DWCS Week 4 Final Leans & Best Bets (Patreon)

Main Event:Lean towards the Prates (favorite) and the under.Best Bet(s): Prates SUB +1200 (BetWay) - Personally betting this for .25U & tracking on BetMMAOR Ends SUB +600 (FanDuel) if you think the dog is live.Under 1.5 (+105) - Prates has been KO'd early before, Ramirez has power.OR the ITD (-120) vs. -150 on sharper outfitsI think that Ramirez will be trying to take this to the ground, the kicks of Prates are nasty and he is capable of landing a club and sub here or submitting Ramirez from his back.Prates opened -115 pick em here so value on ML long ago been extracted. No need to force a bet after line has moved nearly 20%.Co-Main Event:Lean towards Yousri (-115 favorite) via KOFormer Glory Kickboxer, elite striking differential and wins, Tulio been KO'd before by a regional level fighter. I think this is a set up. Line flipped instantly on opener to Yousri favorite.Silva SUB +650 arguably his best path, got smashed on the offshore markets to +300 from +800 opener so if you like the Silva side I would think SUB or DEC +400 would be his most likely path.Best Bet(s): Yousri (-115) or pass IMHO. A little tall man's defense, not the best grappling so laying heavy chalk not ideal but I think at slight chalk he the side. I would favor him here ~60%. Personally passing. Don't have access to the # in NY/NJ.Feature Bout:Vogel DEC +550 makes no sense to me (2-1 in DEC, only loss to UFC's Da'mon Blackshear). He is a primary SUB fighter but he has a win via UDEC where he dominated and got a ton of TD's against another top Canadian prospect in Serhiy Sidey (fighting next week on DWCS) threatening with chokes and applying smothering pressure. He is also live to win this fight by SUB +200 with Cuamba showing 2 losses PRO/AM by SUB. Cuamba has decent striking but he is fighting a low level of competition. I think Vogel is the more proven fighter here. He opened -300 and all the money coming in on Cuamba it seems or on Vogel by SUB. Hence why I am looking at the contrarian Vogel DEC. But Cuamba is live because Vogel is a walking disaster on the feet, constantly absorbing damage even in wins like the Amrfield fight. I think Vogel gets it done here but not convicted enough to lay chalk.Best Bet(s): Pass or Sprinkle on Vogel DEC +550 or Cuamba KO +540 as contrarian looks Heavyweights:Petersen seems like the side to me. He opened a big favorite, he steamed all the way out to -800 and now he is back to roughly where he stared at -365 (opened -350). Cole has been finished via TKO 4 times between the regionals and an exhibition bout on TUF. Petersen has more speed and power and I think he is the more effective wrestler and top position grappler of the two. It's a HWT fight so it invites some volatility but I think Petersen will get on top and finish this man so the fight ending by SUB +750 / Petersen SUB +1100 when he is -315 to win ITD and most of his finishes come on the ground. He has attempted Keylocks/Americanas before in his fights, he takes the back in his fights, and he secured multiple takedowns and passes on UFC level fighter Waldo Cortes-Acosta before eventually being felled by a hard combination in a third round of a title fight. Petersen striking defense not worth trusting at this chalk but I think betting the SUB prop is sound when his opponent habitually gets finished from failed TD attempts on his knees.Opener: Lightweight MatchupDylan Salvador is a former Glory Kickboxer, high level wins, big, strong opponent who may start faster than him and may be able to leverage size to get on top and secure takedowns and positions. Salvador is not a fish off his back having trained with ATT Atlanta for some time but he is also not a world beater, he is fighting low level fighters to SDEC. I think Salvador can win this fight but I don't feel comfortable backing him at chalk. Oki is a tough guy, durable, powerful, can mix in TDs and he doesn't look out of place anywhere in a fight. Seems like a touch better athlete but the better skills especially standing are with Salvador. Salvador is 0-1 in DEC and Oki 2-1 in DEC so both guys have a lot to prove here, still green enough, both durable, should be sound enough everywhere to fight the full 15 I would think. Salvador KO is live, nasty knees.Best Bet(s): Over 2.5 -115 | Goes to DEC +112 | Salvador DEC +240 | Oki DEC +380