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UFCVegas84 Recap & Debrief (Patreon)

Published:
2024-01-14 21:48:58
Edited:
2024-01-14 21:49:53
Imported:
2026-10
Tags:

Content

Hey folks! Unfortunately, it was a losing night at UFC Vegas 84. Let's talk about what went wrong, what went right, and what lessons we can learn.

The Good?

Picks were on point. 10/11 correct winners to start the year (Parsons & Bautista underdogs).

Limited the damage on the card.

3/4 Fights I Bet to End via SUB ended via KO (still ended ITD, fits the read)

The Bad?

We lost ~2U on the reverse sweep. I was hoping for one SUB prop to hit to pay for our night of betting, with the upside that any two SUBs hitting could be a massive score. Instead, we ended up betting 4 SUB props on a night when one SUB took place. If I had it to do over?.3U Bunes/Van Ends SUB +290.2U Van via SUB +750-.3U Main Event Ends SUB +750.3U Nolan/Motta Ends SUB +800 (No Nolan SUB prop).2U Arlovski/WCA Ends SUB +1100 (No WCA SUB prop)This would've given us similar upside and limited our upfront downside.

Also quite pissed at myself for passing on Bautista ML. I picked him outright and he was over +150, no excuse to not take that bet.

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Sorry to let you folks down on the first event of the year. Excited to get back to work researching UFC 297! First look is coming tonight. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please let me know

Files

Comments

Timothy Crowley

your knowledge of mma is second to none, but its getting frustrating to see you bragging on twitter about the work the "lab" has been putting in and cashing on NFL plays all while us who are paying every month get the picks of Waldo Cortes by submission after a 3 week layoff.. As a gambler I am trying to get some decent closing line value, and when were getting the "previous performance odds range" and the "live write up" a couple hours before the event , to me it doesn't really do us no good because majority of our bets are already in. Just kind of feel patreon has been being put on the back burner a little bit the last couple events. All love, just venting a concern

Liam Picks Fights

Hey Tim. Really disappointed to hear you feel that way. The Lab is designed to cover all sports. This Patreon was designed for fight fans and at a lower price point. If you want me to include my information from other sports, I'm happy to do so, but I didn't want to create clutter or pretend I am as sharp in those markets as I am in MMA. I acknowledge it was a poor showing from me this weekend but the long term results and the analysis speaks for itself. I'll get information out earlier this week for the PPV with quality fights but that card wasn't my most most confident and I said it from the outset. I give my best every week and I bet everything I share with yall. I didn't even bet those NFL reads I sent in the Lab (hence no ticket on the tweet) but my goal is always to send the best information possible to anyone I communicate with. It guts me when I fall short of that goal