UFC Sao Paulo = Solid Winner! (Patreon)

Hey Folks! I want to get started on my UFC 295 research but before we close the book on UFC Sao Paulo, let's go over our results from this weekend and talk through each bet. This is a rare week where every bet I placed I would place again. Very proud of this weekend's slate.

Goal? Have a winning night by winning at least 1/3 bets.

Winning Bet: Nicolas Dalby +460

Dalby was pretty clearly the side after the fact. He had the better cardio, he was more proven, and his durability has once again shone through. Never been finished as a pro, now 5-1-1 as an underdog, 3-0 in Brazil and 5-0 against Brazilians.

Push Bet: Elizeu Zaleski +340

This one hurts because we were again on the right side but we deserved profit on this fight and we have to settle instead for our money back. Zaleski is now 10-3-1 in the UFC, he is still tough, durable, he can recover when hurt, and he can land meaningful offense on 90+% of opponents. Also proud that we beat the line here considerably with the market average closing +275.

Losing Bet: Hill/Gomes Ends SUB +1000

UFC Stats credited no official submission attempts in the bout but there was a combined 6 takedowns completed and over 9 minutes of time spent in control positions. I will always take these massive +$ angles when the arithmetic supports it & when I project fights to take place largely in the grappling phase. File this alongside with Font/Sandhagen Ends SUB +600 as a good ends by SUB bet that just wasn't meant to be!