UFC Vegas 82 = BIG WINNER (Patreon)

Hey folks. Wanted to do a quick recap of our bets for UFC Vegas 82 to see if we can learn any lessons and evaluate the quality of our bets for improvement in the future.

Tracked Results: +2.48U @ (60% ROI)

Bet #1 = 1.4U Myktybek Orolbai -140 = Winner (+1U)

This is a bet I was very proud of. The mistake I made was not adding to this position when it went back down to -110. My read was Orolbai by SUB1/2 and that he should be a -2xx favorite. I think that was borne out by the fight. Took the big strikes no problem, 10 levels above on the mat.

Bet #2 = 1.25U Chad Anheliger +170 = Loser (-1.25U)

Let my biases for Chad distract me from the massive size and age advantages for Johnson. Also thought Johnson exceeded my expectations (I will give him more credit moving forward) but he is still very beatable against good grapplers. Chad size prevented him from taking advantage of his technical wrestling advantage and without TD's he was always in an uphill battle. Bad bet.

Bet #3 = .6U Ribas/Pinheiro FDGTD +125 = Winner (+.75U)

These two women were both extremely violent all night and both had chances to put the fight away. Loved this bet as it kept me from picking a side in a super volatile fight and it allowed me to cash on that inherent volatility at plus money. This should've been a full 1U play but good bet.

Bet #4 = .5U Chase Hooper SUB +475 = Winner (+2.4U)

Hooper was simply levels above on the mat here. Leavitt had strength and some ability to wrestle but his lack of speed and dynamism in the scrambles was always going to make this a tough fight for him. Should've been more invested in ITD +190 & SUB +475 but read was perfect. Good bet.

Bet #5 = .2U Jeka/Alexander Ends SUB +550 = Loser (-.2U)

Thought this was a good hedge position on Jeka ML but didn't get to track Jeka ML which was regrettable. Did pick him in the article by KO/TKO but rationale was that his ground game so unknown at FWT that ends SUB was a stackable hedge (either could theoretically cash). Both guys have lost by SUB and Jeka has a bunch of SUB wins so I was comfortable with this shot, would bet again.

Bet #6 = Duncan/Tiuliulin Ends SUB +525 = Loser (-.2U)

Duncan could've won this fight however he wanted. Should've stacked round props as well (Rd. 2 & 3) as a stackable hedge for the SUB but either way, bet I would make again. Tiuliulin useless IMHO

BONUS:

IF YA'LL FOLLOWED ALONG IN THE CHAT ALL NIGHT WE HIT A TON OF INSANE LIVE ADDS (ARTICLE HAD THE PICKS TOO)

Talbott SUB +1400 / Ends SUB +700

Talbott Rd. 3 +600

Orolbai SUB +550 / Ends SUB +410

Hooper ITD +190

AND MORE!!! Let's keep the ball rolling. Love you all. Thanks for your support. Happy Thanksgiving!