Current Gut Feelings | UFC 295 (Patreon)

Hey guys, not going to get to write my article until later tonight so I wanted to provide you guys my updated thoughts on the matchups from UFC 295.

Main Event: Pick & Bet is Jiri Prochazka ML +110 Lean ITD, sprinkled the SUB & Ends SUB at big +$'s(see navigation doc or the UFC 295 collection for write up)

Co-Main Event: Pick is Sergei Pavlovich (EVEN)NO BETS YET ON THIS FIGHT. WILL UPDATE ASAP IF/WHEN CHANGES.Lean is value on Pav at any +$ ML.Lean ITD, will consider sprinkling Rd. 2 / Rd. 3 / SUB / DEC (.125U each or something)- Sergei been 5x5 before, Aspinall cardio advantage is assumed by the market and I disagree with it fundamentally based on the footage I have seen. I think Pavlovich live by all methods.- Aspinall ITD or bust in my view. Never been to DEC before, heaviest he ever been + short notice.Dern vs. Andrade: Pick is Dern; Money Line Side = Dog or Pass (PASS for me)Lean is Dern ITD, I think they want her as a title challenger.Andrade more experienced, hard to evaluate recent performances.Would consider Ends KO +3xx | Dern KO +850/+900Frevola vs. Saint-Denis: Pick is Saint-Denis; Money Line Side = Dog or Pass (PASS for me)This is a super tricky fight for me, biases towards both guys. Gut says hardware advantage is with BSD but Frevola a solid fighter, local hero, if he don't get KO'd he could easily look like the side.Leans For Every Other Fight:

Sabatini KO/DEC (Explanation post jiu jitsu) - Not sure if I'll get to the window. Line may flip.Lean Erceg BUT fade category - +240 dog | flips to a -190 favorite next fight. (Costa short notice)Lean Godinez KO/DEC - Not bullish on this fight. Massive chalk to go DEC. Ricci boyfriend just fought and won at MSG and he reps Dana's brand. Something smells fishy to me.Lean Rebecki SUB - Love his jiu jitsu game, should try to neutralize the size of Roberts (short notice)Lean Borschev KO/DEC - Not super bullish because Slava TDD is awful but he doesn't fuck off and if he can stay conscious he is the better striker, more powerful, more experienced.Lean Gordon ITD/DEC - If survive early storm he should have process/cardio edge, late Rds. / DECLean Kang ML - Dangerous in all positions, bit old for the weight, could gas, +$ interesting tho. 138lb. catch weight is because Cast. asked for it. Red flag IMHO; but also says his mom gonna be there? Like why you invite your mom if you can't make weight lolLean Borjas ML - Van SUB is live, better jiu jitsu scrambles but Borjas a big hitter, KO power, both guys young and developing prospects with a lot to prove. Seems wide #Lean Buzujka ML - Looks sauced up, local crowd support, Emmers missed weight