Quick Picks: UFC 300 (Patreon)

Pereira vs Hill

Alex Pereira is undoubtedly the superior technical striker and by a good margin. However, the durability edge lies with Hill — at least, in terms of absorbing strikes. Hill is coming off a ruptured achilles, which is about as devastating an injury as can be for an athlete. He will not be the same fighter as before. Perhaps he’s close enough to remain elite at 205, but he will be regressed somewhat. Between that and the technique advantage for Pereira, I’ll go with the Brazilian by stoppage from strikes.

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Weili vs Xiaonon

I certainly agree with Zhang Weili being a solid favorite here, but 6-1 may be stretching it. I do not see one major advantage for her on paper, but I do see many small ones that add up to a large overall edge. Weili is stronger, the better athlete, more well-rounded and proven against tougher foes. This should lead to a Weili victory but there may be competitive moments. I also find Zhang’s losses to Rose Namajunas concerning. Her chin was poor in one while her overall game cost her the rematch.

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Gaethje vs Holloway

Both are known for their volume, often engaging in drawn out wars of attrition. Holloway has shown to be the more technical boxer, with better cardio, a higher pace and superior durability. That said, he’s the naturally smaller fighter moving up from 145 to 155 here. His last bout at this weight was against Dustin Poirier, where Max was rocked multiple times and upset as a 2-1 favorite. I expect this time at lightweight will go differently for Holloway. He should widen the gap down the the stretch en route to a decision, with a shot at a TKO.

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Tsarukyan vs Oliveira

This fight comes down to Tsarukyan’s smooth, measured control versus Oliveira’s sudden fight ending ability. Standing, Oliveira has the rangier, more powerful strikes. He also has a clear edge in submission ability. However, Charles has shown issues in the past with opponents who could gain stifling top position on him. Arman’s best path to victory involves a heavy wrestling oriented game plan with cautious top position grappling. He likely can do that, so he’ll be my pick, but an upset would not shock me. Arman has been rocked before and he’s never faced a submission threat like Oliveira.

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Nickal vs Brundage

Bo Nickal is the biggest favorite in UFC history. This fight was made with one purpose and one purpose only: get Bo an easy win in the PPV opener to build his starpower. That will very likely happen. An upset here would be hilarious, but Nickal by sub in the first is my pick.