All Current Tracked Bets (Patreon)

Why 1U Natalia Silva ITD @ +250 (BetRivers)?1) Silva is ~10 years younger, statistically significant age gap.2) Silva is a prolific finisher (13 out of 16 or 81.2% of Wins occurred ITD)3) Araujo is a notorious gasser and she could get paced/finished late.4) Araujo has lost via KO1 before against Sarah Frota @115lb. (4/15/2017), rocked vs. Ribas.5) Araujo is due for age-based regression; 9 fight GTD streak due for regression.6) BOL opened +300, now down to +240, I anticipate it closes +200 or lower.

---Why .5U Molly McCann SUB @ +900 (BetRivers)?

1) Rematch of a fight in which McCann had 5 TDs, 1 SUB attempt & 3 Minutes & 39 Seconds of time spent in controlling positions.2) McCann no career wins by SUB, but attempt .5 SUBs per 15 minutes in the cage.3) McCann been working with Paddy the Baddy, J-Flo Judo, and other skilled practitioners to improve her skills.4) McCann just won a grappling match via armbar (Rd. 1) as a confidence booster.5) Belbita has been submitted 4 times including three times via armbar.6) Belbita has been contemplating retirement and she stinks at fighting overall.7) BOL opened Molly SUB +800, down to +650.---

Why 2.5U Ilia Topuria ML @ +154/+125 (FanDuel & Caesars)?

Volk is 35 years old (age regression)

Volk was KO'd Brutally on 10/21/2023

Volk is at virtual size parity (no clear edge)

Topuria is ~9 years younger (26 vs. 35)

Topuria 1-0 as a dog for a 164% ROI

Topuria confident, marketable, well-rounded.

UFC preference is Topuria IMHO*Multi-Demographic, Multi-Lingual Speaker*Volk is a fan favorite, so he will take action in the betting market. That being said, I expect respected money to hit the Topuria side and I would not be surprised if this fight close +120 or below on Topuria. There is a non-zero chance this line flips before fight time given the age & recent form of the challenger.Grappling: Edge Topuria (Better SUBs)Wrestling: Edge Topuria (Better TD offense)Striking Technique: Edge Volk (Better Leg Kicks)Punching Power: Edge TopuriaHand Speed: Edge TopuriaDurability: Edge TopuriaHunger/Motivation: Edge TopuriaCardio: Pure Speculation (Volk slight edge)Marketability: Edge Topuria---Why 1.3U Benoit Saint-Denis ML @-130 (DraftKings)?

1) Saint-Denis is undefeated in the lightweight division (5-0 UFC, all in UFC)2) Saint-Denis is 4-0 as a favorite for a 49.9% ROI (5-1 UFC; 55.7% ROI)3) Saint-Denis expected to have all the anthropomorphic advantages:Age: BSD 28 vs. 35. | Height: BSD 5'11 vs. 5'9 | Reach: BSD 73" vs. 71"4) Poirier is coming off a devastating KO2 loss vs. Gaethje.5) Poirier no wins over a fighter in their twenties since Holloway win in 2019.6) Porier way more fight miles (28 UFC fights vs. 6 for BSD) = durability edge.7) Poirier hips are damaged, makes him susceptible to being grappled.8) Macron (French President) supporting BSD & holding up his T-Shirt.--France = Wealthy, Important European foothold for UFC---