Faceplant L at UFC 295 (Patreon)

The first place to start, is I am sorry. I know people trust me and value my opinion, so I want you to know nothing hurts me more in this life than when I steer folks in the wrong direction. I spent so much time and hours researching these fights week in and week out, and over the long term, I am very successful doing so. But some nights, when you target the +$ angles and you look for the underdogs and the parlays busters, it works out great (see Dalby and EZ Dos Las tweek) but sometimes it leads to you looking foolish and that's me tonight. No two ways about it. My betting results tonight were Square and unacceptable. I was confident in my bet sizing because I have historically succeeded betting these fighters in the past but my results tonight disgust me and I'm anxious to put them in the rear view mirror at the fight night next week. I hope you guys used the research to succeed and bet sharper than I did tonight. I always encourage you to do your own research / listen to other analysts you respect and see if you agree with my thoughts. I am a fallible human being.--Apologies aside, let's talk about each bet 💩BRIGHT SPOT: Sabatini / Lopes Ends KO +345When you only win one, you gotta celebrate that one. Had a clear rationale for both sides to cash the bet, and that's a good prerequisite.Sabatini KO +1200 : Given the price this bet is okay I guess (Rd. 2 iterations is where I saw the KO for Pat) but I should've just shoved on Ends KO because that was the better EV bet with more outs. Lesson learned there.Borjas +200 : He landed big in Rd. 1, seemed to gas out a bit and respond poorly to pressure, I think UFC jitters got to him a bit.If I had to do again? I would bet .5-.75U @+200Buzujka +260 : The line closed +200 & Emmers cheating ass missed weight but I will never bet on Buzujka in any fight again under any circumstances. Complete bum fade.If I had to do again? PASSPavlovich ML -104 : Shouldn't have forced action in a volatile HWT fight. Played out kind of like Aspinall -150, speed and low kicks paying dividends, both guys landed hard. Sucks because my read was about Pav cardio and wrestling and then he just got bonked instead of seeing any of that :(If I had to do again? Under 1.5 or PASSProchazka ML +110 : I still would play Jiri at the price given everything I knew in the lead up. I thought Alex was fatiguing and I thought Jiri validated my read about the grappling edge being apparent but he didn't go to it consistently enough.If I had to do again? .91U Jiri ML +110 (to win 1U)Prochazka SUB +1200 : I still think this was a sensible bet. Number closed market wide ~+900 or lower and he had an easy TD and dominant grappling positions in Rd. 1Ends SUB +850 : Given the ending sequence, probably gratuitous. Should've just went with Jiri SUB and called it a day. Alex can't SUB it seems.