UFC 299 Current Slate (Patreon)

Hey folks! I just added a new bet! Let's discuss why

Why 2.1U Jailton Almeida (Junior) ML @ -105 (Wynn Bet)?

1) I believe that Jailton Almeida is live to win this fight via every method of victory, meaning I could see a reasonable path to a SUB, a KO, or a UDEC victory.2) I believe that Almeida is a superior grappler (better submissions, better sweeps, better control mechanics, better guard passing, and a more layered scrambler.)3) I believe that the evidence in record shows Almeida to be a more durable fighter than Blaydes. Almeida has one career loss via KO/TKO whereas Blaydes has 4 losses via KO/TKO. Almeida has never absorbed a UFC knockdown (despite fighting common opponent Derrick Lewis for 25 minutes) whereas Blaydes has absorbed 4 UFC knockdowns including in a fight he won against Mark Hunt.4) Blaydes takes a punch worse than Almeida IMHO. What is my evidence? Blaydes was dropped by 7 significant strikes from Lewis (Almeida absorbed 20, never rocked or wobbled.) Blaydes was also dropped by Hunt on 1/14 significant strikes, he was dropped and finished by Pavlovich within 36 significant strikes landing, and he was finished within 13 strikes absorbed from Francis Ngannou.5) I believe Almeida is more consistent and reliable to shoot takedowns, scramble to get top position, and more capable of using those positions when established.6) Blaydes has said he wants to keep this fight upright and KO Almeida. Assuming that Blaydes is a better and more dangerous striker is somewhat speculative as Blaydes has recorded just 2 knockdowns in his lengthy UFC tenure and those came against Alexei Olenik and Chris Daukaus, two lower-level fighters that are severely undersized and lack the physicality to compete with average heavyweights.7) I believe the UFC views Jailton Almeida as a star in the making, whereas I feel they view Curtis Blaydes as enhancement talent within the division (a top guy that serves as a gate keeper and is meant to make other fighters look good).8) Blaydes grappling footage at B-Team makes him look slow and awkward in many grappling transitions. His hands are constantly on the mat which will leave posts for Almeida to control as well as opportunities to threaten chokes if he gets the back.9) Almeida had opportunities to quit vs. Derrick Lewis who showed up in career best shape and highly motivated but he showed the will and the cardio to push through and continuously wrestle, securing takedowns well into the 5th frame.

Why 1.3U Benoit Saint-Denis ML @ -130 (DraftKings)?

1) Saint-Denis is undefeated in the lightweight division (5-0 UFC, all in UFC)2) Saint-Denis is 4-0 as a favorite for a 49.9% ROI (5-1 UFC; 55.7% ROI)3) Saint-Denis expected to have all the anthropomorphic advantages:Age: BSD 28 vs. 35. | Height: BSD 5'11 vs. 5'9 | Reach: BSD 73" vs. 71"4) Poirier is coming off a devastating KO2 loss vs. Gaethje.5) Poirier no wins over a fighter in their twenties since Holloway win in 2019.6) Porier way more fight miles (28 UFC fights vs. 6 for BSD) = durability edge.7) Poirier hips are damaged, makes him susceptible to being grappled.8) Macron (French President) supporting BSD & holding up his T-Shirt.--France = Wealthy, Important European foothold for UFC---