Quick Picks: UFC 296 (Patreon)

Edwards vs Covington

While Edwards has been on an extended win streak, he’s faced almost no wrestlers. The recent Usman matches were after Kamaru’s knees were long gone and it showed. Colby has a far more aggressive clinch attack, consistent pressure game and variety of takedown attempts. At range, Edwards is clearly more technical but Covington has solid volume in return. We also know how judges tend to favor that pressure style. Overall, I expect a grueling, ugly fight that Colby wins by decision.

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Pantoja vs Royval

These two fought prior with Pantoja winning by submission. Not too much has changed since and I expect a fun, competitive bout. Pantoja should have more success early on with his superior strength and grappling, but Royval’s energy and pace will likely lead to him having moments down the stretch. Ultimately we likely see the fight play out in all areas en route to a competitive decision for Pantoja, though I am concerned about his cardio in the championship rounds.

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Rakhmonov vs Thompson

In his prime, Thompson was an incredibly tricky karate striker with excellent range manipulation. As he’s aged, his reflexes have noticble dimished as has his chin. As a result, he’s not nearly as efficient standing. Rakhmonov meanwhile is much less technical but younger and more durable. He also has the far superior ground game, even though his wrestling is limited. A few years ago, we may have seen a different result, but in this day and age, Thompson likely gets finished.

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Pimblett vs Ferguson

This an abortion of a matchup that should have never been made. Ferguson is beyond washed and doesn’t have much to offer these days. His trademark resilience is long gone and now he’s been getting rocked and dropped all over the place. Pimblett is not particularly technical but he’s much fresher and still in his prime. Like with the previous fight, the timing of this fight is everything. Prime Tony would finish Paddy but in 2023 we likely see the reverse.

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Garry vs Luque

This fight is canceled. I broke it down in the podcast before it was scrapped.