Write Up For First 5 Bets (Patreon)

1U Chimaev ITD (-106)

I think we are getting the younger, fresher, more dangerous fighter with a SUB & KO path at a fair price. Chimaev finished 3/3 Ammy Fights, 11/12 Pro Fights, & Usman finishes in 2/3 pro losses.1U Victor Henry ML (+450)

I think we are getting a generous price on a highly skilled, experienced fighter. Henry has never been finished in 25+ professional fights and he has landed over 150 significant strikes in 2/3 UFC fights. Josh Barnett has been coaching Henry throughout his career and he will be cornering him once again in Abu Dhabi. Henry is a worldly fighter with a long list of experiences against quality competition and if he was fighting in Vegas he would probably be +250 or so in this spot. If Henry is able to defend takedowns, work back up to his feet or threaten with submissions I think he will outland his opponent. Basharat has not finished any of his opponents in his first three UFC bouts and he has given up takedowns and absorbed clean strikes on a few occasions.

.25U Victor Henry SUB (+2000)

Victor Henry is 8-0 career to the SUB. Basharat given up 2 TD's in each of his last two fights.Henry attempting .7SUB's per 15 mins.Line movement on BOL +2200 to +850 strong sign of sharp support. 1U Muhammad Naimov ML (+275)

Naimov is a dangerous puncher who recorded a win at 155lb. via KO in his last fight and now he is fighting a former 135lb. fighter on a 3 fight win streak (recency bias) who was knocked down twice in two rounds against Andre Fili in his last fight. If Naimov is able to stuff takedowns, he will compete hard on the feet, he is hard to finish, and he may have the local crowd support.1U Naimov/Wood FDGTD (+106)

Naimov is hittable and at a grappling disadvantage so it is possible he could be finished by an experienced fighter in Nathaniel Wood but I think the root of this misprice is underrating the KO equity of a natural FWT vs a natural BTW. Naimov will be the bigger fighter with heavier punches and I think he is the better prepared athlete. Both fighters have clear paths to a finish. Naimov was 10-8'd by Colin Anglin on DWCS (10-8 indicates fight eligible for finish) and Wood was dropped twice in his last fight. Wood has been finished in 4/5 (80%) of his career losses and Naimov has 7/9 (77.8%) wins ITD.