Chasing Butterflies Chapter 53: Moving the Market (Patreon)

As soon as the words left her mouth, Olivia knew she'd messed up. Big time.

Maybe she’d just gotten a bit too comfortable. During the whole conversation, she’d felt herself slipping back into her old skin more and more, perhaps because Bryce's dad had treated her more like an adult than most. His words and demeanor ultimately lacked that casual condescension that Olivia had subconsciously gotten used to. Or maybe she was just tired after a long day. Either way, she hadn't been thinking, and that momentary lapse in concentration left her wanting to shove her foot as far into her mouth as it could possibly go.

A quick look around the table made it clear that her slip-up hadn't gone unnoticed, either. Bryce and his mom looked at her blankly, as though not entirely certain what she meant. But his dad? His eyebrows were threatening to climb off his very forehead.

"A Ponzi scheme?" Bryce asked. "Like Aunt Marge's makeup thing?"

"Aunt Marge is not running a Ponzi scheme, dear." His mom replied softly.

"She's clearly not running it. Otherwise she'd actually make a bit of money." Bryce's dad chuckled dryly. "Still, that's a new one. Bennie Rudolph, a Ponzi scheme..."

"Er." Olivia scrambled for an explanation. "I mean, it is a little unbelievable, right? With returns like that... I wouldn't be surprised if they're up to something shady."

Though given his reaction, that's not something that will come up for a while yet. When, though?

She was pretty certain the collapse of that particular company was closely tied to the 2008 financial crisis. Whether it was a precursor to the event or a result of it, she wasn't entirely certain. But here in 2006, that probably meant they were a year or two off of the finance world getting wise to Benny Rudolph's misdeeds.

If things stay the same, of course. Which they should. So long as I don't keep opening my big mouth like that.

Mike shook his head. "I can understand where you're coming from. It does seem too good to be true, doesn't it? But rest assured, Benny Rudolph has cemented itself as quite a trusted name in the industry. A longstanding one, too. Ponzi schemes tend to topple over once they get too big for their britches."

"...Or once people start trying to take their money out," Olivia couldn't help but add. Bryce's dad seemed to hold the company in high regard, meaning he had to have at least some investments in them. And if she was right---which she was certain that she was, after thinking about it a little more---that did not bode well for his or his family's future.

Helping Bryce learn math is one thing. Saving his family from potential destitution? That's... a bit more impactful. And also a lot more gray.

If it were just telling his dad not to invest in the company, that was one thing. But if he did believe her---and that was an absolutely massive "if"---who was to say that information wouldn't spread? Who could be sure that she didn't inadvertently bring about economic collapse a full year or two early by accidentally sparking a panic among investors?

It was yet another dilemma. Solve the problem right in front of her, or let things lie in hopes of chasing down the future she wanted? Neither had a guaranteed outcome, either. Even if she explained the whole Benny Rudolph scandal in as much detail as she could remember, she was still a fourteen-year-old girl. The chance that anyone took her seriously was vanishingly small.

...Though maybe that's a good thing. Maybe the fact that no one will take me seriously means I can be a little more open about this stuff? Though I'm only in this situation because I got too comfortable talking to Bryce's dad... 

"I suppose you're right about that." Mike shook his head and smiled, interrupting her internal turmoil. "Well. Even if you don't like that option, there's plenty of other places you could invest your money. Have you ever heard of Larisco Growth?"

Mike moved past the topic of Benny Rudolph, instead moving onto a litany of other companies and hedge funds. The latter he didn't dwell on for too long, especially once it became clear that Olivia knew next to nothing about them. She'd never been that into finance. But some of the individual companies he listed off were pretty interesting. Many were too niche for her to recognize or long since defunct, but she was surprised by how many names she actually recognized.

Despite Bryce's initial exasperation, he actually engaged quite a bit as well. Most of his contributions came in the form of noting how popular or obscure a brand was among his peers, especially if it correlated to a store in town. Olivia got the sense that this wasn't a particularly uncommon occurrence around the dinner table.

"Smash Hit?" Olivia echoed. "The movie rental company?"

Mike nodded. "That's right. It's been going up lately, but I don't trust it. I think that's just a small blip."

"Danny works at the one downtown," Bryce chimed in as he dug into his third bowl of chili. "He says it's the easiest job ever. Barely anyone comes in anymore. I'm pretty sure he sleeps for half his shift."

"Exactly." Bryce's dad agreed. "Alice, weren't you telling me about that DVD rental kiosk that recently popped up? The one outside the grocery store?"

The woman nodded. "Yes. I didn't do much more than glance at it, though the Johnsons have used it. They say it's quite a nice system."

"See, that's the future," Mike said triumphantly. "The startup costs on that are rock bottom. And you don't have to pay rent on a whole building or even pay employees? It's like a dream. If they can pull it off, Smash Hit's gonna go the way of the dinosaur."

Olivia couldn't help but chuckle. The man was right, of course. But those rental kiosks would also be little more than a blip in history once streaming came along.

Though we're still a little ways off from that, I guess. With internet speeds right now, that's practically flying car territory for most people. In the meantime, riding that blip will be his best bet… And so far, it seems like he’s on the right track.

She tried not to let slip too much, of course. But it was pretty fascinating to get a picture of the business landscape from two decades ago.

Mike was just about to launch into a more in-depth analysis of his portfolio when Bryce butted in. "Wow, would you look at the time! It's getting late. We should get back to studying. Y'know, for that big test tomorrow?”

Olivia looked down and belatedly realized that her chili bowl had been empty for a while now. Bryce's dad just laughed and shook his head. "Ah, listen to your old man ramble on. He's right. You didn't come here for a consultation. Though if you ever do want one—or if you want help opening a brokerage account—our door is always open."

"Thank you. That's very kind of you to offer.” Olivia gave the man a genuine smile. “I may just take you up on it.”

Right. Accessing the stock market isn't as simple as just downloading an app in this day and age... Especially since apps don't exist yet. The fact that I'm a minor's not going to help, either. That could be a big problem.

She really didn't know what that whole process looked like. At this point, the system may still require her to physically call up a broker for each trade. That would be maddeningly inefficient, but considering her specific use case, not the worst outcome possible. Assuming she even could open up an account in the first place.

So far, she’d been pretty lucky with regard to her personal freedoms. Sure, there were plenty of areas where she felt the shackles of youth keenly—being unable to drive or simply buy things one her own certainly grated. But she’d always been a bit of a homebody, and it was honestly a bit refreshing that online shopping was a little more limited at this point. It was still well on its way to being the juggernaut she knew, but the fact that she couldn’t simply order anything under the sun and have it at her door in two days was a nice lesson in patience.

But if she did want to do something with her money… That was certainly one area that she foresaw issues. Her dad had always seen the stock market as tantamount to gambling, and though Jason had disabused her of that notion, convincing her dad would be a whole other ballgame. This was a particular problem given that she was all but certain that she'd need some form of parental consent for any of this. Having an in like Bryce’s dad might help, and it might even lend some legitimacy to the ask if she decided to go that route.

Of course, once she was able to invest, the options were limitless. She could utilize some of her future knowledge to game the stock market like any proper regressor would do. Even if she didn't watch it like a hawk as her husband had, she still knew enough companies that became household names that she would have no trouble placing accurate investments and making some money.

But in truth, investing in that way was more likely to raise questions. She’d already stepped on a landmine by talking about Benny Rudolph. How many more would it take before people started paying attention? It also didn't feel remotely in the spirit of lying low and keeping her changes minimal.

…As much luck as I’ve had with that so far. But this feels different. Most of the other changes I’ve made have been to help the people right in front of me. This…

Investing and making money would benefit herself, true. But not immediately. She’d be doing it for the sake of her future family. To fund their future and make sure they were all taken care of as well as she could possibly manage. So long as she didn't spend it, then it would have absolutely no effect on anything. It was one of the most easily justifiable things she could do. But she still couldn't help but hesitate a bit.

Alice quietly cleared the table as Olivia and Bryce settled in to start studying once more. His dad retreated to the other room, picking his newspaper back up and undoubtedly flipping to the finance section. Olivia turned to the football player and couldn't help but ask. "Does he have you investing?"

"You'd better believe it." Bryce sighed. "He got me set up with his brokerage before I could even walk."

"Now that's an exaggeration," his dad called from the other room. "I waited until you were three years old. And I must say, some of your chosen investments certainly raised eyebrows at the office. Lots of toy and candy companies. And that one construction firm, which is still doing quite well I'll have you know."

“I don’t think that a kid saying ‘dog’ means he wants to invest in Dogwood Equipment and Solutions, dad.” Bryce shook his head. "So, yeah. I've heard it all before."

Olivia couldn't help but laugh. Jason would totally do that. He already has the kids save up their money and pay for their own field trips. This... this would be right up his alley.

Maybe she'd suggest it to him, once the kids got a little older. Well, assuming she'd get the chance.

If things go according to plan. If...

She dropped her gaze and tried to ignore the doubt welling up within. She told herself that it would be ok. She had to keep moving forward, believing that the changes she'd made weren't going to put her dreams out of arm's reach. It was her only choice. Otherwise...

...I have to believe that there's a light at the end of the tunnel. Even if I take a different path to get there. That's the only thing keeping me going.

She forced a smile to her face. "All right. Where did we leave off?"

***

Mr. Rogers looked up from his newspaper as his son escorted the girl to the door. She gave a final wave of goodbye before heading down the driveway, hurrying toward the car that idled along the curb.

Not old enough to drive. But old enough to recognize Benny Rudolph’s name.

It wasn't completely out of the question. Even though Bryce had never shown much interest in his father's work, there were certainly other kids who did. Somewhere. He'd never met one himself, but he'd heard enough tales of Lewis's entrepreneurial son to know they existed. Not to mention the youth who ended up on the 25 Under 25 list.

Still, something about the interaction needled at him.

"The Ponzi scheme?"

Though she'd tried to backpedal a bit, but her tone had been entirely serious—incredulous, even. She'd seemed genuinely confused as to why anyone would be singing the company's praises. Dead certain about it, too.

"What grade is that friend of yours in again?" Mr. Rogers asked his son. Bryce paused on his way toward the stairs.

"She's a freshman."

Mr. Rogers hummed thoughtfully. "Bright girl.”

“Yup. Smartest in the class by a longshot.”

“You certainly seem to get along well, too."

Bryce shrugged in an attempt to be casual. “She’s cool.”

“Uh-huh.” Mr. Rogers raised his eyebrows knowingly.

“Dad.”

"What?"

"It's not like that. Don't be weird."

Mr. Rogers chuckled. "Just making an observation. Though you're welcome to invite her over anytime. I wasn't joking when I said our door is always open."

As his son headed up the stairs, Mr. Rogers returned to his paper. Though his attention remained elsewhere.

That girl's idle comment nagged at him. Those returns were quite good. Astonishingly so. But were they truly too good to be true?

Benny Rudolph had been around so long that no one batted an eye at the numbers—they were simply good at their jobs, that was all. But what if...?

Mr. Rogers shifted his newspaper. Maybe he was reading too deeply into things. But he'd always prided himself on the thoroughness of his investigations, of knowing more about each company he invested in than some brokers knew about their own families. He had treated Benny Rudolph with the same scrutiny, way back when he'd first started investing in them. But it had been a while since then.

He'd have a bit of extra time tomorrow morning. Perhaps he'd take an hour to dig into their books again, see what kinds of secrets they held. Maybe it would be business as usual. Or maybe he’d learn something.