlovich (Pavlovich 1 KD)27 Strikes Landed vs. Tuivasa (Tuivasa 1 KD)14 Strikes Landed vs. Daukaus (Lewis 1 KD)16 Strikes Landed vs. Gane (98 Strikes for Gane TKO3)

OVERALL: I think De Lima is the fresher fighter despite being the same age. I think De Lima is the faster fighter with better durability standing, better variety to his offense (punching, kicking, & takedowns) and the better grappler in this matchup. De Lima should arguably be on a 6 fight win streak having dropped a narrow decision against Blagoy Ivanov. The American Top Team product continues to show improvement inside the octagon while Lewis is showing huge regression in his game and appearing disinterested in his fights.