Post Event Accountability (Patreon)

Gross reverse sweep at UFC 292. Sorry to everyone, especially if this was your first event. Last week, we hit on Amorim KO +1600 and Dulgarian Rd. 1 +600. When you play these big +$ numbers, sometimes you will look like a genius and sometimes you will look like a dummy. If I had the slate to do over again:1U Ends SUB +430 1U Garry ITD -135 .25U Garry SUB +650 .125U SUB2 +2100.125U SUB3 +3800 .25U Petroski/GM3 Ends KO +320 .25U Silva/Lee Ends SUB +360Then we would have had the same EV upside, only 3U total of risk, and I would've felt better about the loss. The Ends Via Method Document is still a work in progress so I will size down those bets until I feel better about establishing a specific edge and a matching bet amount. What I always stress to folks is I am a good bettor, but I am not infallible. Use all the resources I create and all the information I cultivate to make the best bets you feel comfortable with. All the bets I took tonight I feel comfortable with, the only things I would change are some small tweaks to sizing. That being said, my leans, picks, and analysis were on point for many of the fights I didn't bet tonight, so never feel limited to just what I am targeting. I like to target underdogs and submission props. Tonight was a night of big favorites and fights going to DEC. Those nights will be hard for me to win by and large with my strategy and approach. Always right back to work for me. God bless, much love. We'll get em back next week!