Quick Picks: UFC Vegas 82 (Patreon)

Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig

Craig showed overall improvements last fight but he still needed to rely on a finish after clearly losing early. Allen is more well-rounded and fundamentally sound but is defensively vulnerable both standing and on the mat. On paper, Allen should win much more often than not. However, this style matchup absolutely leaves the door open for Craig to score one of his trademark come-from-behind finishes, given the defensive liabilities of Allen.

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Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews

Jake came to the UFC nine years ago as a touted prospect but has barely improved since. His defense is shaky and his chin is poor, plus his cardio is inconsistent. Morales should be able to keep this standing and outstrike Matthews, hurting him along the way to a decision or stoppage.

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Chase Hooper vs Jordan Leavitt

Leavitt is open about being distracted by the imminent birth of his child, even stating he’ll back out of the fight if his wife goes into labor this week. That’s a clear red flag to go along with some concerning skill deficiencies. His cardio and overall defense are both poor. Hooper is not the prospect some want him to be but he is a solid grappler. On the feet, he’s not a great striker but throws good volume with his super rangy frame. To be frank, I’m not a believer in either of these prospects but I favor Hooper who I think has a higher ceiling.

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Payton Talbott vs Nick Aguirre

Entering as a massive 8-1 favorite, Talbott has high expectations from fans. I’m not so sure about him but he is in a favorable matchup here. Aguirre will look to spam takedowns in an effort to utilize his BJJ but he likely gets out struck and possibly even choked if he leaves his neck out there while shooting.

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Amanda Ribas vs Luana Pinheiro

Ribas has some of the best wrestling offense and defense in WMMA but unfortunately has one of the worst chins. Luana doesn’t pack a particularly potent punch but anyone can hurt Ribas it seems. That said, Ribas should be able to use her wrestling to get this fight on the mat repeatedly and tire out Luana en route to a decision.

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Myktybek Orolbai vs Uros Medic

Medic is a bit of a wild man, with shaky defense and cardio. He’s prefers to strike but hasn’t faced strong grapplers. Oralbai should be able to test that and probably will be successful. Both are fairly unproven, especially the newcomer Orolbai, but I still favor him slightly by decision or late sub.