Current Thoughts on #UFC291 (Prelims) (Patreon)

Maverick (-270) vs. Cachoeira (+230)

- Maverick on short notice, smaller fighter, -23% ROI as a favorite, lost as -233 favorite last fight vs. Jasudavicious, lost as a short favorite against Blanchfield & Barber. 2-2 on PPV cards.

- Cachoeira been a dog in every UFC fight, better historical bet. Cashed as a +185 vs. Lipski, as a +200 vs. Ji Yeon Kim, as a +185 vs. Mazany, and as a +180 vs. Dobson. Maverick a level above all thos fighters so this is a step up in competition for Cachoeira. Since 2020 Cachoeira is 4-1. 1-2 on PPV.

Conclusion: Dog or Pass on the money line. Cachoeira is tough, making improvements. Maverick should win by SUB (+200), less than I would want, but she took damage in her last fight, her striking is still a work in progress, Cachoeira's only SUB losses are against high quality fighters (Shevchenko and Robertson).

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Semelsberger (-210) vs. Medic (+180)

- Semelsberger more UFC experience, natural WW vs. a former LW in Medic. 4" reach advantage,   huge power based on the numbers (ridiculous KD rate), tough under fire, poor TD defense.-Medic on short notice, coming off an injury, cardio is not very proven and this fight will take place at altitude. Medic coming up to 170lb., no high caliber UFC wins, loss to Jalin Turner is reasonable in a short notice UFC debut. 

-Both 30 year old prospects, round one should be competitive but I expect Semelsberger to take over in an extended fight more often than not. Semi has dropped winnable fights against the likes of Alex Morono, Khaos Williams, and Jeremiah Wells so he is not someone I like betting at big chalk but he is a solid underdog with good physicality and an enticing KD ratio.

Conclusion: Probably smart to PASS or bet Semi live after round one. Medic could land shots early and make this competitive, but I expect Semi has better cardio and size, solid durability and power, and more preparation to push hard for 15 minutes at altitude. Semi early lines got steamed and I think it was sharp action.

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CJ Vergara (-150) vs. Salvador (+125)

- CJ Vergara is a tough guy with good cardio but he doesn't have much + level skills. He has some power and willingness to exchange but he can be hurt and rocked, he can get taken down, and he can be exploited by opponents on the mat. I faded Vergara big against Tatsuro Taira. Vergara has a smaller frame than Salvador. This is his second fight as a UFC favorite, last time he bested Daniel Lacerda after getting rocked and sprinting away comically in Rd. 1.

- Vinicius Salvador is a bit janky on the feet and his cardio could let him down in this spot. Salvador has been training in Vegas at American Top Team Nevada, seems to be working on his jiu jitsu. I think Salvador is easy to take down but active off his back and Vergara isn't a committed takedown threat in most fights. Salvador has power on the feet and he swings recklessly. I think someone probably gets finished in this fight because Vergara likes to apply pressure and Salvador fires most strikes with 100% power and intention.

Conclusion: Salvador SUB / Ends by SUB both seem wide to me in the prop market. Neither one of these guys super trustworthy but at elevation my gut says Vergara either gets finished in Rd. 1 or figures this guy out and finishes him down the stretch. Salvador beat the breaks off Shannon Ross but Ross has a terrible chin and Vergara is a tough guy with a good chin. Salvador should grapple more than he does, but his social media makes me think he will wrestle/grapple here. Going to investigate these props.

Salvador SUB/DEC?

Salvador SUB +1400 (BJJ Black Belt, training at ATT Nevada)

Salvador/Vergara Ends SUB +700

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Jake Matthews (-245) vs. Darrius Flowers (+215)

- Matthews is a UFC lifer but he is unreliable chalk (9-5; -7.7% ROI) and he is coming off a performance in which he was KD 3 times in 15 minutes by Matthew Semelsberger. Matthews also had a cancelled bout in May with Gabe Green due to injury. With 4 KDs absorbed against a dangerous finisher like Flowers, I don't love it. That being said, Matthews is a BJJ black belt with solid enough wrestling (I bet him via SUB against Semi but he got dropped instantly) and decent power of his own with 5:4 UFC KD ratio.- Flowers is a virtual unknown. He has horrible regional tape but huge natural physical attributes,  he has shown improvement over time, and he is starting to get to an optimal weight class. Flowers has competed as high as 200lb. in boxing but he shows an alarming amount of KO losses across combat sports, he has been submitted a number of times, and he has stated a desire to go down to lightweight. He accepted this fight as a short notice replacement.Conclusion: Matthews *should* win but he is hard for me to trust. Flowers fight style, recklessness, and historical cardio dumps could facilitate a Matthews finish in any round, but it may also allow Flowers to maximize his round one win-equity and blast Matthews fresh off 3 KD's. IMHO the under 2.5 (-225) is interesting. Flowers should force a ton of exchanges.

------------------------------------------------------Roman Kopylov (-200) vs. Claudio Riberio (+170)

- Kopylov trains with good guys, tough enough kid. Came over with lots of plaudits from Russia but got washed by Duraev who has flamed out so to speak in the UFC. Kopylov has two UFC wins over Soriano (impressive showing) and Di Chirico (1-5 in his L6 I believe cut from UFC). He lost to Karl Roberson (former kickboxer, current felon) via submission in his UFC debut and reacted poorly to low kicks. His last two opponents were limited and made Kopylov look good.

- Riberio got a win over can Joseph Holmes last time out. Holmes is not athletic enough for the UFC level, but he tried to implement his low kicks and range tools and got overwhelmed by the pressure, the takedowns, and the ground and pound of Riberio. Riberio lost to Abdul Razak, don't hold that too much against him. Probably should've wrestled more but he had some success with his low kicks, just got hurt and finished by a dangerous striker. Riberio is a little goofy at times but he is dangerous. He even showed good instincts when taken down by Holmes, digging an underhook and popping right up to his feet.

Conclusion: Kopylov is a better striker in this matchup but Riberio has a 1" height advantage, a 2" reach advantage, and he is the younger fighter by 1 year. Riberio can mix in takedowns and top control in this fight to create an advantage. Dog or pass money line in my humble opinion. Kopylov was just fighting for his UFC contract, now first fight on a new deal, on PPV as big favorite. Most of Kopylov's fighting has been done in Russia, this fight is at elevation (USA). Going to investigate those props as well.

Riberio ITD +275

Riberio DEC +800

Riberio SUB +2000 / Ends SUB

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See my other posts for thoughts on Lewis vs. De Lima. I have heard that this is Lewis' retirement fight, trying to independently verify that. I bet De Lima -113 but wouldn't bet -225 (current best available price). Ends by SUB +600 or so is interesting. Both men capable of being subbed. Not sure if both men capable of pulling it off but De Lima majority of losses via SUB, his SUB price very similar to the ends by SUB.

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Gabriel Bonfim (-300) vs. Trevin Giles (+250)

- Bonfim looks like a solid prospect but his striking defense is extremely porous for the division and he has taken clean shots from Trey Waters and Mounir Lazzez despite scoring quick finishes. Bonfim's brother was just exposed on the mat by Benoit St. Denis after absorbing too many strikes too quickly in Rd. 1. I think Gabriel is the better Bonfim and I think his jiu jitsu is class but Giles never been submitted prior to round three and Bonfim tends to finish quick.

- Giles is not a fighter I like very much historically but he has a potent jab and he can look solid at distance when he actually throws strikes. Since moving to welterweight, Giles is starting to rattle off wins against low level fighters but he hasn't looked particularly convincing while doing so. This fight is probably going to be a wild affair with an aggressive Bonfim, but Giles could potentially surprise the young man with his underrated grappling chops and his power on the feet. Giles has a 3:3 KD ratio in the UFC with all but one KD coming at 185lb. Giles has only been a full time fighter for a short time period and he has way more UFC experience at only 30 years of age. 

Conclusion: I think Bonfim projects much higher long term, but Giles is the money line side IMHO. He has a ton of UFC experience, proven ability to fight for 15 minutes (even if greasy), and he has wins over talented opponents like Roman Dolidze and Preston Parsons.