Quick Picks: UFC Sao Paulo (Patreon)

Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis

After getting caught speeding earlier in the week, Lewis avoids jail time and instead gets Jailton. Lewis of course has the massive power standing but aside from that he’s quite limited, especially in terms of takedowns defense. Jailton is basic with his setups but he should be able to throw a single strike to disguise his shot while ducking under for a double leg. He must be careful with his entries, as Curtis Blaydes telegraphed his takedown attempts against Lewis before running face first into a monstrous KO uppercut. Lewis is stepping in on short notice for Blaydes, which is another red flag here for the former title contender. If he gets on top and is still fresh, Jailton should be able to lock up the submission fairly easily.

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Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby

Bonfim has the more potent offense and superior finishing skills. Dalby‘s best shot is to outwork his way to a decision in enemy territory.  The more likely result is him getting caught along the way, likely with a choke. Both Bonfim brothers are on this main card and, while I do like their offense in the matchups this week, their defensive issues will once again plague them down the line.

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Rodrigo Nascimento vs Don’Tale Mayes

Nascimento already beat Mayes by sub a few years ago and now they run it back for no apparent reason. Not much has changed and I still don’t think highly of Mayes, but that doesn’t mean he’s dead in the water. Rodrigo has not been impressive himself and has shown repeated liabilities. This is two low level, sloppy fighters and I slightly favor Nascimento to get the job done again.

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Caio Borralho vs Abus Magomedov

Two fighters with awful gas tanks compete to see who tires out and gets finished first. Abus throws absolute heaters in round one but lacks strong technique. He consistently gasses out horribly in round two as a result. In contrast, Caio is grappler first and foremost but he also has cardio issues. He does not tire quite sad bad as Abus and is much more proven, so I agree with him being favored here. That said, laying 3-1 seems a bit high for a matchup between two flawed gassers.

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Armen Petrosyan vs Rodolfo Viera

Viera has solid top game grappling but limited striking and wrestling. He will absolutely spam poorly setup takedowns until the final bell without adjusting strategy or approach. If Rodolgo does manage to get on top, he’s a slick guard passer with solid subs but I’m just not sold on his takedown ability at the UFC level. He also tires late in round two. Petrsoyan tires a bit too but not as badly, plus performs at a higher pace. His grappling game is certainly susceptible here, but he has a clear edge standing. This is a tough one to call but when in doubt, I tend to side with cardio. Petrosyan by decision is the pick.

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Ismael Bonfim vs Vinc Pichel

The other Bonfim brother kicks off the main card against the always game but technically limited Vinc Pichel. At almost 41 years old, Vinc is ancient for the division and showing regression. He’s tough and scrappy but not dangerous in any one area. Bonfim meanwhile has potent offense and aggressive to apply it. This seems like a classic case of the changing of the guard, out with the old and in with the new.