Quick Picks: UFC Vegas 84 (Patreon)

Kape vs Nocolau was canceled after weigh-ins, so I took extra time overnight to research its main card replacement. That’s Cortes-Acosta vs Arlovski, which I had previous only researched relatively lightly given its lack of betting potential. That breakdown is included below.

Also on that note, this week’s Fight Film was going to be on Manel Kape as we had multiple bets on his fight. I was midway through making that episode when it got canceled, so I’ll save finishing that for next time Kape is booked. To make up for the missed ep, I’ll do an extra Fight Film for next week’s PPV event.

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Ankalaev vs Walker 2

It’s clear that Ankalaev is the better fighter on paper. However, he has a serious issue with fighting down to his level of competition. His most dominant potential path here would be to pursue the takedown, which he seemed keen on before their last meeting ended in a first round No Contest. I expect him to do so again here and grapple his way to victory, with a mix of stiff punches and kicks along the way.

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Miller vs Benitez

Jim Miller has looked phenomenal as he’s turned into a vicious power punches at the end of his career… or has he? I believe his recent finishes can be attributed to his basement level of competition. Benitez isn’t elite by any stretch, but he is objectively better than some of Miller’s recent victories. I still favor Miller ever so slightly, but you’d think the line was -500 for him the way people are blindly assuming this is a setup to get him an easy win before his retirement fight at UFC 300.

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Simon vs Bautista

Simon should be the superior wrestler who attempts more takedowns as well. Both throw with some power but neither have sturdy chins. If it’s standing, it’s tough to call as it will likely see back-and-forth action. Simon’s relentless takedown attempts should give him the upper hand overall, however.

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Hawes vs Ferreira

We know the deal with Hawes at this point: uber talented wrestler and elite athlete with absolutely zero durability or resilience. An unfortunate turn of events for an otherwise promising career. The dynamic here is like many of his bouts, where he will likely get knocked out in brutal fashion unless he can initiate frequent grappling changes. I barely favor him to get the takedowns and clinches going, so he’ll be my pick, but he’s not someone I look to trust with my money.

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Cortes-Acosta vs Arlovski

There were far better options to move to the main card than a sloppy heavyweight contest with a 8-1 favorite. Yes, I am a tad grumpy about wasting my entire Friday night until the early morning hours just now researching this trash heap of a fight. Arlovski in his prime was one of my favorites to watch but that was around 2006. Since then, he’s slowly lost all of his best attributes such as blistering speed and one punch KO power. Now, he’s a sluggish point fighter who can’t hurt anyone and strikes like he’s underwater. He’s found a way to make it work against the absolute bottom of the division but any step up turns out horribly for him. This will likely be the case yet again. I do not think highly of Cortes-Acosta but he is much fresher than Arlovski and looks far more lively and dynamic in the cage. Not only can he beat Andrei in his own realm in the feet, but he is the better grappler as well. Unless Waldo lays an absolute egg and finds a way to lose, this should be one way traffic. That said, I’m never laying 8-1 on a low level heavyweight.