Quick Picks: UFC 299 (Patreon)

O’Malley vs Vera

Vera won by first round KO last time these two met, but there was a leg injury to O’Malley along the way. Still, the chin and overall grappling from O’Malley was concerning. You never almost never see fighters finished from full guard, leg injury or not. Sean is the rangier striker and a bit more explosive, but he’s a poor point fighter and has a disjointed overall game. Sterling handed the counter to him on a silver platter but I don’t expect Chito to make it that easy for him. That said, Vera is a terribly slow starter, often times doing absolutely nothing for at least one or two rounds before finally turning into a monster by round three. This is a tough fight to call on paper and I can’t understand why O’Malley is a 3-1 fav outside of pure hype. The best way to play it is probably live betting Vera after his slow start at an even better price than pre-fight. In terms of a prediction, I’m conflicted, this is a toss up. I’ll going with Vera.

Poirier vs St-Denis

I love watching Dustin Poirier fight, have talked to him and he even used to be a member of my betting service back in the day. But I don’t ever let personal bias cloud my judgement. A 35 year old lightweight coming off a KO loss after already showing clear regression in previous fights — that is who Poirier is in 2024. Now he’s facing a young gun in his prime. Even worse, his opponent is someone who has shown to be an absolute dog in the cage with zero quit. This is going to be a firefight and I just don’t know if Poirier has what it takes to survive those these days. This is scheduled for five rounds, which is a long time for damage to accrue. Dustin is more experienced, far more proven and overall more technical. But I just simply have more faith in the much younger, fresher fighter to endure the battle here. St-Denis by stoppage.

Page vs Holland

I’ve been following Michael Page’s career since he started MMA on the European regional circuits. There were viral clips of him landing absurd finishing sequences, such a tornado kick KO, that got me interested. I, like many, was hyped to see him eventually face real competition, seeing the potential for groundbreaking performances. Unfortunately, he turned out to be a total fraud. His fights versus any remotely decent competition are painfully boring as he does everything he can to avoid the fight and instead showboat. Against part time Uber drivers, he can land a flashy KO after some dreadful periods of nothingness but he has proven to absolutely not be elite. Now he’s already 36 years old for his UFC debut, he’s not going to improve. He’s the better technical striker here but the worse grappler. His gameplan will be to showboat like always before either landing a random KO or going to a pathetically boring decision. Holland, if he has two brain cells that are capable of sparking together, will look to pressure with clinches and grappling. Unfortunately, Holland has also shown to be resoundingly unreliable when it comes to strategy and consistency. Still, I slightly favor Holland via grappling.

Della Maddalena vs Burns

Measuring stick time for Jack, as he takes on the crafty veteran in Burns. Jack has great offensive pressure boxing including hooks and shovel uppercuts, but his defense is a bit stiff. He tends to stand upright in a classic defensive boxing stance which doesn’t work against small MMA gloves. He also showed shaky takedown defense just two fights ago. That said, Burns is the worse striker and he hasn’t had much wrestling success in the UFC. Stylistically, this matchup favors Jack on paper. My main concern is the experience and more proven nature to Burns’ game. If there’s a clear exploit in Jack’s approach along the way, Burns will capitalize. If Jack shows up as careless as he did vs Hafez, he will lose. But I expect a disciplined approach with bursts of flurrying offense that leads to a Della Maddalena victory.

Yan vs Yadong

Petyr Yan is a frustrating fighter to watch at times. He’s very skilled and mostly well rounded but doesn’t show up with well planned strategies. He has struggled or outright lost fights because his opponent simply fought in a smarter fashion. On paper, Song is the more powerful puncher but is more vulnerable to being finished in general. Aside from that power, there’s not a clear edge for Yadong here. I expect a smarter approach from Yan but, even if that’s the case, this should still be a tough fight. The pick is Yan in a barn burner, but I am not confident.