UFC Vegas 83 Current Slate (Patreon)

Why Su/Elliott Ends SUB & Sumudaerji SUB? Context:1. Tim Elliott is on short notice.2. Fight is taking place at 135lb.3. Elliott 6 career losses by SUB.4. Paths = Club/SUB, Pace Edge? Variance?5. Su attempts .6 SUB attempts / 15 minutes6. Elliott likely to force grappling.7. 125lb. Fights End by SUB 23.4% (highest divisional rate in UFC men/women's)8. 3Rd. 135lb. Fights End by SUB 17.3%-Combined Record to SUB: 7-12Combined % of Fights End SUB: 18/54 (33.3%)Elliott Losses: 6/13 Losses via SUB (46.1%)UFC Losses: 5/11 Losses via SUB (45.5%)-Elliott SUB best Available is +285. Sacrificing 40 cents covers the possibility of a Su SUB which I think is worthwhile given the putrid record of Elliott to the SUB as a pro and in the UFC in particular.-Why Song Yadong via SUB?Song is massively favored to win this fight, he is favored to win ITD, and the fight is chalked not to go the distance. Gutierrez has a 1-1 career record to the SUB & an ugly draw with flyweight Cody Durden in which he was grappled to the tune of a 10-8 first round. Song Yadong has been developing his wrestling and grappling with Team Alpha Male and he already has one submission win in the UFC under his belt. I lean Song ITD and the KO is live but the SUB is maximum value IMHO.-Ends by SUB for Song/Gutierrez = Stackable Hedge Bet

Since 2018 135lb. Fights End SUB rate: 16.4%Since 2015 135lb. Fights End SUB rate: 18%Ends SUB Price for this fight: +950 (9.5%)----.2 SUB attempts / 15 Mins (Song Yadong).1 SUB attempts / 15 Mins (Chris Gutierrez)-Why Taira via KO/TKO?

1. Taira has recorded 3 W's via KO/TKO2. Taira recorded a knock down in UFC3. Knocked down several opponents that he submitted on the Japanese regional scenebefore latching on to a choke for the club/sub finish.4. Taira has precise striking, large hands, & powerful, snappy 1-2's that can KO or stun an opponent. He also showed positional domination and nearly TKO'd Candelario from the back mount, a position he should be able to achieve given his advantages in size and athleticism relative to his opponent.-Why Muniz KO?Theoretical Edge: Rare to see a 16-1 KO prop in the middleweight division. If this was a massive dog, that would be one thing.-+135 implied win probability = (42.6%)+325 implied win probability = (23.5%)+1050 implied win probability = (8.7%)-Middleweight Ends via KO Rate = 40% or +150Middleweight Ends via SUB Rate = 19% or +426Middleweight FDGTD Prop = 59% or -143-Muniz KO = +1600 (5.9%)Muniz/Park Ends KO = +175 (36.4%)FDGTD = -200 (66.7%)-Park has been TKO'd standing by Robocop, he was getting rocked by the power of Eryk Anders, and he was ready to quit against Fluffy Hernandez. Park has a suspect chin, he is very hittable, and he can get TKO'd positionally. Muniz has never been higher than 12-1 to win by KO in his UFC career. I faded Park last time with Duraev at a similar money line price and I had shares of Duraev KO at 10-1. Duraev is more similar in size to Park whereas Muniz will be massive and have a substantial height/reach advantage. Muniz has 4 wins by KO and Park has been stung on the feet on multiple occasions. Middleweight invites some inherent volatility.-Why Muniz KO1?-Muniz Rd. 1:+506 (16.5%) market avg. Per Best Fight Odds+550 (15.4%) best available odds+385 (20.6%) BetOnline (sharp offshore book)-Muniz KO1 +3400 (2.9%) = My OddsMuniz KO1 +3000 (3.2%) = BetOnline