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First Two Official Bets #UFC292 (Patreon)

Published:
2023-08-16 03:43:20
Imported:
2026-10
Tags:

Content

These two bets were placed based on the odds, the long term read I have had on both fighters, and theoretical upside. Both Plus $ props!

The bets are:

.5U Weili Zhang via SUB +600 (FanDuel).5U Zhang/Lemos ends via SUB +430 (Wynn/FanDuel)This fight is lined -325 (76.5%) to end Inside the Distance on BetOnlineZhang ITD is lined -160 (61.5%) after opening -135 (57.5%) on BetOnline.Zhang SUB is lined +390 (20.4%) after opening +375 (21.1%) on BetOnline.+430 indicates only 18.9% of the finishing equity in this fight is in a Submission.+600 indicates only 14.3% of the time Weili Zhang wins via Submission.Zhang is 8-0 career to the SUB prop and looked career best last fight.Zhang has 2 wins via SUB in the UFC, attempts .5 SUBs per fifteen minutes.Lemos is 3-1 career to the SUB prop, attempts .7 SUBs per fifteen minutes.2 of Lemos L3 Fights Ended Via SUB (66.7%) & 3 of her L8 Fights (37.5%)1 of Zhangs L3 Fights Ended Via SUB (33.3%) & 2 of her L8 Fights (25%)Zhang recently promoted to a BJJ brown belt.Lemos was submitted in Rd. 1 in meme like fashion by Andrade.Andrade by SUB was +600 the night she submitted Lemos.DraftKings opened +700, down to +550 on Zhang via SUB.BetRivers opened +650, down to +550 on Zhang via SUB.BetWay opened +400, held steady.

Files

Comments

Gray Spahn

If we already bet Zhang by sub, why not bet Lemos by sub at +1300 instead of the fight ends by sub for either fighter?

Liam Picks Fights

Ends by SUB is a stackable hedge. This means if we are right about Zhang SUB, we cash both. If we are wrong and Lemos gets the SUB, we still profit! Zhang SUB is +390 on sharp books, so +600 is +EV. Hope this helps! Happy to explain more

CJ Lyon

this info is unreal 🤣 the amount of effort you put into this each day is incredible!

CJ Lyon

unreal odds imo I think Zhang can get the sub

Liam Picks Fights

No stone left unturned is my goal each & every event. I value everyone who supports my work and I want to give you my best!

Liam Picks Fights

By the way folks FanDuel has adjusted down to +410, but you can still get +430 if you have access to Wynn Bet!

Gray Spahn

I may just be dumb here, and I apologize because I don't get it. I have to use real money to ask my question, and it's that's why I can't make it work, let me know. If we have $50 on WZ by Sub and $50 on Fight ends in Sub and the fight ends with a WZ sub we win $515, if fights ends in a AL Sub we win $165.. But if it's 50 on WZ by Sub and 50 on AL by sub, and the fight ends in AL by sub we win $600. That seems like a better hedge to me, but I understand I may be missing something. Not trying to be a pain, legitimately trying to learn.

Liam Picks Fights

Hey Gray sorry just seeing this. No worries at all, happy to explain. I added .5U to my position on Zhang/Lemos ends SUB at +430 (if you look through the UFC 292 tag you'll see the update posts). So the position was: 1U Ends by SUB +430 (.5 on FanDuel & .5U on Wynn Bet) to win 4.3U - The reason I added was market dropped on FanDuel, showing support - .5U Weili Zhang by SUB +600 (.5U on FanDuel) to win 3U - The reason I bet Weili is I thought both Ends SUB & Weili SUB were mispriced. However, Lemos has cashed on the SUB props before, but at odds of +1600 and above. Her odds at +1400 and below were simply not as tempting to me. I felt ends by SUB & Weili SUB were superior +EV positions. I could be wrong, but that's the beauty of the ends by SUB. ---------- Potential Outcomes: (1.5U Total Risk) - Any SUB = No Downside. If Lemos wins by SUB, we lose .5U on Weili & Profit ~3.8U overall. If Zhang wins by SUB, we profit ~7.3U overall. --- Never a dumb question in here my brother! If this wasn't clarifying feel free to comment or message me. Thanks for your inquiry