My Square Takes Come With My Sharp Takes (Patreon)

On a card with many difficult fights to pick, this matchup has stood out among fans and handicappers. Chiesa has the longest octagon layoff of anyone on the card, and he was dealing with back injuries the last few times we saw him compete. Now Chiesa says he feels healthy, and he showed up looking in incredible shape, so it seems he has done the work necessary to prepare. Holland is a fighter I have had tremendous success betting, but I have had to temper my expectations for him somewhat over the years. Holland has tons of experience and confidence in his abilities, but he doesn’t always maximize his win equity. For example, after he hurt Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, he let him up from the ground and allowed Wonderboy to recover and eventually finish the fight. Holland scored a big KO in his last fight, and he is always live to finish his opponents with a slick front head lock game and huge power in his right straight.

Chiesa will be looking to continue his streak of takedowns in the UFC while Holland will be looking to punish errant takedown attempts, counter overaggressive grappling sequences from Chiesa, and find his opportunities to create damage quickly. I think this fight is a scramble fest that ends by SUB more often than not, and if Chiesa is unable to secure it early, he may self-immolate deeper in exchanges.

Prediction: Kevin Holland defeats Michael Chiesa via SUB1 (D’Arce Choke)