Quick Picks: UFC Vegas 78 (Patreon)

My predictions for the entire main card, along with brief analysis per fight. My in-depth analysis and breakdowns can be found in the betting preview for the event.-

Luque vs dos Anjos

If it wasn’t for the year long layoff after a brain bleed, I’d consider betting Luque here as the slight underdog. But that is too big of a red flag to ignore, as that is a career ending type of issue. That said, if he’s not a further regressed version of himself, he’s the superior striker with better combinations, greater shot selection and much more power. He’s also naturally bigger and probably has the takedown defense to keep it standing. The concerns are if that brain injury affects his chin, reflexes and general form. Perhaps this could have a live betting opportunity on either side, depending how Luque looks. But pre-fight I can’t play a side despite picking the +105 underdog in Lugue to win.

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Dawodu vs Swanson

In the twilight of his career, Swanson still is a bit dangerous with his veteran craft, but he’s clearly significantly past his prime. Dawodu is younger, fresher and more athletic with a nice striking game on the offensive side. Swanson likely needs to land a kill shot or get takedowns, both of which seem unlikely here. I will say the power shot seems a tad more likely if the upset occurs, as Dawodu has shown shaky defense in the past. Swanson’s durability has greatly declined as he approaches 40 years old, so I’d be more concerned about him getting hurt. Dawodu should land with leg kicks, body shots and power strikes to the head, and he might be able to get a rare UFC finish. 

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Rountree vs Daukaus

I‘m not sure what Daukaus is good at. He’s basically a brawler who shoots the occasional takedown but lacks athleticism, defense and durability. He’s dropping to 205 from heavyweight but this is a more talented division now. Rountree is the better technical striker by a good margin, though he also lacks durability. I don’t like how he is hot or cold in his fights — sometimes showing up in form and other times looking completely disinterested. If he’s on, he should crush Daukaus by KO without too much trouble. But if he has one of his off nights, gets pressured and refuses to throw, it wouldn’t be surprising in the least. Still, I have to favor him to get the stoppage.

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Lucindo vs Viana

Viana has issues dictating the location of her bouts, often doing poorly on both sides of the wrestling. She’s touted for her BJJ black belt but has never shown high level grappling in the UFC. She likes to throw up arm bars from guard but doesn’t offer to much else. On the feet, she’s limited with low volume. Lucindo is sloppy on the feet herself but throws more consistent volume and should be able to outpoint Viana to decision in a sloppy, trademark “women’s MMA” type of bout.

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Nchukwi vs Dobson

While he’s glacially slow with a poor chin on the feet, if Nchukwi takes the smart route here and grapples he can probably get takedowns and wear out his opponent. Dobson has shown both cardio and wrestling issues in the past, but to his credit he does have the power to put out Nchukwi standing. That’s not to say Dobson is home free on the feet, as Nchukwi can tag him there as well. But it makes sense to exploit an opponent’s weakest area and if Nchukwi does that he should get his hand raised here via time on the mat. That said, both of these two are generally absolute fades at the betting window.

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Fremd vs Pickett

Well, Fremd at almost 4-1 is a terrifying price but Pickett has looked extremely limited so far in the UFC, including started 0-2 on DWCS. Fremd has shown fairly solid cardio and should have the wrestling advantage. If Pickett can keep it standing or in the clinch, potentially he could get some volume going. But more likely is he gets smothered and controlled for three rounds en route to a decision loss, without an outside shot at suffering a stoppage on the mat.