Episode 117: A CLASH OF KINGS, DAVOS II, Part 3 SHOW NOTES! (Patreon)

Hello and welcome to the Not A Cast … podcast: the one true chapter-by-chapter podcast going through A Song of Ice and Fire one chapter a week. I’m one of your hosts Jeff better known as BryndenBFish. 

And I’m your other host Emmett, better known as PoorQuentyn.          

Welcome to the one hundred and seventeenth episode of the Not A Cast, titled: “Shadow of a Doubt, Part 3: An Analysis of ACOK, Davos II,” in which Stannis and Davos continue their conversation. We’re never getting out of this chapter alive!

Introduction of Matt

Matt says hi

This episode is brought to you by our Small Council: 

• Hand of the King WolfmanZack 
• Grandmaester Timbob, troubleshooter of systems and designer of circuit boards
• Lord Commander of the Kingsguard Mark N. 
• Lord Travis, Master of Ships and Warden of the Waves, Captain of the war galley NIGHT WOLF, the ship that stalks the Seven Seas, and Wielder of the Valyrian Steel trident SUMMONER, the blade that brings the Deep Ones
• Ser Keith J, Master of Whisperers
• Lord Philip the Merciful, Master of Laws
• Archmaester June, Healer of the Lesser Poxes
• Ragged Michael, Warden of the North
• Nelson the Hammer, Prince of Dragonstone
• Scarlett the Other Red Woman and Mistress of Whisperers
• Lord Micah, who adds The Quilled Lion, Warden of the West, Herald of the Golden Tooth, Master of the Banefort and the Kraken’s Bane to his title
• Lord James: the Jim that was Promised
• The High Bearded Priest
• Lord Jake, Assistant (to the) Hand of the King
• Lady Xena Valyrian
• Ser Jack, Lord of Ser Arthur Dayne and Prince Rhaegar Targaryen's Sad Prophecy Boys Club
• His Grace’s High Inquisitor Frank
• Ser Jasper the Cruel, the King’s Justice
• Laurence, Prince of Dorne
• Kelly, Warden of the East and Mistress of (Old) Bay of Crabs
• Steven the Steadfast, Master of Hounds
• The Blue Winter Rose Knight of Highgarden
• Lady Stephanie
• Lord Anonymous
• Lord Carlos
• Lord Andrew the Restless, a Priest of the Drowned God
• The King's Cook, Nolly (No-lee) Olly (Oh-lee), Master of Cannoli
• Ser Sourcedelica 
• Prince Matthew of House Targaryen - Proud Soy Boy of Summerhall, Defender of the 5th Book and Swing Dancer with Dragons
• Ser K.W. Dent, Elsie of the Blackwood Guard, and Batman of the Seven Kingdoms
• Lord Penchant for Nostalgia
• Queer Alex, Rainbow Commander of the They-des and Gentle-thems (ladies and gentlemen)
• Lord Clint, Esq., Master of Absolutely, Positively NOT Serving As A Spy for Several Unnamed High Lords and Ladies In Order to Further the Secret Blackfyre-Style Conspiracy to Overthrow The Oppressive Small Council
• Haldivar, The Waiter for TWOW
• A-a-ron Damphair Prophet of the Forsaken and High Priest of Euron Crows Eye
• Lieutenant Glenn Lord of H town
• Vanerys of the House Colgaryen, the First of Her Name, Princess of Dragonstone, Mistress of Art, The Overworked, Queen of the Pencils, the Eraser and the First Draft, Queen of Monochrome, Devotee of the Great GOT, Portraitist of the Realm, Lady Realist of the Seven Kingdoms, Blender of Paints and Maker of Drawings
• Seanwell the Slayer
• Lord Adam T
• Lady Alexandra of Tarth
• Ser Kristoph Logas, Bloody Scorpion of the Red Field, Defender of the Letter of Kin, and the Wolverine of house Qorgyle
• Lady Elizabeth, Mistress of Horse (Faced Lesbians)
• Ser Josh Snow Bastard Bounty Hunter of the North
• Ser Veyor, Chief of Parties in the Frozen Wastes
• Lord Peter
• Lady Ashley
• The Dead Sheppard Reborn, Preacher of the Poor Fellows
• Marshall Harrison—Absent, shipwrecked in the Jade Sea
• Grave-Robb Stark, the Cadaver King and Horror of Harrenhal
• Olaf, proponent of establishing a feudal, pseudodemocratic system of Great Councils, wherein every count votes
• Ser Tim: The Knight Who Was Guided By Voices
• Lord Nick
• Thucydides, Lord of Plagues
• Ser Jack, Lord of Ser Arthur Dayne and Prince Rhaegar Targaryen’s Sad Prophecy Boys Club
• Lord Gene the Splendid, Master of Coin, Warden of Tampa Bay who claims that the recent repairs made to his enormous pleasure barge came about after a close friend of his named Royal T. Reasury left him an inheritance.
• And our newest members of the small council: 
  • Lady Anna, The Lovely Castellan
  • Pat Yronwood, the bloodroyal and guardian of the Boneway

Spoiler warning: All published books, 5 novels, 3 Dunk and Egg novellas, histories, interviews, TWOW sample chapters, as well as Game of Thrones the TV show. Anything and everything!

Question

Ser John of the Misty Isle, a Sworn Sword patron, asks:

Hi guys, loving the month of Stannis and Davos. Keep up the good work. 

I have a question about one of the most maligned storylines from the latter part of the show and how something similar could happen in the books, I’m of course talking of the wight hunt from season 7. The whole premise of the coolest characters trekking up north to kidnap a wight and persuade the rest of the realm the threat is real is of course ridiculous but someone, probably Jon is in a position in the books to do something similar when he comes back to life. Do you think the two dead rangers he has stashed in the ice cells could be used to convince the south that the Others are real if they were to reanimate? It wouldn’t even be the first time this has been tried since LC Mormont sent a hand south with Ser Alliser in the first book and only Tyrion’s dislike of that particular envoy stopped the hand being presented at court. What are your thoughts or do you have any ideas on how the dead rangers will play a role?

So, thank you Ser John of the MistyIsle for your question. If you’d like to ask us questions we’ll answer here on the NotACast pod-cast, you are welcome to become a Sworn Sword or higher patron over at patreon.com/NotACastASOIAF where you can find show notes, special posts and bonus episodes like part two of “The Second Coming”, our four part analysis of TWOW, The Forsaken.

Definitely my favorite patreon episode to date. It’s available for all of our Poor Fellow and above patrons right now! (Or tomorrow if you’re a Poor Fellow and watching this episode live). But enough about patreon. When we last checked in Davos, he had perhaps the best conversation in all of ASOIAF. Let’s find out what happens with Davos in this synopsis of ACOK, Davos II, part 3!

Synopsis

Stannis and Davos arrive back to a busy camp after their little chit-chat. As this is a Stannis camp, you’ve got an orderly rows of tents, weapons stacked neatly. But there was the smell of horseshit about. Wonder if that’s speaking to …

Stannis orders Alester Florent and the rest of his useless lords to get fucking lost for a while. Come back in an hour for a war council. The King then orders Davos and Melisandre to accompany him to the king’s pavilion.

The tent had to be large, since it was there his lords bannermen came to council. Yet there was nothing grand about it. It was a soldier's tent of heavy canvas, dyed the dark yellow that sometimes passed for gold. Only the royal banner that streamed atop the center pole marked it as a king's. That, and the guards without; queen's men leaning on tall spears, with the badge of the fiery heart sewn over their own.

Grooms helps everyone dismount. The standard Melisandre was carrying get staked in the ground too. Devan Seaworth and an older squire assist with refreshment. Would anyone like anything?

"Cold water, cups for two. Davos, attend me. My lady, I shall send for you when I require you."

"As the king commands." Melisandre bowed.

After the brightness of the morning, the interior of the pavilion seemed cool and dim. Stannis seated himself on a plain wooden camp stool and waved Davos to another. "One day I may make you a lord, smuggler. If only to irk Celtigar and Florent. You will not thank me, though. It will mean you must suffer through these councils, and feign interest in the braying of mules."

"Why do you have them, if they serve no purpose?"

"The mules love the sound of their own braying, why else? And I need them to haul my cart. Oh, to be sure, once in a great while some useful notion is put forth. But not today, I think"

Devan sets the tray down and Davos asks him what he meant by the council he’s about to hear from his lords bannermen. Well, Stannis thinks Velaryon will want to storm Storm’s End, Estermont will want to continue besieging the castle. The idiot knights and lord will want to go the single combat route.

The king finished his water. "What would you have me do, smuggler?"

Davos considered a moment before he answered. "Strike for King's Landing at once."

The king snorted. "And leave Storm's End untaken?"

"Ser Cortnay does not have the power to harm you. The Lannisters do. A siege would take too long, single combat is too chancy, and an assault would cost thousands of lives with no certainty of success. And there is no need. Once you dethrone Joffrey this castle must come to you with all the rest. It is said about the camp that Lord Tywin Lannister rushes west to rescue Lannisport from the vengeance of the northmen . . . "

"You have a passing clever father, Devan," the king told the boy standing by his elbow. "He makes me wish I had more smugglers in my service. And fewer lords.” 

Still, there is a need in Stannis’ mind. He can’t live with the idea that people will say he left Storm’s End untaken. People don’t love Stannis. They follow him because of fear. Defeat would mean bad shit to that whole fear thing. He needs Storm’s End and soon. Doran Martell is behind him now with his armies blocking the Prince’s Pass and Boneway. And then there’s the whole issue of Highgarden. He sent Ser Errol Florent and Ser Parmen Crane to treat with Mace Tyrell, but these two bros have not returned. Maybe Loras made it there first and poisoned Mace Tyrell against Stannis’ envoys.

"All the more reason to take King's Landing as soon as we may. Salladhor Saan told me-"

"Salladhor Saan thinks only of gold!" Stannis exploded. "His head is full of dreams of the treasure he fancies lies under the Red Keep, so let us hear no more of Salladhor Saan. The day I need military counsel from a Lysene brigand is the day I put off my crown and take the black." The king made a fist. "Are you here to serve me, smuggler? Or to vex me with arguments?"

"I am yours," Davos said.

Stannis then proceeds to talk about how a twenty y/o kid by the name of Lord Meadows is second in command to Ser Cortnay. If Penrose accidentally, by-chance, who-knows-what-will-happen die, then this guy would be in charge. And he’d surrender. Davos wonders at this, stating that twenty was practically Stannis’ age at Storm’s End during Robert’s Rebellion. You sure he’s not hard-headed like you, ur grace? Stannis is fairly sure that Meadows is not the same young man that Stannis was. 

But anyways, so, about Cortnay. How is he supposed to accidentally, by-chance, who-knows-what-will-happen, you-can’t-prove-shit die? He seems like he’s been doing squats.  As to how, notice that Renly was also doing squats? The night is dark and full of terrors.

Davos Seaworth felt the small hairs rising on the back of his neck. "My lord, I do not understand you."

"I do not require your understanding. Only your service. Ser Cortnay will be dead within the day. Melisandre has seen it in the flames of the future. His death and the manner of it. He will not die in knightly combat, needless to say." Stannis held out his cup, and Devan filled it again from the flagon. "Her flames do not lie. She saw Renly's doom as well. On Dragonstone she saw it, and told Selyse. Lord Velaryon and your friend Salladhor Saan would have had me sail against Joffrey, but Melisandre told me that if I went to Storm's End, I would win the best part of my brother's power, and she was right."

"B-but," Davos stammered, "Lord Renly only came here because you had laid siege to the castle. He was marching toward King's Landing before, against the Lannisters, he would have-"

Stannis starts heckling Davos about his confusion. Renly came to Storm’s End for his doom. Besides, Melisandre saw another vision in the flames when Renly smashed his army under the walls of King’s Landing. It was a kill or be killed scenario, Davos. Not that Stannis had anything to do with Renly’s extremely timely, not-suspicious, who-did-it death.

But Davos’ perspective is different. What about free will? What if destiny is a lie? What if you two joined together to fight in #THEWAR against the Lannisters? Besides, if Melisandre saw two visions in the flames, they both can’t be true. That’s just some horseshit, ur grace.

King Stannis pointed a finger. "There you err, Onion Knight. Some lights cast more than one shadow. Stand before the nightfire and you'll see for yourself. The flames shift and dance, never still. The shadows grow tall and short, and every man casts a dozen. Some are fainter than others, that's all. Well, men cast their shadows across the future as well. One shadow or many. Melisandre sees them all.”

That also sounds like some horseshit, ur grace. But we press on. 

Stannis knows that no one loves Melisandre -- especially Davos. Stannis’ lords bannermen are also critical. Estermont doesn’t want the flaming heart and wants to go to #WAR with the crowned stag of old. Guyard Morrigen says that women can’t be standard bearers lol. No, no not misogyny. It’s just the woman part of it. Lol. Meanwhile, others whisper about Melisandre participating in war councils and spending the night in Stannis’ tent. She’s only there to serve, Davos. No need to fret!

"Serves how?" Davos asked, dreading the answer.

"As needed." The king looked at him. "And you?"

"I . . . " Davos licked his lips. "I am yours to command. What would you have me do?"

Davos is going to do something he’s familiar with. Get into Storm’s End, passing to the castle unseen. You able to do that? Sure. Tonight? Yes, tonight. Small boat. No Black Betha. Davos ain’t sure about this. He thinks he should speak up. He has sons and wonders what in the world Melisandre did to Stannis. The king notices and asks him why he’s so quiet. 

And should remain so, Davos told himself, yet instead he said, "My liege, you must have the castle, I see that now, but surely there are other ways. Cleaner ways. Let Ser Cortnay keep the bastard boy and he may well yield."

"I must have the boy, Davos. Must. Melisandre has seen that in the flames as well."

Davos groped for some other answer. "Storm's End holds no knight who can match Ser Guyard or Lord Caron, or any of a hundred others sworn to your service. This single combat . . . could it be that Ser Cortnay seeks for a way to yield with honor? Even if it means his own life?"

A troubled look crossed the king's face like a passing cloud. "More like he plans some treachery. There will be no combat of champions. Ser Cortnay was dead before he ever threw that glove. The flames do not lie, Davos."

Yet they require me to make them true, he thought. It had been a long time since Davos Seaworth felt so sad.

And that is ACOK, Davos II, Part 3! It seems we’ve progressed beyond the small insignificant matters of justice and prophecy progressed onto the other insignificant matter of destiny, free will and prophecy. Although not as dense as our last section, it still contains a lot of plot and character beats to chew on. What did you gentlemen think?

Depth

We’re picking up right where we left off last week! Literally, but also in terms of theme and character. Stannis and Davos continue to dig deeper into all the complex issues being raised by the standoff at Storm’s End. The political issues, the military issues, the prophetic issues--all of them swirl together into a single ethical debate. As with previous Stannis and Davos scenes, one gets the sense of the entire story orbiting this. So much is at stake, yet George never loses sight of the particular and peculiar intimacy at work between the pauper and the prince.

Matt opening thoughts

Stannis is the worst and deserves the flames. That’s what you all were hoping for right? To take this a bit more seriously and less on brand for me, this conversation shows the tragic downfall of Stannis Baratheon. He struggles to find the true path to what he really wants and instead keeps walking into rakes like a teeth grinding Sideshow Bob while Davos desperately tries to steer him away from the next rake to the forehead meanwhile Melisandre assures him it’s all for the greater good. But some part of Stannis knows what he’s doing is wrong, that he is literally playing with fire by going down the path Melisandre gives him. The point of this conversation for Stannis has little to do with what Davos has to say, he doesn’t care what Davos has to suggest. The know-it-all Stannis can’t wait to show off for Davos that he already has calculated what all his lords will say he should do. What he wants, what he needs is re-assurance from his external moral hard drive. He wants to hear Melisandre’s plan bounce off someone who isn’t completely tied up in his own ego and anger after being embarrassed by Cortnay Penrose. He wants Davos to suggest killing Cortnay, to know that what he is doing is logical and right.

This is where the story for Stannis, and many other high profile characters, is swirling down into. What is the limit of how far you will go when you believe the fate of an entire world is hanging on your success or failure? Isn’t the throne of Westeros and the power to beat back the unending darkness worth the life of one stubborn knight who won’t yield Storm’s End to a superior force? Boy that sounds familiar. Stannis needed Renly’s troops more than he needed his brother, he’s the Prince that Was Promised after all! And yet, there is a cloud of doubt across his face when Davos challenges him about Cortnay and Renly. Moments that give Stannis pause. If this is right, if killing your brother, taking your nephew into captivity as a future sacrifice, killing a knight doing his duty and protecting an innocent is just and righteous then why can’t Stannis sleep? Why does it feel wrong, why is he looking to Davos to reassure him and be the voice of reason he can’t hear? Why can’t he stop thinking about a peach instead of the lives he is going to save from his throne? Stannis has become Faust, making a deal with a red witch for the power he needs and trying not to see the price he paid for it. 

In our livestream chat from last week, Ser Frank B, our small council king’s justice, brought up the question of why we were skewering Stannis’ conception of justice so much when Stannis is an improvement from almost everyone else in Westeros. I’ve been thinking a lot about that. (Thanks, Frank. I hate thinking). The answer from my perspective is two-fold: I think there should be a correction to the fan-idea that Stannis is a justice robot who is animated only to reward good behavior and people and punish evil behavior and people. As we’ve attempted to say here on the NotACast pod-cast since the ACOK Prologue and onward, it’s a profound misread of Stannis as a character and robs the richness that Martin puts into Stannis. 

The second reason why we shade Stannis on the question of justice is the hypocrisy angle. Yes, I think it’s a shame that hypocrisy is the only modern sin. All the same, you get judged against what you publicly stand for. Stannis is always going on about how he’ll bring justice to Westeros. It was just what he did to Davos. Justice, justice, justice. If that’s what you’re constantly on about, and you fail to live up the high standard you put forward, readers should hold Stannis to that standard -- especially when he fails to live up to it. And that’s exactly what we’ll continue doing here: begging our king to live up to his own standard.

• The political logistics
  • As Stannis mourns Renly, swearing he will go to his grave thinking of his brother’s peach, he and Davos ride into the reason he went to war anyway: the big powerful army that now follows Stannis, with all their sounds and smells
  • As in the Riverlands, pleasant and unpleasant smells comingle. The stench of dung persists beneath the smell of cooking meat; this will all turn to shit
  • Stannis snaps out a “brusque dismissal” to the other lords, once more allowing his understandable disdain for them to infect his style of kingship
  • They approach Stannis’ tent, which George describes as large but not grand. A soldier’s tent, with no adornments to catch the eye. The opposite of Renly’s tent
  • Back we go to the duality of Stannis. On the one hand, there’s an admirable lack of pretense here. Stannis has no time for Renly’s gaudy expressions of wealth 
  • On the other hand, Renly didn’t rely on those overwhelming visual signifiers of power just because that was his personal style. It’s effective politics!
  • In a world in which dyed fabric is costly and mass media is not a thing, the orgiastic explosion of color that defined Renly’s camp is immensely effective
  • It made him look like a god-king, Garth Greenhand reborn, more convincingly than Stannis’ literal assumption of god-king status signaled by R’hllor’s fiery heart
  • As is so often the case, what makes Stannis more admirable than his peers on one hand also cuts him off from their level of support, and he has to know that
  • Part of Renly’s appeal was to the biological and ideological heirs to Garth and the chivalry of the south that Garth personified and Renly appealed to.
  • Certainly, the appeal extended beyond the nobility as Renly’s army was massive -- 80-100,000 strong, and there were tens of thousands of common soldiers in the army.
  • But Meribald points out in AFFC, the common soldiers (who later become broken men in the story he’s telling) generally aren’t volunteering for their service: 
    • Almost all are common-born, simple folk who had never been more than a mile from the house where they were born until the day some lord came round to take them off to war.
  • I have to imagine that’s part of the dynamic with the army Renly put together: a combination of nobles enthralled with the chivalric optics coupled with those pressed into service by those enthralled nobles.
  • I’m driving at this point, because, as I’ve pointed out, it’s the common soldiers who stick with Stannis and believe in his cause long after it’s advantageous to do so.
  • Why? The tent is a good example of why this is the case.
  • It’s not entirely clear whether Stannis is making a deliberate statement with his choice of tentage, or whether it’s the utility of having a soldier’s tent.
  • Be it accidental or intentional, that appeals to these common dudes. An officer who isn’t wearing the gaudy armor of your Alester Florents, who isn’t partaking in the fine foods in evidence at the Caswell Feast appeals to the smallfolk soldiers.
  • You might be in the army because you’ve been forced at swordpoint to join up (abolish Selective Service), but these draftees still look at Stanis and think “That’s my guy.”
    • Whatever doubts his lords might nurse, the common men seemed to have faith in their king. Stannis had smashed Mance Rayder's wildlings at the Wall and cleaned Asha and her ironborn out of Deepwood Motte; he was Robert's brother, victor in a famous sea battle off Fair Isle, the man who had held Storm's End all through Robert's Rebellion. And he bore a hero's sword, the enchanted blade Lightbringer, whose glow lit up the night.
  • So, the tent is a double-edged sword: yes, it makes Stannis less god-king and less appealing to the nobles. But it makes him more endearing to the smallfolk who, again, he really should have made a strong appeal to as we talked about in part 2. 
  • What’s fascinating about Stannis’ tent is that it has no adornments, it is not gaudy or shows off his power. But that’s probably not what he is going for. In this chapter and others, he struggles to articulate what those who serve him even like about him. It’s his keen sense of justice, bringing law and order back to Westeros! No it’s that they fear him! No it’s that he is the one true king! No it’s that he will save all their lives with his leadership! Stannis has a simple tent because he doesn’t want to be like Robert and Renly, not to make the common folk love him. And yet it only serves to add to his confusion
  • If you gave him 100 tries, he would not guess that his choice in having a normal tent is something that his common soldiers like about him. He is as baffled at their loyalty to him as he is about why so few of his peers like him. Renly would look at Stannis’ tent and understand how that simple choice is endearing to the common troops. Stannis looks at his and would say “it keeps my bald spot dry.”
  • Funny call-back though in ADWD when Melisandre criticizes Jon for taking the former quarters of Donal Noye instead of one of the towers. That he is being very dangerous at ignoring the power of symbols of authority and how all their trapping of power is a necessary act, a SHADOW ON THE WALL. Imagine how frustrated Melisandre must’ve been looking at Stannis’ common tent as she desperately tries to give him lessons on appearing powerful and like a ruler. 
    • Side note, while Meli is full team Stannis, she would’ve found a much more willing and skilled user of PR in Renly. Imagine the faith of Rhllor with Renly and Mel at the head. 
  • What makes Stannis such a well-written character in my opinion is that this dynamic persists down to every little detail about him. Even his drink order!
  • Robert was an alcoholic whose love for booze is what killed him, so naturally, Stannis ran in the opposite direction. Way too far. He drinks literal saltwater
  • This is so funny to me, in the way that Stannis’ image often is because George tips it right over into parody. Imagine being so committed to being the stoic sober straight edge member of the family that you choke down saltwater to own the libs
  • Stannis is like Aeron Damphair in that way, refusing to realize what it means that the rest of the culture doesn’t work this way. Even Davos, so devoted to Stannis that he calls his king his god, wishes his water (taken straight) was wine
  • Yet still, Davos remains loyal, because of who brings them the water. Devan Seaworth, the smuggler’s son become a king’s squire, upward mobility embodied
  • That’s what’s at stake for Davos, more than the crown itself that Stannis removes and hands to Devan. Yet his sons will burn to make this dream come true
  • The way in which Davos is always standing on a political knife’s edge, good fortune on one side and the abyss on the other, is captured in the dialogue too
  • Stannis declares that one day, he might make his smuggler a lord, a dramatic change to the rules of power in Westeros...but only to piss the other lords off
  • Stannis is simultaneously a revolutionary and a reactionary, forever complicating his character. He is backing his way selfishly into an admirable position
  • Stannis wants to lift up Davos not as part of an overall political program that speaks to the problems of power in Westeros (a la Beric Dondarrion), but rather, because Stannis hates his peers and wants to see the looks on their faces
  • And indeed, the look on Axell Florent’s face when Stannis humbles him before Davos in ASOS is very satisfying...but GRRM links Stannis to Baelor I there
  • Baelor the Blessed did many admirable things, but also many wretched things, and ultimately is framed by George as a wayward obsessive, not a role model
  • His devotion to religion inspired some great acts of charity along the way, but ultimately manifested as paranoia, alienation, and a departure from reality
  • Stannis’ critique of his own class always comes back to how they have treated him, a reflection of how Robert and Renly treated him. It’s a self-centered POV
  • To give Stannis some credit, however, he does actually have a specific critique to make about those lords here: their advice is predictable and useless
  • And he wants Davos around for some company, someone to roll his eyes at as his new lords mouth their empty courtesies and squabble with one another
  • We’ll get into this more in ASOS, but a question running under the surface of this scene is whether or not Stannis is going to extend this beyond the individual
  • He tells Devan that because of Davos’ intelligence, Stannis desires fewer lords and more smugglers at his side. That has the potential to change everything…
  • ...but I say “potential” because there is little indication Stannis would ever act on this passing fancy. As late as Theon’s released chapter from TWOW, he still filters his plans to take and hold power through the lords as they exist
  • This makes him no different from the other Kings of Westeros, of course, but again, it’s uniquely frustrating in Stannis’ case because he seems to know better
  • It gets back to this sense from Stannis that justice and easing the social strata of Westeros is either a passing fancy as you said or something that is down the road.
  • Thankfully, in this particular instance of raising Davos to knighthood, that’s something that’s down the road that Stannis actually does.
  • But Stannis is an institutionalist. He’s grown up in this rigidly stratified world, and he’s benefited from it.
  • Yes, Stannis has a sad backstory, but when his parents died, he had a maester to serve as foster father, a castle to live in, food to eat. The same can’t be said for most of the smallfolk who lose their parents -- think Weasel from Arya’s story in ACOK.
  • In a way, Stannis’ relative privilege reminds me of Jon Snow as we were talking about when he was a bully, and Donal Noye set him straight.
  • It’s in these younger sons, the ones in the shadows that can see the perspective of others much better than those who were gifted good lives.
  • But let’s not let our Stannis love blind us exactly. Stannis has got a “peasant friend.” Jon has an entire organization of poors that he’s operating alongside of and will lead in just a bit.
  • And when Jon is in a leadership position, he makes positive, substantive improvements in the lives of people, refusing to distinguish between “northman” and “wildling”.
  • Stannis … names Davos as a lord. Eventually. It’s a positive change. Not much of one though.
  • Stannis teases Davos that he will name him a lord for his great service, but several times shows just how hollow that means to him. He openly calls his lords buffoons he doesn’t respect or need. Really low balling your offer there. And then when it comes back to Salador Saan, the one ally Davos has in this administration, Stannis flies off the handle and yells about all Saan wants is gold. Uhhhhh yeah sure Stannis, ONLY Saan wants to loot King’s landing for riches. No Lord would do that. Classism from Stannis showing Davos that while Stannis might elevate the smuggler (as he often calls Davos), there will always be a lord servant relationship not peers. 
  • Davos tries to push Stannis in a different direction, more explicitly in ASOS, but it starts here. Why have these councils at all, if they’re so useless? Or, put a little differently: why have these lords at all, if they’re so useless?
  • Stannis responds that these mules love the sound of their own braying (hilarious and true) and he needs them to pull his cart (less hilarious, debatably true)
  • Davos will use precisely this same imagery, but to inverted effect, in ASOS: you have put the cart before the horse, your Grace. You have assumed justice is something that comes after you take the Throne, but it must come first
  • Here and now, Stannis lays out for Davos how the council will go. The old mules will caution patience: starve out Ser Cortnay, taking a year to do so if need be
  • The young mules will want to attack with every war machine available, except for those who like to kick--they will want single combat for their own glory and legacy
  • Stannis then asks for Davos’ take. I love the gravity, the seriousness of purpose in these Stannis-Davos scenes: George working through political philosophy
  • Davos considers for a moment, always shaping his truth into a form Stannis might be able to accept, and then says: we should strike for the Throne, now
  • All the options Stannis laid on the table have fatal flaws: an attack is too costly, single combat too chancy, and a siege would take far too much time
  • Storm’s End is a secondary concern at best in Davos’ mind. Cortnay is no threat to Stannis, and once they take the city, they can deal with Storm’s End later on
  • The Lannisters are the ones with the power to harm Stannis, the true threat everyone has been trying and failing to get Stannis to focus on
  • Moreover, the Lannisters have left themselves vulnerable. Tywin was holed up at Harrenhal in part so he could keep an eye on the Baratheons, close enough to King’s Landing (as Tyrion said earlier in the book) to relieve the city if need be
  • But Davos, his ear to the ground as always, has heard that Tywin has by necessity given up on that strategy to protect the Westerlands from Robb
  • Therefore, the city is as vulnerable as it’s going to get, with only the gold cloaks and Tyrion’s clansmen and sellswords in between Stannis and the Iron Throne
  • Stannis admires Davos’ argument in every respect but one: in his mind, there is a need to take Storm’s End, because if he doesn’t, his reputation will suffer
  • And his reputation is all he has. Men don’t love him like they did Robert and Renly, so he has to make them fear him. Defeat is death to fear
  • I do relate to Stannis here in terms of his isolation from his brothers, the hole inside animating all this. But his argument is bullshit on every possible level
  • First of all, “fear is greater than love” is, like, the definitive villain mantra. Cersei says this same shit at the Blackwater. The very queen Stannis is trying to defeat!
  • Stannis’ objections to plans are specious at best. Why do you need Storm’s End now? Pride. Pride is why he needs the castle to fall. Cortnay Penrose embarrassed Stannis by outing his dirty secret to his men and exposing that Edric Storm is what he actually wants. He’s been whingeing about getting the wrong castle for years, and he thinks he’ll look weak if he can’t knock over Cortnay Penrose.
  • BOY STANNIS MAYBE YOU SHOULD’VE THOUGHT OF THAT BEFORE YOU SHOWED UP TO A PARLAY WITH NO BACK UP PLAN. Okay, we’ll give him everything he wants. What if Cortnay says no and wants to fight you? Psh never happen! I have shadow babies ready to fire! Mel says it will be fine. 
  • Also he draws a comparison between himself and Robert, saying that he can’t afford to seem weak when he doesn’t have the charisma Robert has. What he fails to grasp is that while he thinks he looks silly to not fight Cortnay, he looks equally silly to spend his new massive army trying to take a castle he doesn’t need except to massage his pride. Like calling Marty McFly a chicken, challenge Stannis on a point of his pride and he will never let it go. His obsession with besting his brother has made him think he must be perfect, better, the BEST Baratheon. His campaign must be beautiful and flawless. The one time he’s trying to make a case for appearing impressive he swings at a pitch in the dirt. No one cares about Storm’s End, win the Iron Throne and you can take it at your leisure. 
  • Secondly, it doesn’t actually work! Stannis assassinates Cortnay and takes Storm’s End, but the fear this generates does not bind his men to him
  • Quite the opposite: a bunch of them go on over to Renly’s ghost at the Battle of Blackwater. Those are the wages of trying to rule through fear. Doesn’t work.
  • Thirdly, Stannis slowing himself down at Storm’s End guarantees his ultimate defeat at the Blackwater. Remember, he only loses that battle by hours
  • If he struck north at once as Davos advises, Garlan showing up in Renly’s armor wouldn’t matter one bit. Stannis would have taken the city and executed Joffrey
  • Finally, practically speaking, I don’t see what the danger is to Stannis here. This is not like Robb attacking the Westerlands or the Ironborn attacking the North
  • Tywin has to respond to Robb attacking the Westerlands, because the whole of his territory is at risk. If he doesn’t, his lords and army might desert him
  • Robb has to respond to the Ironborn attacking the North, because the whole of his territory is at risk. If he doesn’t, his lords and army might desert him
  • Now, in both cases, the ability of the invading force is inflated by rumor and distance. Robb can’t actually take the Rock; the Ironborn can’t hold the North
  • But there is a real political incentive to respond. None of that applies here. Stannis has no inaccurate information. He is not at a distance
  • Cortnay does not have the power (nor probably even the will) to go out and conquer the rest of the Stormlands behind Stannis’ back
  • Moreover, he didn’t conquer Storm’s End in the first place! He was given it to hold by Renly, its lord. Stannis didn’t lose this castle, he never had it to begin with
  • So I find the idea that Stannis’ army would desert him on the road to King’s Landing if he left Storm’s End untaken to be highly suspect
  • I don’t think Stannis is responding to actual political and military realities. He is responding to imaginary ones, those he has cooked up in his head, rooted in his certainty he can never be loved, because his brothers never loved him
  • As he himself points out, the castle must fall quickly, because the Lannisters have secured an alliance with Dorne that (unlike Cortnay) could actually threaten the Stormlands, and because Stannis has failed to take control of Renly’s infantry
  • Here’s the part where I’m going to agree with you that Stannis’ reasons for wanting to take Storm’s End are personal and yet disagree on whether it was militarily valid. Man, so much disagreement. We’re really emphasizing the “No” part of the NoTAPodcast!
  • Stannis’ army is 20,000 strong as he tells Cortnay at the start of this chapter, and that seems like a strong figure.
  • The issue is that even with the numbers that he has added onto his army, taking King’s Landing is no sure thing.
  • As Tyrion will say, quoting Tywin, at the Blackwater: one man on the walls is worth ten beneath.
  • At 20K soldiers, Stannis is barely pushing a three to one force advantage to make the attack on King’s Landing, meaning that he’s well under what he needs to be to make a successful attack on the city.
  • So, the odds of him launching a successful attack are diminished.
  • All of that is to say that he needs a line of retreat if things go south at the Blackwater: Storm’s End.
  • As Stannis tells Davos in ADWD:
    • Even Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse. White Harbor would give me a ready source of supply and a secure base to which I could retreat at need.
  • It’s the same military need that Stannis has for Storm’s End. If things don’t go well at King’s Landing, he’s going to need a spot to fall back to, regroup and try again.
  • Secondarily, Doran Martell’s hosts are occupying the Prince’s Pass and the Boneway (lol, yeah, I bet they are occupying the boneway).
  • Unlike Tyrion, Stannis doesn’t have the intelligence network which assesses Doran Martell to be assuming blocking positions.
  • Historically-speaking, the Dornish haven’t been content just to hole up in Dorne when they have the Dornish Marches open to invasion.
  • And Stannis’ great fear is getting caught in a hammer and anvil type scenario ala the Redgrass Field where the walls of King’s Landing are the anvil, and the Dornish are the hammer.
  • (Nice one avoiding that, ur grace)
  • Storm’s End works as both an interdiction point to delay/block any Dornish armies coming up the kingsroad and a beacon tower to alert Stannis’ army if the Dornish are on their way.
  • So, it’s fear, caution and those old familiar emotions regarding Robert and Renly that’s animating Stannis’ decision-making here.
  • Jon Snow has Stannis dead to rights when he described his command philosophy in ADWD
    • Stannis was a deliberate commander, and his host was a half-digested stew of clansmen, southron knights, king's men and queen's men, salted with a few northern lords. He should move on Winterfell swiftly, or not at all, Jon thought. It was not his place to advise the king, but …
  • Stannis’ caution in the field is a double-edged sword (it always is with Stannis). 
  • On one hand, it allows him to plan and pull off some of the most daring and tactically complex battles -- luring the Iron Fleet into battle at Fair Isle and using a partial cavalry envelopment at the Wall against Mance.
  • On the other hand, it’s a deliberate character contrast to Robert, and it slows everything down when Stannis probably should be prioritizing Davos’ more speedy approach.
  • Davos points out that this is all the more reason to leave right fucking now. Salladhor Saan says the city is ripe...and then Stannis loses his temper
  • All Salla wants is gold. He’s no better than the turncloak lords who Stannis needs but despises, scorning their useless advice. Stannis’ pride comes out so strongly here, saying he will take the black before he listens to a Lysene pirate
  • Ironically, in ASOS, Stannis will sail north to the Wall to rescue the Night’s Watch, and he will do so because Davos, a former smuggler, told him to do so
  • But here in ACOK, he tells Davos that Davos, like everyone else, is here to serve, not “vex me with arguments.” How dare you give the honest advice I asked you to give! How dare you point out that I am completely full of shit!
  • Just as Stannis doesn’t want to deal with his culpability in Renly’s death, he doesn’t want to acknowledge that Davos, his conscience, is making points
  • So instead, he falls back on precisely the hierarchy that he was hinting earlier he might want to invert. This is where we see the limitations of that
  • Stannis will raise up Davos to irk the other lords...but when Davos instead irks Stannis, Stannis will slap him down and remind him of his place
  • Davos, of course, thinks of King Stannis as his god in ACOK. His perspective will change somewhat in ASOS, but for now, he lowers his head and listens
  • What I noticed most of all reading back this conversation is Davos’ confusion at what is happening, why he is being called into the tent. Stannis asks him for what he thinks, Davos suggests that they should sail right now and take King’s Landing by sea. At the mention of Saan though, Stannis blows up. And he previously demonstrated with his rattling off the plans of his lords that he already knows what Davos will say and disagrees
  • There’s a well known idea that the person you’re going to ask for advice about something tells you a lot about what you already want to do. He’s asking Davos to talk him out of what he sees as his duty. Say your dumb idea I already think is dumb. Talk to me about Renly, convince me to not kill Cortnay, remind me that I shouldn’t continue feeding my soul and my kin to Melisandre’s red god. 
  • He grows angry with Davos because Davos has not caught on to what he really wants to talk about. It’s not the logistics of how to pry Cortnay Penrose and Edric Storm out of a castle, nor how dumb and craven his lords are. It’s the cost of what he is doing, the doubts Stannis is feeling over Melisandre. And the lingering idea that manifests later that Davos plays on that increasingly it looks like Mel is the powerful one. She can see the future, she can make Lightbringer, is Stannis in control anymore or is she? Which queen do the Queen’s men serve? Whose sigil is Stannis wearing? 
  • This is as close as Stannis can get to actually talking about his feelings, expressing the storm of emotions in his head. He can’t come out and say is he doing the right thing, but he can have Davos ask the questions for him. This is therapy. 
  • But he’s locked in, he’s plot committed. He’s killed his brother, he’s declared himself king, and more importantly Mel has demonstrated her power by predicting that by going to Storm’s End Stannis would acquire almost all of Renly’s troops AND Renly died. Davos is useful but not literally magic. How can he ignore her advice now even as Davos pokes holes in the logic of how she predicted it. She is Stannis’ version of Aegon’s dragons and you’d have to be a moron to not use that power right? 
• The prophetic logistics
  • And so the conversation shifts from the political dilemma in which Team Stannis has embroiled itself to the magical solution. George has set up the Gordian Knot, and now Stannis has to bring out Alexander’s sword to cut through it
  • For Stannis, that sword is both Davos and Melisandre, forged together into one. Davos says that he belongs to Stannis, that he will be that weapon
  • Stannis has found one use for his turncloak lords: despite their useless predictable plans, they have intelligence that will help him take the castle
  • The Fossoways have informed him that Cortnay Penrose’s second in command, young Lord Meadows, is their cousin, and they know him to be a green boy
  • If he were to suddenly find himself in command of the Storm’s End garrison Renly left behind, he would promptly surrender the castle to Stannis
  • The Fossoways, of course, probably told Stannis this with the assumption that he would then offer one of them the chance to make this happen via single combat
  • But Stannis has another plan in mind. Davos tries once more to get Stannis to see himself in the defenders of Storm’s End, to foster empathy in his king:
    • "I remember another stripling who was given command of Storm's End. He could not have been much more than twenty."
  • See, Your Grace? Cortnay is stubborn--just like you! Lord Meadows is a young man suddenly given a castle to hold--just like you! Can you not realize that you are setting your own heart on fire by making such ruthless use of these men?
  • But Stannis rejects this empathy. Deep down, he’s not OK with what he’s doing, so he has to keep these men at arm’s length emotionally to carry through with it
  • Lord Meadows is not “stonehead stubborn” like me. That almost sounds like a self-critique on Stannis’ part there...but as I’ve been saying, it doesn’t stick
  • Notice that his throwaway line here isn’t ideological. There’s no: I did it for Robert, Aerys was a monster, the king can’t just murder one of his lords paramount; it’s rude.
  • He keeps faith. We’re getting the precursor to the great discussion Stannis and Davos have over why Stannis foreswore his oath to Aerys in favor of Robert.
  • Stannis can’t really articulate a reason for the hard choosing he makes between the crown and his brother -- though the S02 extra material would have it be that Stannis valued the older laws of blood over those of royalty.
  • But there’s also that Stannis protected toddler Renly from Aerys’ bannermen besieging Storm’s End.
  • So, he was stonehead stubborn in Robert’s Baratheon. Stannis kept faith to a person, to Robert and protected a family member in Renly.
  • Cortnay isn’t invested in Renly’s “best suited should rule” philosophy as far as we can tell. He keeps faith to a dead usurper, because of honor’s sake and because he’s protecting a family member of Stannis’: Edric.
  • ASOIAF History: it’s like poetry. It rhymes. So dense. 
  • One thing I picked up was how that Davos’ support of Cortnay Penrose comes down to the idea that he keeps faith, that he believes in a cause and sticks with it. However this can also be applied to Stannis. Since Davos has known him, he’s drastically changing his beliefs, his ambitions, even who he is elevating in his council. Allowing Cressen to die for Melisandre must stick out in Davos’ mind as questioning who is this fiery hearted Stag that sits before him saying he should assassinate Penrose to get his hands on his nephew. Kinslaying? A foreign religion? Dark magic and burning? 
  • What faith is Stannis holding anymore? For Davos, Stannis is going down a path that Davos is very uncomfortable following, and were the dangling lordship and the protection from his past life Stannis provides is not part of the equation our smuggler may seriously consider jumping for Salador Saan. There’s quite a lot of misdirection and points applying beyond the actual characters being talked about. This discussion of Penrose is Davos expressing his uncertainty about where their campaign is going, what it is forcing them to accept that they never would have dared before. Stannis hated Robert, yet he was never going to raise a banner against him. He detested that Renly held the castle he coveted, but he wasn’t sending assassins in the night to kill his younger brother. This war of five kings and the stakes that Melisandre has piled on is morphing Stannis into someone that Davos is struggling to recognize, that is only resurfacing from the zealotry in brief moments for air before descending again into the nightfires. 
  • Davos then gets to the point: regardless of the personal qualities of Lord Meadows, Ser Cortnay does not seem likely to die on his own, and you have already rejected single combat, Your Grace. So what are you talking about?
  • Well...no one saw Renly’s death coming either, did they? We are in the age of wonder and terror now, Davos, and your expectations must change
    • “The night is dark and full of terrors, Davos.”
  • This is the first and only time we hear Stannis say the guiding mantra of the faith of R’hllor. Afterwards, we see the queen’s men chanting it en masse in both Dragonstone and the North, but Stannis keeps his jaws clenched shut
  • Here, though, he says it out loud. It is a skin-crawling indication of how Melisandre has begun convincing him of the reality of her god, and it makes the hairs on the back of Davos’ neck stand up. As he said: something is wrong here.
  • What is wrong here? Well, “the night is dark and full of terrors” refers on the surface to the Others. They come in the long night. They and their zombie army are the terrors haunting the darkness. Melisandre has come to defeat them
  • But the Others aren’t here at Storm’s End. They’re almost certainly never going to get this far. They are not the terrors who have come hunting in the dark
  • Melisandre is. Stannis is. The shadowy assassins they produce together--those are the terrors filling up the dark night. They have become their own enemy
  • Stannis himself is admitting it! He’s saying that like Renly, Cortnay will die out of nowhere, because the night is dark and full of terrors. Again, on the surface, he’s just talking about how there are no guarantees in life except death
  • But underneath, he’s not talking about how winter comes for the summer knights in a broad circle-of-life sense. He’s talking about a specific decision he has made
  • At an instinctive level, those hairs on the back of his neck, Davos understands what that decision is. But out loud, he says he does not understand, because he is desperate to be wrong. He wants Stannis to offer another explanation
  • Stannis says that he does not require Davos’ understanding, only his service. This, to me, is a damning statement on Stannis’ part, undercutting his cause
  • He has stopped talking to Davos like a person, as he was earlier, an individual in whose insights and worldview Stannis seemed to taking a genuine interest
  • Nope, Davos is back to being a cog in the machine, a part of the social structure upon which Stannis sits, defined by his utility to the protagonist of reality
  • Earlier, Stannis was cutting past the strict hierarchy of power to lay himself out before a smuggler from the slums, hearing his advice, accepting his reproach
  • But now that Davos’ advice and reproach have taken forms inconvenient for Stannis, touching on the raw nerves Cortnay Penrose so effectively exposed...well, now Stannis wants Davos to shut up and bend the knee
  • I don’t require your understanding. I don’t require your consent. I don’t require you to approve of what you’re doing or even know what you’re doing. I will thoroughly alienate you from your labor, make you an accessory to murder without even being honest with you about what I’m asking of you
  • Remember the oath that Catelyn and Brienne swore to each other? Catelyn swore that in exchange for Brienne’s fearless devoted service, she would never ask anything of Brienne that would bring her dishonor
  • Stannis has failed to uphold his end of the bargain. He is asking of Davos service that would bring Davos dishonor. This is because Stannis has abandoned the concept of reciprocal duty, of the idea that he owes the people of Westeros every bit as much as they owe them. He’s only thinking of duty running in his direction
  • There’s a bit of paralleling at work with our discussion last week about whether Stannis ordered Renly’s death or not.
  • Given how we both came down to any order being unspoken, we still have to consider how Melisandre kept telling Stannis that Renly will die in the flames.
  • Did Melisandre not require Stannis’ understanding, just his service?
  • Now, I tend to favor Stannis as a somewhat unwitting co-conspirator to Renly’s tragic, who-did-it, mysterious death.
  • And in this scenario, Davos is similar to Stannis. He’s being asked to participate in a venture which he knows will result in Cortnay’s death without being told the particulars.
  • Davos himself will force Stannis to change his mindset (temporarily, at least) come ASOS. But this is ACOK, in which Davos still thinks of Stannis as not only his king but his god, and so he cannot yet articulate this argument
  • And Stannis is acting like Davos’ god, rather than his king. I have access to divine vision, and that divine vision says Cortnay is dead meat, full stop
    • “Ser Cortnay will be dead within the day. Melisandre has seen it in the flames of the future. His death and the manner of it. He will not die in knightly combat, needless to say.”
  • So much for iron truths and saying what he means! Stannis can’t even acknowledge the order he’s giving Davos. He speaks in euphemisms
  • What will actually happen to Cortnay is that a shadow with Stannis’ face will fling him to his death. Melisandre has seen it in the flames, and the flames do not lie
  • Stannis has come to believe in this source of sorcerous power because it came true with Renly. On Dragonstone, as with Davos at Storm’s End, there were those encouraging Stannis to strike for the Iron Throne itself, but Melisandre told him that if he came to Storm’s End, he’d get a big army first. She was right!
  • As Davos immediately points out, however, Stannis is taking a curiously passive role in all this, as he was regarding the murder of Renly itself
  • Melisandre did not simply describe something that was inevitably going to happen thanks to fate. Her describing it actively helped bring it about.
  • If Mel had never shared her vision with Selyse and Stannis, it could not have come true, because Selyse and Stannis needed to take specific actions in order for it to come true. Prophecy and sorcery are not simply external phenomena
  • One note, this is how George is telling us Melisandre got her way into Stannis’ court: Selyse. Using Stannis’ wife as a way to prove her worth and value. 
  • The clash of magic and real life. 
  • They are deeply, inextricably intertwined with the human soul, with the battleground between good and evil slicing through every single heart
  • They are caught up in the decisions we make. Just as the meaning of Catelyn’s gods have changed as she has changed, so Melisandre’s visions in the flames do not carry power on their own. They are shadows on walls, given meaning by their audience, and only have weight if Stannis agrees they have weight
  • Without Stannis’ interference, Renly would’ve just kept on marching to King’s Landing. Stannis doesn’t want to hear that! Was, would have...these are just words, and words are wind. What matters is what happened
  • He’s not exactly wrong about that, but Stannis is ignoring his own role in bringing about what happened. You can tell how hard he’s working to compartmentalize all this, because he again brings up the peaches. That’s how much it hurt!
  • In order to dodge his own culpability, in order to make it seem like he made the best possible choice here, Stannis brings up another vision of Melisandre’s
  • In this vision, Renly smashes Stannis’ host against the walls of King’s Landing. It would appear that Melisandre used this vision to caution Stannis against mercy
  • If you sail to King’s Landing as your bannermen urge, your Grace, Renly will meet you there regardless, and it will be your doom, not his. Better this way.
  • But Davos again protests that it just doesn’t work this way. Nothing works this way. Leadership, morality, the flow of time itself...none of it makes sense to him
  • Stannis and Renly would still have choices to make. They could’ve joined their strength to bring down the Lannisters. That, Davos implies (without spelling it out because he’s afraid to piss off Stannis further), would’ve been the best outcome
  • Once again, we see that the core of the Stannis-Davos dynamic is that while they share a bond forged in their backstory, their worldviews are very different
  • Stannis comes back to the iron constants: here is what was, here is what is, here is what will be. I require not your understanding or vexing arguments
  • Davos comes back to the exceptions, the subtleties, the possibilities. Here is what could’ve been. Here are complications outside your reductive statements
  • Davos points out that if Melisandre saw two different irreconcilable futures in her flames, than individual choice, free will, chance and complication, are preserved
  • Stannis chose which outcome he wanted to bring about, and must bear responsibility for that outcome, as he must do again RE Cortnay Penrose’s fate
  • Stannis shoots back with some religious sophistry that exemplifies how George both establishes an interesting philosophical foundation to Melisandre’s faith while also exposing how that foundation is riddled with bullshit and nonsense
    • “Some lights cast more than one shadow. Stand before the nightfire and you'll see for yourself. The flames shift and dance, never still. The shadows grow tall and short, and every man casts a dozen. Some are fainter than others, that's all. Well, men cast their shadows across the future as well. One shadow or many. Melisandre sees them all.”
  • As Mel herself admits, telling the future is more art than science. She can get things wrong. She can misread R’hllor’s message, assuming that things that may be must be. But like Stannis, this self-awareness does not temper her certainty
  • Instead, she interprets it as the many-faceted, many faced nature of God. Flames are never still, and so cast many shadows. People work the same way
  • But isn’t this just a fancy way of admitting that Davos is right? If people cast many shadows among the future, then we have the ability to choose among them. What separates one potential future from another? Our choices.
  • If we, like flames, are never still, if we are defined not by constancy but by change, if the heart of life and light is transformation rather than apotheosis, doesn’t that imply that Stannis and Mel are wrong about...well, everything??
  • As is so often the case in the real world: the half-hidden nature of the divine, the way in which god gives us questions but no answers, only encourages Stannis and Mel’s need to make up their own answers, rather than accept the mystery
  • In doing so, they wash their own hands of blood, insisting they are simply carrying out the inevitable unchanging divine word of the Lord of Light itself
  • Stannis, as usual, recognizes at some level that his arguments fall apart upon the slightest scrutiny. He is a smart enough person to know that he is actively shaping his own destiny, the Uncertainty Principle guaranteeing that just by seeing the future, he and Melisandre are inevitably changing it
  • This same idea comes up in ADWD Melisandre I when we see how truly alike Davos and Mel are in one way: knowing that they cannot tell their patrons the truth. Just as Mel tells Jon that yes for absolutely sure the girl on the horse is Arya, internally she expresses doubt and doesn’t really know who she saw. Her visions of the flames aren’t just uncertain, they’re edited for her audience.
  • Stannis knows there’s something afoul with Mel’s logic and explanations that Davos is expertly poking holes in, and resonates with Stannis. So he has asked these 
  • So he shifts from parroting Melisandre’s arguments to acknowledging that they aren’t exactly proving universally convincing in his more secular coalition
  • He knows that Davos doesn’t like Melisandre’s presence, her growing influence within that coalition. This is pretty much the one thing Davos has in common with the turncloak lords that are swarming around Stannis like flies to a corpse
  • Stannis recounts the arguments that these lords make against Melisandre. Some are arguments I agree with: that the flaming heart banner is a political loser and Stannis should go back to the crowned stag. Some arguments I don’t agree with: that she has no place at his side specifically because she’s a woman
  • One gets the sense that Guyard Morrigen had the latter argument in mind because he’d already made it to Renly about Brienne! What an asshole
  • But what all these arguments have in common is that Stannis doesn’t care about any of them. Let his lords whisper. He cares not for their understanding, only for their service. They can talk themselves to death, but Melisandre? She serves.
  • Davos asks Stannis how Melisandre serves. He dreads the answer, but he’s the only one whose relationship with Stannis even allows him to ask it
  • Stannis once more falls back on euphemisms, on half-truths, in direct defiance of his reputation as someone who wants the whole truth, so help me god
  • She serves “as needed.” Which does not remotely answer Davos’ question, but on another level, it does. She serves me, which is all you need to know. Your understanding is not required. Only your service. I am your god. Kneel.
  • What about you, Stannis asks Davos. How do you serve? And Davos must admit that for all he doesn’t like Melisandre, he too will do whatever Stannis needs
  • Stannis tries to shape his command into a form Davos will accept. I need you to do nothing you have not done before. I need you to be a smuggler again: land a boat beneath the castle, unseen, in the dark of night. You can do that, can’t you?
  • ...so wait a minute, Stannis. Didn’t you just say that Davos deserved to lose his fingers because he was a smuggler, the opposite of being a hero?
  • But now, when his smuggling skills are useful to you, suddenly they are a resource to be drawn upon? Just, y’know, something Davos has done before?
  • The hypocrisy of this! Once more, we see that Stannis’ model of iron justice, whatever you may think of it, exists only in the abstract. When he tries to act upon it, he immediately becomes ensnared by the corrupt nature of power
  • When it is convenient for him to bring Davos back down the ladder, taking away Black Betha and forcing him to sail like a smuggler again, he will do so
  • Davos wants to protest. Not only is he not a smuggler any more, but he has never been an assassin. Stannis is making a worse man of him, not better
  • And yet, the protest does not come. Because as I said last week, the hypocrisy of Stannis’ justice ultimately matters less to Davos than how Stannis has specifically raised up Davos and his family, given them new opportunities
  • If Davos does not prove himself useful to Stannis, if he does not serve as needed like Melisandre does, he and more importantly his sons lose everything
  • This is how power operates. Once you have it, everything you do is filtered through your incentive to hold onto it. Your moral compass goes awry
  • Davos can only think to himself, as Cressen did, that Melisandre must have done something to Stannis. And just like Cressen, he is not quite correct about this
  • Clearly, Melisandre has had a huge impact on how Stannis thinks and what Stannis does. Yet she has not altered the very nature of the man to do so
  • Rather, she has built upon what was already there, taking advantage of his pre-existing personality and worldview to pull him in her direction
  • It is easier for Davos to think of Stannis as a helpless puppet, a good man turned bad by the external influence of a wicked witch, rather than acknowledge the truth: Stannis is still in charge, and this is what Stannis being in charge looks like
  • The man who raised up Davos is also the man who cut off his fingers, and the man who said “my Onion Knight gives me the truth” is the same man ignoring that truth now. We are vast and contradictory; like flames, we are never still
  • In this way, even as George frames Davos as a more admirable and honorable man than those around him, he still exposes flaws in Davos’ mindset
  • Davos himself is making an exception to his own argument that people are onions, with layers, and that nothing is as simple as it appears
  • He wants to think of the Stannis-Melisandre relationship as being as simple as it appears. She changed him. She ensorceled him. This is all her fault; she is Bad
  • So in order to cast the mote out of his own eye, Davos must reconcile his simplistic image of his king with the complexity he otherwise believes in. In other words, he must stop thinking of King Stannis as his god. He is merely a man.
  • That character growth, however, will wait for ASOS. Here in ACOK, Davos is left grasping for an answer, a better way, something to reconcile these contradictions
  • He tells himself that he should remain quiet, but Stannis wants him to speak up, and so Davos once more puts himself at risk, trying to do the right thing
  • He accepts Stannis’ need to declare victory at Storm’s End, but begs that they find another way, a cleaner way, so Davos (unlike Stannis) can sleep easy
  • Let Cortnay keep Edric Storm! But no, Stannis must have the boy, because the flames say so, and Stannis has an interest in declaring those visions inevitable
  • And to circle back: why does Stannis need Edric now? 
  • Couldn’t he have taken King’s Landing and then circled back to Storm’s End to pick up Edric?
  • Moreover, as will happen between now and Davos III, Stannis sends Edric Storm back to Dragonstone with Alester Florent.
  • So, the boy wasn’t needed for the taking of King’s Landing.
  • So, what’s the need for speed in this instance to take Edric into captivity? 
  • Then Davos points out that Cortnay Penrose cannot possibly think to win the single combat he proposed. He is ready to die. Happy to die, even. But he wants to die in such a way that doesn’t dishonor his life. He knows the castle will fall, that Edric will be taken; he just doesn’t want to be responsible for it
  • And this--this--is what finally gets under Stannis’ skin. This is what finally triggers empathy, forcing him to recognize Cortnay’s face in the mirror
  • Stannis, too, wants to figure a way out of this that doesn’t cost him his honor. He, too, wants to still be able to tell himself he’s the good guy in all of this
  • But he can’t, and he knows it. He cannot go forward with honor, and he cannot bring himself to turn back. He is in a self-created hell, alone in the darkness
  • This is the last we see of Stannis Baratheon in ACOK. Unlike in the show, we don’t see him at the Battle of Blackwater nor the immediate aftermath
  • Indeed, he doesn’t show up again on the page until we’re halfway through ASOS! For 60+ chapters, this is the image we are left with of the One True King
  • That image is of doubt. A shadow of a doubt crossing Stannis’ face, like his shadow shifting across the walls of Renly’s tent. Are we the baddies?
  • But George describes this doubt as a “passing cloud.” It doesn’t sink in. It doesn’t take hold. Stannis only glances in the mirror, and then decisively looks away
  • The same agonizing give-and-take is at work in ASOS. Stannis burns the leeches representing Joffrey and Balon Greyjoy without hesitation, but noticeably hesitates with the leech representing Robb...before burning it anyway
  • Stannis is just self-aware enough, just decent enough, to recognize the injustice of his actions. But he lacks the empathy and imagination to be any other way
  • Once more, we see Stannis as the hero and the villain sharing the same skin, constantly wrestling with one another for control. Such is the human condition
  • Stannis papers over this sudden dreadful self-awareness with his usual fig leaves: appeals to the inevitability of fate and the treachery of his fellow man
  • Davos briefly encouraged empathy for Cortnay within Stannis’ shriveled heart, so Stannis stamps that out with a will, insisting Cortnay planned some treachery and so cannot be trusted, cannot be honored or respected, cannot be given mercy
  • This is not my choice. This is fate. The flames do not lie. But as Davos thinks, they require the assistance of flawed struggling mortals to make them real
  • And this makes Davos so sad, because he knows (unlike Stannis) that they will not be able to dodge culpability for this. They will not be able to externalize it all onto god. The blood is on their hands, and their hands will never be clean
  • Sadness is such a wonderful emotion to leave Stannis and Davos as this will be their final on-page conversation between Stannis and Davos until ASOS, Davos IV.

Foreshadowing/Groundwork

Stannis will indeed make Davos a lord in ASOS. Thankfully, there will be more to it than just pissing off the noble-born.

Loras has indeed taken command of that host of infantry Renly left behind at Bitterbridge, and that will be Stannis’ doom at the Battle of Blackwater.

In a So Spake Martin entry from 2000, GRRM commented on Stannis’ lost knights who went to treat with the Tyrells at Bitterbridge saying: Crane and Florent are presently captives at Highgarden, by the way.

Fight over Edric

Theory/Discussion

How would one actually get inside Storm’s End? Not merely beneath the walls, but capture the castle? Matt, take us away!

GRRM has given us a mystery here in Davos’ chapters, one set up by lore POV’s and information. Storm’s End cannot fall, it has never fallen. Among Bran the Builder’s creations even Oldtown has been sacked, Winterfell taken by the Boltons, the Wall breached or avoided. But not Storm’s End, which creates a narrative tension because every time in fiction something is said to be impossible, it will almost certainly happen. Chekov’s castle walls to say another way. George solves this problem once with Cortnay Penrose by having Stannis not attack the walls but instead the men inside and making them open the gates. Orys Baratheon likewise never took Storm’s End by force, instead Argilac Durrandon opened the gates to come out and fight like the super tough guy he is. Then promptly lost. Like all things in George’s world, all that has happened before will happen again. 

And it is happening again in the Winds of Winter. As I said in my video, How Young Griff Will Take Storm’s Ned, Jon Connington has found himself in the shoes of the two Baratheons Orys and Stannis. The Golden Company has a desperate need to take Storm’s End quickly from the skeleton crew holding it, and Connington’s POV tells us that he means to take it by guile. IN TWOW it’s confirmed by Haldon Half-Maester that his gambit worked, and YG now controls the castle. Once again George is posing this question back to us as readers. How exactly should you go about taking the castle no one can take? 

In my video, I drew connections between this exact chapter and said that George is planning to introduce many of the same players back for another unique solution to the same problem. Instead of Edric Storm being on the outside, the person that the gates are shut for, this time he will serve as the key to opening them. The garrison, the aforementioned Elwood Meadows, even Edric is in play with a surprise return from Lys. Of course much of this is based off the work Jefferson did with his blood of the conqueror series on wars and politics of ice and fire. That’s what I think will happen, a surprise return of Edric Storm like Viserys Targaryen in Fire and Blood. What say you kind sers?

Conclusion

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• Join us next week for Part 4 of ACOK Davos II, in which Melisandre gives birth to a beautiful baby boy. Mazel tov!