Quick Picks: UFC 297 (Patreon)

Strickland vs Du Plessis

I’m the last guy to play armchair psychologist but Strickland seems completely out of sorts during fight week. He and his coaches have fully admitted he has an issue following game plans and fights based on emotion. This seems like a prime opportunity for that issue to arise again. His path to victory even at his best is surviving an early onslaught and taking over down the stretch when Du Plessis tires. If he’s not fighting efficiently he may not even last until Dricus tires. It’s an early versus late dynamic and I slightly favor Du Plessis to pour it in early and win gold.

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Bueno Silva vs Pennington

I know I’m critical of WMMA sometimes but even Maria Bueno Silva herself has admitted this is a boring fight on paper that fans are not loookjng forward to. Pennington has okay boxing with solid durability for female divisions but lacks variety or power. Her best path here is volume boxing her way to a 25 minute decision. Bueno Silva is more dynamic and a better finisher, but has the worse cardio. I favor Bueno Silva slightly to impress the judges a bit more here but I greatly worry about her cardio down the stretch.

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Malott vs Magny

Sign… Magny is one of my most inaccurate fighters for me to pick historically. This man has made a career out of getting destroyed by better fighters before somehow pulling out the win. That’s what he’ll need to do yet again here, as Mallot is clearly the more offensively skilled and dynamic fighter with more upside. That said, while Malott has some quick finishes, he showed some issues late in other fights. If he doesn’t stomp out Magny early, he could show that again late. Still, Magny likely lacks potent enough offense here and should get outworked by the crowd favorite.

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Curtis vs Bariault

I understand Curtis being favored and I will be picking him here, but I have two main concerns. First, he’s smaller, including five inches shorter. Second, he’s a slow starter and often times gives away an early round or two even versus objectively worse opposition. He lost a close decision last time to Gastelum after losing the first two rounds, including giving away the first. Here, I expect Curtis to struggle with the volume early before eventually starting to find a home for his punches. Eventually, Curtis should score a TKO or decision after some early growing pains.

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Evloev vs Allen

This is effectively a striker versus grappler matchup and the game plan for Evloev will be simple: spam the takedown. Allen will likely get stuck in the clinch at times and probably even taken down. His key will be landing enough volume to outweigh the control time. These types of matchups often come down to the biases of the judges at cageside, as some favor control much more than others. Personally, I slightly favor Evloev to get enough clinches and control along with some small bursts of offense to just edge it out.