Gut Leans for #UFCNashville & Announcements (Patreon)

A few people wrote messages asking if I could provide my leans for the card. I want to provide you guys my first gut level leans early in the week but acknowledge up front that these are just *leans* and my picks may change over the course of the week with the benefit of additional research. Also, if you guys have any specific questions, never hesitate to ask! I will be uploading some early footage for the August 12th card (Luque vs. RDA) for any folks trying to get ahead on their tape study for future events.Cory Sandhagen (opened -200 on BOL now steamed to -300)-Font was supposed to fight in Boston. Good fighter but seems like a gatekeeper in the division to me. Sandhagen seems like a future title challenger. Younger, similar size. I think Sandhagen is the better grappler here, more diverse strikes but Font potent jab, you would think his preparation for the Boston card was all-in. Don't love the price in an elite BTW matchup.Tatiana Suarez (opened -700 on BOL now dropped to -350)-If her weight cut back to 115 goes well, I see this being a Suarez win. She is a dominant wrestler who is rapidly improving and becoming more dangerous as a grappler with Patchy Mix (her boyfriend and Bellator 135lb. Grand Prix Champion). Suarez has an elite wrestling background and pretty absurd physicality. I don't like Andrade's frequency of competition, she is fighting too much, losing, and not going back to the drawing board. Andrade was favored in both of her last two losses and now she is a big dog taking action early. Curious where this line ends up.Kennedy Nzechukwu (opened +105 now dropped to -140)-Tricky fight between two light heavyweights but there is a lot of inherent volatility. Kennedy plus attributes (reach, height, age), trains with Fortis MMA (solid gym in Texas). I think Nzechukwu is a bit hittable against a former kickboxing champion so maybe eyeing the under here makes sense. If Nzechukwu SUB is a ridiculous price that could be interesting. Last fight showed his willingness to pursue and Jacoby isn't much of a grappler. The KO1 win for Jacoby vs. common opponent Da Un Jung enough to give me pause.Gavin Tucker (opened -141, now flipped to +130 underdog)-Tucker has burnt me before. His chin is suspect with a 0:3 KD ratio in the division. The reason this is compelling matchmaking is because Lopes has only 8 wins via KO as a professional and none were over high-quality competition. Both men are blackbelts with Lopes teaching at Lobo gym in Mexico and Tucker studying under Renzo Gracie of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Tucker is one of the best Canadians on the roster in my view, only two losses to Ricky Glenn when he got hurt early and fought like a dog and the Ige fight (last time out in March 2021) when he was finished in the first round by a massive punch. I think Lopes is live to KO him simply because of his chin and his age, but skill for skill Tucker should have better wrestling and better technical striking. Tucker landed over 100 strikes and 7 takedowns against Billy Quarantillo, proving that he has 15 minutes worth of cardio to fight at a high pace. Not playing at current odds but I could see myself betting Tucker before the end of the week if the line keeps moving towards Lopes.Aleksa Camur (opened +160, now down to +135)-Tanner Boser can be a fun fighter but he is really struggling to maintain a UFC-level. He lost 4 of his last 5 fights including a KO1 against Ion Cutelaba last time out. Boser used to compete at heavyweight but he dropped down to light heavyweight and is now 0-1 in the new weight class with a KO loss. He was losing at HWT but the fights were contentious split decisions he lost based on wrestling. Now he is on the last fight of his contract, his wrestling still looks porous, his guard game is still fairly static, and his chin can be called into question. Boser's style is so unfavorable to the judges he has lost fights to Nascimento, Arlovski, and Latifi despite out landing each man by 25 or more significant strikes. Camur was outwrestled by William Knight and lost a split decision to Nicolae Negumereanu despite landing over 100 significant strikes. Camur is still just 27 years of age and has been out of the octagon for over a year, so he could present a much better form in this fight. Boser has been criticizing the UFC and the Rock for his part in a brand shoe deal, and that won't help his case for another contract. I am not bullish on this fight because of the amount of unknowns but Camur just projects higher to me. He is not a good fighter but he is young and athletic. Boser is experienced but mid age and average skill.

Ignacio Bahamondes (opened -250, now down to -210)-Klein is an interesting challenge for Bahamondes because he will mix in takedown attempts, he has some power in his striking, and he is another young, international prospect. Bahamondes is a Chilean fighter by way of Valle Flow Striking Academy in Chicago, Illinois. Klein is training at Spartakus Fight Gym in Slovakia. Klein seems like he is on insane PEDS but Bahamondes looks in good shape too, training with Belal Muhammad and Yair Rodriguez. Klein is a Southpaw with some ability to wrestle but I think Bahamondes eventually wears him down and catches him. Probably going to keep an eye on Rd. 3 props. Kyler Phillips (opened -200, now down to -210)-Raoni Barcelos is certainly a live underdog here because he is highly skilled everywhere. That being said, Phillips lost a majority DEC to Raulian Paiva (close fight) and he could otherwise be undefeated in the UFC right now. Phillips has a unanimous decision win over Song Yadong that has aged like fine win, but he has been unable to capitalize and build momentum. His last win over Marcelo Rojo was a sweet Rd. 3 SUB that cashed us a +550 wins by SUB ticket, but has hasn't competed since and that was last February. Phillips trains at the Lab in Arizona, he is 1" taller with a 5" reach advantage over Barcelos and Barcelos is making a 6-month turn around after getting flatlined by Umar Nurmagomedov in the first round. Barcelos has lost 3 of his last 4 and been getting hurt, stunned, and hit more cleanly each fight. As a 36 year old bantamweight, we have to start asking hard questions about Barcelos durability and staying power in the division. Phillips is only 28, he should be coming back refreshed, and he is a dangerous fighter.Jeremiah Wells (opened -210, now down to -155)-Think I like the under 2.5 (-160) more than either side here. Both dangerous fighters.-I like Wells because he can take folks down and control them, he can blast people out of there on the feet, and he can fight hard for 15 minutes. Wells and recent UFC newcomer Basil Haffez had an absolute war on the regional scene that ended in a DRAW and Wells has continued to impress in the big show. Harris got bonked by Shavkat Rakhmonov and brutally finished but he bounced back with a UDEC over Jared Gooden. Harris is a dangerous fighter in all phases but Wells is competent on the mat. He is also short, stocky, and difficult to get a hold of. I assume Harris could KO him on the feet but Wells has never been KO'd and Harris has been multiple times in the first round so give me Wells here. Think he blasts him out early in a one round classic.Damon Jackson (opened +150, currently +150)- Damon Jackson has only lost to Movlid Khabyulaev, Ilia Topuria, and Dan Ige since 2019 (all via KO). He is a highly skilled grappler and wrestler with takedown upside in most matchups. Since returning to the UFC in 2018, Jackson has secured 3 finish victories and 2 UDEC's with both losses coming against top-10 ranked featherweights.- Damon Jackson (5-2 UFC since 2020) vs. Billy Quarantillo (5-3 UFC) - Billy Q is favored despite coming off a brutal, horrific KO loss in mid-April. Billy also lost to Shane Burgos in a lob-sided UDEC in 2021, and he was UDEC'd by Gavin Tucker (gave up 7 TDs and over 100 sig strikes absorbed) in late 2020.- Common Opponent: Both men have a win over Kamuela Kirk but Jackson looked cleaner and more clinical in getting to his positions.- Billy Q likes to be the advantage grappler in a matchup; I think it will bother him that Jackson is the superior wrestler-grappler.Cody Durden (opened +150, currently +145)- This is a fun, contentious flyweight scrap. Durden seems to be improving fight over fight as a member of the American top team roster. He understands that his strengths are on the mat and he seems committed to keeping fights there. Durden is +15 TDs and +1KD in his last three fights with a 3-0 record and wins over Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and JP Buys. Durden is showing himself rounding into form and I don't think we can count him out. I forgive the losses to Mokaev and Flick. Hadley could have success here if he can keep it on the feet as he is likely to have the volume edge standing. However, the desire to secure submissions could lent itself to Hadley getting stuck on bottom and losing pivotal exchanges in the eyes of the judges. Durden could get submitted here but if he follows the gameplan laid out by Allan Nascimento he could beat Hadley here. Should be a good fight. Durden SC = NA could be interesting.Don't know shit about Asu Almabaev. I will study him and then get back to ya'll!