NEW BET: +$ Money Line (Patreon)

I just bet .5U on Daniel Barez ML +105 on Caesars NY.Why do I like the Barez side after tape?1) Very aggressive finisher, nearly choked out Carlos Hernandez in Rd. 1 on DWCS, also rocked him on the feet and pushed a hellacious pace over 15 (gassed around 12.5 mins after having Hernandez on his back for 3 minutes in the second round). Since racked up 4 straight Rd. 1 finishes on the regionals to get the UFC call.2) Filho has been fighting youngsters and inexperienced guys like Muhammad Mokaev (talented but raw) & Roybert Echeverria (more hype than substance) each with less than 10 professional fights. Barez downside is he is 34 at flyweight but he is a fully formed fighter with a high level of motivation and a great breadth and depth of experience. Barez has 21 pro contests compared to 17 for Filho so he will have the experience edge and he has momentum on his side with wins in 4 of his L5 fights and 9 of his L10 fights.3) Barez was a pick 'em price with a very tough Carlos Hernandez and it looked like a pick 'em fight so I think getting him at +$ here is a fair look. Filho is seeing 68% of the reported handle at VSIN and 84% of tapology votes are on Filho to win yet bookmakers are dealing slight +$ on Barez? Seems like sharp customers on Barez on and the general public looking at straight plays and parlays on Filho because he almost submitted Mokaev. Mokaev is a grapple first fighter whereas Barez is well-rounded and happy to strike on the feet. Filho has been finishes in the third round twice in his career so he may not have the cardio edge people expect.Danger: The reason this is only a .5U play is Barez is making a UFC debut (introduces  additional variance), we may get a better price late in the week, and Barez has been rocked and nearly submitted before so he is not invincible. But I would line Barez an outright favorite after revisiting the tape (-125 or 55%). Barez hits as hard or harder and I think he is tougher than Filho personally. Filho seems like a SUB or bust fighter with a decent left hook and steroids. Since 2017 Filho is 5-2 (only 7 fights compared to 10 for Barez) with two finish losses against Luan Matheus (now 14-7-1 as a Pro) & Muhammad Mokaev (finished him via SUB with a destroyed knee and less than 1 minute on the clock). I think if this becomes a battle of wills the Spaniard takes it.

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