Quick Picks: UFC 298 (Patreon)

Volkanovski vs Topuria

I was high on Volkanovski before he even made his UFC debut and have cashed several bets on him over the years. But all good things must come to an end and in MMA the downfalls are usually quite swift. There are many outside the cage concerns with Alexander here, plus he’s going against one of the toughest stylistic matchups of his career. Topuria is explosive and extremely powerful with great offensive boxing. Ilia’s vulnerabilities are striking defense and cardio, which the featherweight champion can absolutely test, but I’m going with the challenger here. Topuria by KO.

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Whittaker vs Costa

In a battle to see who has less left in the tank, former top middles weights clash. Whittaker looked absolutely washed last fight against Du Plessis, but he claims he was badly affected by an injury. Meanwhile, Costa has had trouble even making it to the cage, with several canceled fights and health issues. Stylistically, the matchup favors Whittaker’s striking, speed and footwork. I’ll go with the former champion by KO.

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Garry vs Neal

This is a tough one. Neal is a great technical striker but highly inconsistent and fades down the stretch. Garry meanwhile is much more green but fights in a more risk averse manner with a style that judges like. If Neal can make this a firefight or get his sharp counters going, he’s very live. My issue is this has been the case in all of his losses — they were winnable fights that he let slip away. Garry by decision.

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Dvalishvili vs Cejudo

Speaking of tricky matchups, two very similar yet still quite different fighters face off in a battle of wrestlers. Merab sets a brutal pace and outright spams takedown attempts no matter how unsuccessful they are. Cejudo has a more well rounded style with a measured wrestling approach and karate-style striking attack. I expect this to be mostly a stalemate in the wrestling with Merab being the takedown aggressor. Cejudo is the cleaner striker but we’ll likely see an ugly, scrappy fight spent heavily in close quarters, especially the clinch. The judges will likely favor the aggressor, Merab. The same thing occurred when his teammate, Aljamain Sterling, fought Cejudo to a close decision recently where the judges awarded Sterling’s grappling aggression. l favor Merab but this should be a close decision either way.

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Hernandez vs Kopylov

Opposites face off in the main card opener, grappler versus striker. “Fluffy” Hernandez is a swarming grappler who excels in scrambles. He looks to force his opponents to make a mistake in transition but is limited standing. Kopylov is a stinging striker who likes to pressure his prey before metling them with power shots. Unfortunately his grappling is questionable, though improving. This one clearly comes down to the location, as each has a sizable edge in their realm. I’ll slightly favor Hernandez’ grappling but there’s no way I’m laying 2-1 on him.