UFC 295 Current Slate (Patreon)

1.54U Buzukja ML +260 (FanDuel)1.5U Borjas ML +200 (FanDuel)1.4U Prochazka ML +110 (FanDuel).25U Prochazka SUB +1200 (FanDuel).15U Prochazka/Pereira Ends SUB +850 (FanDuel)---Why Buzukja ML +260 ?

1) Buzujka opens +145 (BOL) & shoots up to +275 where it peaked and has been trickling back down ever since. Now the line is at +235.2) Emmers is 19-7 as a pro with 4/7 losses ITD. In the UFC, he is 2-3 with no wins ITD.3) Emmers 1-4 as a favorite for a (-75.6% ROI)4) Emmers 34 (old for division) vs. a highly motivated, younger, fresher local 26 year old.5) Buzujka looked bad last fight because he cut a ton of weight and was on short notice. Even when he was sick vs Melsik on DWCS he made a better account of himself. I expect 100% effort.6) Emmers doesn't move units. Not a social media star, not a talker, not interesting. I think Buzujka winning would be good for business.7) Emmers training environment doesn't seem to have a ton of UFC fighters in his proximity. Opposite is true for Buzujka surrounded by world class coach and team at Serra Longo.8)**PS: He looks a little saucy this camp 👀**

Why Borjas ML +200 ?

1) Both fighters = Young, Tough, Scrappy, Growing2) Borjas is 25 (physically developed) while Van is only 22 (still developing physically)3) Both men only professional loss via SUB; both prefer to strike.4) Van was +180 dog in first fight, edged ZZ Top on a SDEC. Now he is a -2xx favorite5) Borjas overperformed as a dog on DWCS, looked very good vs. Pantoja training partner.6) Already prepped for Van on DWCS over the summer.7) I would make Van a slight favorite at most . Fight could easily play out like a pick 'em8) Peruvian MMA been very hot this year. Riding the hot hand at big +$9) Borjas opened +155 (BOL) peaked at +210, now back to +190.

Why Prochazka ML +110 ?

1) Jiri fits a long term profitable angle for me; younger fighter with more MMA experience.----> Prochazka is 31yo vs. 36yo Pereira ||| Jiri 33 Pro MMA Bouts vs. Alex 10 Pro MMA Bouts2) Pereira is making a very quick turnaround after a laborious Jan Blachowicz fight.3) Prochazka young & hungry enough to return from injury / setback and continue to improve.4) I expect Jiri to have a significant wrestling/grappling edge in this fight (if implemented)5) Both men have explosive striking but Jiri appears to have the superior recoverability.6) Prochazka has been favored in all his UFC fights except Oezdemir (won via KO2)7) Since 2016 Jiri is 13-0 as a pro MMA fighter with 12/13 wins ITD (11KOs & 1 SUB)8) Since 2016 Alex is 8-1 as a pro MMA fighter with 6/8 wins ITD (6 KO wins & 1 KO Loss)9) Prochazka is marketable, English speaker, ton left to give in the sport, appeals to multi-demo.10) Jiri will fight like a dog for your money historically. Willing to die for victory.

Why Prochazka SUB +1200 & Ends SUB +850 ?

1) Very common to see striker vs striker matchup turn into a sloppy grappling match.2) Jiri submitted a world class BJJ practioner last fight in Glover Teixeira, mentor of Pereira.3) If Pereira wanted to exact revenge, he may look to submit Jiri even if he hurts him standing.4) Both fighters 100% TD Accuracy & <70% TD Defense. Both fighters attempting > .2 SUBs / 15 minutes.5) BetOnline opened Prochazka SUB +800, now down to +750. DraftKings opened +750.6) FanDuel opened +1400 & got hit to +1200.7) FanDuel better Ends SUB price than sharp books have for just Jiri via SUB.8) BetOnline -800 fight ends ITD. DK -650.9) Jiri 3-1 Career to the SUB & Pereira 0-1 Career.10) Jan B. made Pereira look real bad on the mat.