Final Tracked Slate UFC 295 (Patreon)

Hey guys! I already explained most of these plays (see rest of collection / navigation doc) but I wanted to quickly run through the new plays and rationale.Why Sabatini KO +1200 & Ends KO +345 (Wynn) ?Both of these guys are elite BJJ fighters with extensive resumes on the ground including each of them possessing a 12-0 career record to the SUB Prop. Now, they're facing off against one another and the SUB is favored to occur despite neither man having been submitted in live MMA competition. Sabatini had his arm snapped by James Gonzalez (TKO) without tapping and Lopes was TKO'd via strikes in his only 2 stoppage losses. Sabatini showed off vicious GNP vs. Almeida last fight and Almeida chose to quit with that choke IMHO. I think Lopes would take the beating until a KO/TKO and I think Sabatini is chinny. At +3xx this is a no brainer and most books +320 or below and have adjusted down.If I am up on the night I will sprinkle Sabatini KO2 as well (Lopes both losses in Rd. 2, Evloev Rd. 2 was bad look as well)

Why Pavlovich?

I am picking Pavlovich outright here and I think the evidence suggests I should do so. Pavlovich is 3-0 in DEC's, he comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, he trains with world class fighters, he was preparing for the date, and he is on a long and ferocious win streak. I have seen him achieve takedowns, mount, knee on belly, and dominate his opponents. I have also seen him strike for 5 hard 5's and not get discouraged when his TD's failed. I think Pavlovich can be clipped or taken down but I think it's more likely that Pavlovich would clip Aspinall and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Pavlovich is simply the better wrestler and gets TD's of his own.

If I am up on the night, I will sprinkle Pavlovich Rd. 2 +830 & Rd. 3 +1900 insane for me given his more proven cardio over a long term sample.

---The most important message is God bless you all, good luck on all your bets, and I appreciate your support whether you tail, fade, or you're indifferent. Thanks for having my back, & let's cash these bets! Make sure you practice good bankroll management, we have been doing well these last few weeks and I like the spots this week so I am attacking the board but no matter what, we never chase. There is always next week and I already have some spots I like for the card ahead so stay tuned tomorrow/Monday for potential early bets for next week.