Quick Picks: UFC Mexico (Patreon)

Moreno vs Royval

A short notice five rounder at elevation doesn’t bode well for Royval, especially against a cardio and pace machine like Moreno. Both are well rounded and consistently end up in scrambles and poor positions, but Royval is a bit more defensively vulnerable all around. This seems like Moreno’s fight to lose. I’ll take the former champion by submission at some point on a winded Royval.

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Rodriguez vs Ortega

Both are well-rounded, with Yair leaning into his striking while Ortega is grappling focused. We’ll likely see the fight take place in all areas of the game, with both having their moments. Down the stretch, Yair’s pace and striking should win over the judges in front of his home crowd. However, the more likely finisher here is Brian Ortega and Yair will give him ample opportunities to catch something. That makes it a volatile matchup to predict. I give the slight edge to the -170 favorite Rodriguez but the betting line makes it a dog or pass situation.

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Zellhuber vs Prado

While he’s the bigger fighter with an 8” reach advantage, Zellhuber has the trademark tall man defense which makes him hittable in the pocket. Prado will look to pressure and get him moving back in a straight line or stuck against the fence. Overall, Zellhuber should find his range, land at a higher clip and get his hand raised — but don’t be surprised if he gets stung a couple times along the way.

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Rosas Jr vs Turcios

I’ve never been a believer in Rosas Jr as any kind of super prospect, but he’s the better athlete and should be able to grapple his way to victory here. Turcios won’t go away quietly and if he can take the fight into round three there’s rally potential for him on a gassed foe. But the pick is still Rosas Jr by sub after seeing how Turcios has struggled on the mat in the past.

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Jauregei vs Hughes

Off a KO loss a 4-1 favorite to ruin her undefeated record, Jauregei returns in another good matchup for her on paper. Hughes has poor striking defense and sloppy skills but solid cardio. Jauregei is cleaner and has more long term potential but her striking defense is also a concern, as is her chin and grappling defense. That said, Hughes is unlikely to be able to capitalize on those. Jauregei should win by stoppage.

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Torres vs Duncan

Duncan hasn’t shown the best fight IQ in the past and is inconsistent in the cage, but he has shown solid heart. He’ll likely need that here as he’s up against a more skilled opponent. Torres is more dangerous and has the potential to hurt Duncan standing or sub him on the mat. We could see a bit of a wild fight here but eventually Torres should end it inside the distance.