Episode 130: A CLASH OF KINGS, TYRION XI: "The Art of War" SHOW NOTES! (Patreon)

Hello and welcome to the Not A Cast … podcast: the one true chapter-by-chapter podcast going through A Song of Ice and Fire one chapter a week. I’m one of your hosts Jeff better known as BryndenBFish. 

And I’m your other host Emmett, better known as PoorQuentyn.          

Welcome to the one hundred and twenty-ninth episode of the Not A Cast, titled: “The Art of War: An Analysis of ACOK, Tyrion XI,” in which Tyrion has to work 28 hours a day, 9 days a week just to get ready for the arrival of Stannis Baratheon. 

This episode is brought to you by our NotASmallCouncil: 

• Hand of the King WolfmanZack 
• Grandmaester Timbob, troubleshooter of systems and designer of circuit boards
• Lord Commander of the Kingsguard Mark N. 
• Lord Travis, Master of Ships and Warden of the Waves, Captain of the war galley NIGHT WOLF, the ship that stalks the Seven Seas, and Wielder of the Valyrian Steel trident SUMMONER, the blade that brings the Deep Ones
• Ser Keith J, Master of Whisperers
• Lord Philip the Merciful, Master of Laws
• Archmaester June, Healer of the Lesser Poxes
• Ragged Michael, Warden of the North
• Nelson the Hammer, Prince of Dragonstone
• Scarlett the Other Red Woman and Mistress of Whisperers
• Lord Micah, the Quilled Lion, Warden of the West, Herald of the Golden Tooth, Master of the Banefort and the Kraken’s Bane
• Lord James: the Jim that was Promised
• The High Bearded Priest
• Lord Jake, Assistant (to the) Hand of the King
• Lady Xena Valyrian
• Ser Jack, Lord of Ser Arthur Dayne and Prince Rhaegar Targaryen's Sad Prophecy Boys Club
• His Grace’s High Inquisitor Frank
• Ser Jasper the Cruel, the King’s Justice
• Laurence, Prince of Dorne
• Kelly, Warden of the East and Mistress of (Old) Bay of Crabs
• Steven the Steadfast, Master of Hounds
• The Blue Winter Rose Knight of Highgarden
• Lady Stephanie
• Lord Anonymous
• Lord Carlos
• Lord Andrew the Restless, a Priest of the Drowned God
• The King's Cook, Nolly (No-lee) Olly (Oh-lee), Master of Cannoli
• Ser Sourcedelica 
• Low Energy Dent, True Master of the Banefort and True Master of Coin 
• Lord Penchant for Nostalgia
• Queer Alex, Rainbow Commander of the They-des and Gentle-thems (ladies and gentlemen)
• Haldivar, The Waiter for TWOW
• A-a-ron Damphair Prophet of the Forsaken and High Priest of Euron Crows Eye
• Lieutenant Glenn Lord of H town
• Vanerys of the House Colgaryen, the First of Her Name, Princess of Dragonstone, Mistress of Art, The Overworked, Queen of the Pencils, the Eraser and the First Draft, Queen of Monochrome, Devotee of the Great GOT, Portraitist of the Realm, Lady Realist of the Seven Kingdoms, Blender of Paints and Maker of Drawings
• Lord Adam T
• Lady Alexandra of Tarth
• Ser Kristoph Logas, Bloody Scorpion of the Red Field, Defender of the Letter of Kin, and the Wolverine of house Qorgyle
• Lady Elizabeth, Mistress of Horse (Faced Lesbians)
• Ser Josh Snow Bastard Bounty Hunter of the North
• Ser Veyor, Chief of Parties in the Frozen Wastes
• Lord Peter
• Lady Ashley
• The Dead Sheppard Reborn, Preacher of the Poor Fellows
• Marshall Harrison—Absent, shipwrecked in the Jade Sea
• Grave-Robb Stark, the Cadaver King and Horror of Harrenhal
• Olaf, proponent of establishing a feudal, pseudodemocratic system of Great Councils, wherein every count votes
• Ser Tim: The Knight Who Was Guided By Voices
• Lord Nick
• Thucydides, Lord of Plagues
• Ser Jack, Lord of Ser Arthur Dayne and Prince Rhaegar Targaryen’s Sad Prophecy Boys Club
• Lord Gene the Splendid, Master of Coin, Warden of Tampa Bay who believes that the sudden vacation plans made by certain witnesses clears him of all charges  
• Lady Anna, The Lovely Castellan
• Pat Yronwood, the bloodroyal and guardian of the Boneway
• Lord Charles Tyrell of Highgarden, Lord Paramount of the Mander, Defender of the Marches, High Marshal of the Reach, Warden of the South, and The Heir of House Tyrell
• Luke, Lord of Lone Leaf & The Pillar of Autumn
• Squid Pro Quo
• Master of Zorse
• Joe Snow “King of the Metro North and protector of the Tri-State”
• Hedrigal, Captain of the Airship Arrogance
• Squire Matt S, future Ser Matt S, the one who will bring balance to the Kingdoms
• BWord, Queen Beyond the Wall

Spoiler warning: All published books, 5 novels, 3 Dunk and Egg novellas, histories, interviews, TWOW sample chapters, as well as Game of Thrones the TV show. Anything and everything!

Question

Our question this week comes from BWord our NotASmallCouncil Queen Beyond the Wall who asks:

Hey guys I have a Tyrion related question for you. Will we meet Tysha (or have we already), and if so will she cross Tyrion’s path again? How do you expect they would react to seeing each other again? 

So, thank you Lady BWord for the question. If you’d like to ask us questions we’ll answer here on the NotACast pod-cast, you are welcome to become a Sworn Sword or higher level patron over at patreon.com/NotACastASOIAF where you can find show notes, merch, Fevre Dream episodes and 34 bonus episodes - like our just-released final part of “The Second Coming”: our five-part analysis of TWOW, The Forsaken!

Yes indeed! If you’re listening on release day, that episode is out for all Poor Fellow and above patrons over at patreon.com/NotACastASOIAF. If you aren’t a patron, please consider becoming one!

But enough about patreon. When we last checked in with Tyrion, he had survived the riot in King’s Landing, found out about Varys’ innocuous backstory and very humorously called himself a monster but was still going to defend King’s Landing from … the King. Stannis. He’s the king. Let’s find out how Tyrion props up Joffrey’s reign and sabotages the return of the king in this synopsis of ACOK, Tyrion XI! 

Synopsis

“If you die stupidly, I'm going to feed your body to the goats," Tyrion threatened as the first load of Stone Crows pushed off from the quay.

Shagga laughed. "The Halfman has no goats."

"I'll get some just for you."

Threats to feed friends’ bodies to goats. Boys will be boys. Welcome to “The Boys” chapter in ACOK. 

Dawn is breaking over the boys as Shagga and the last of his men board the ferry. Tyrion had already sent the Burned Men, Black Ears and Moon Brothers into the kingswood forest, and now he was sending the Stone Crows into the forest in the days prior. Tyrion tells Shagga that he’s not to fight battles, just conduct hit and run raids, attack baggage trains and kills stragglers. Also, string their dead up in trees. Always attack at night, because then ...

Shagga laid a hand atop Tyrion's head. "All this I learned from Dolf son of Holger before my beard had grown. This is the way of war in the Mountains of the Moon."

"The kingswood is not the Mountains of the Moon, and you won't be fighting Milk Snakes and Painted Dogs. And listen to the guides I'm sending, they know this wood as well as you know your mountains. Heed their counsel and they'll serve you well."

Shagga says he’ll listen to Tyrion’s morons. He promises this very solemnly which I love. And then he leads his horse onto the ferry. Tyrion watches them go, feeling weird, knowing that he was giving up some of his best personal defenders.

Of course, Tyrion still had Bronn’s brave companions. Er, the sellswords that he’s purchased. Their leaders had been bought with gold, promises of lands and knighthoods after the battle was won.

They'd drunk his wine, laughed at his jests, and called each other ser until they were all staggering . . . all but Bronn himself, who'd only smiled that insolent dark smile of his and afterward said, "They'll kill for that knighthood, but don't ever think they'll die for it."

Tyrion had no such delusion.

In other similarly good news for Tyrion, the gold cloaks were little better. Sure, there were 6000 of them, more than the sellswords that Tyrion has. Jacelyn warns Tyrion that there’s a few traitors in the mix, but the bigger problem is that most of the new recruits are green with no watch or battle experience. They might fight hard at first, but when the first man breaks and the battle goes bad, they’re going to run. Even the more veteran city watchmen (2000 or so, hired under Robert, not Cersei) were only watchmen, not soldiers.

A watchman was not truly a soldier, Lord Tywin Lannister had been fond of saying. Of knights and squires and men-at-arms, Tyrion had no more than three hundred. Soon enough, he must test the truth of another of his father's sayings: One man on a wall was worth ten beneath it.

Tyrion joins Bronn after seeing Shagga off by the docs amidst merchants, fishers, sex workers and beggars. Those fortunate and rich enough to buy fish were haggling over all the recent catches. The rate of inflation was high as goods were scarce as seafood was the only food coming into the city. Chloe, I’m assuming, is the only one happy by this development.

The gold cloaks push people out of Tyrion’s way with the shaft of their spears, and these people curse Tyrion. You don’t say. Someone throws a rotten fish at Tyrion, and it explodes at his feet. Starving children fight over the pieces of stinking fish. Bang-up job, Team Lannister. Tyrion hears hammers ringing and thinks at least that’s going well. But Tyrion is unhappy with all the ramshackle houses built up against the exterior of the city walls. He thinks that needs to get gone or else Stannis wouldn’t even need ladders to climb into the city. 

He called Bronn to his side. "Assemble a hundred men and burn everything you see here between the water's edge and the city walls." He waved his stubby fingers, taking in all the waterfront squalor. "I want nothing left standing, do you understand?"

The black-haired sellsword turned his head, considering the task. "Them as own all this won't like that much."

"I never imagined they would. So be it; they'll have something else to curse the evil monkey demon for."

"Some may fight."

"See that they lose."

"What do we do with those that live here?"

"Let them have a reasonable time to remove their property, and then move them out. Try not to kill any of them, they're not the enemy. And no more rapes! Keep your men in line, damn it."

"They're sellswords, not septons," said Bronn. "Next you'll be telling me you want them sober."

"It couldn't hurt."

I just don’t understand why anyone thinks that the Lannisters are the bad guys here.

Tyrion wishes he could make the walls of King’s Landing twice as tall and three times as thick, but it probably wouldn’t matter. It didn’t matter for Storm’s end, Harrenhal or Winterfell after all. This leads Tyrion to think about Winterfell and how the castle made people feel safe even if it wasn’t as massive as Harrenhal or impregnable as Storm’s End. When Varys told Tyrion about the fall of the castle, it had been a shock to him, and Tyrion thought that the gods giveth the Starks Harrenhal and taketh away Winterfell.

No doubt he should be rejoicing. Robb Stark would have to turn north now. If he could not defend his own home and hearth, he was no sort of king at all. It meant reprieve for the west, for House Lannister, and yet . . .

Tyrion had only the vaguest memory of Theon Greyjoy from his time with the Starks. A callow youth, always smiling, skilled with a bow; it was hard to imagine him as Lord of Winterfell. The Lord of Winterfell would always be a Stark.

Tyrion remembers the Winterfell godswood, all the trees and the giant heart tree at the center of it. 

He could almost smell the place, earthy and brooding, the smell of centuries, and he remembered how dark the wood had been even by day. That wood was Winterfell. It was the north. I never felt so out of place as I did when I walked there, so much an unwelcome intruder. He wondered if the Greyjoys would feel it too. The castle might well be theirs, but never that godswood. Not in a year, or ten, or fifty.

Please check out our patreon episode with JoeBuckley for more about Winterfell!

Tyrion goes through the Mud Gate, trying, once again, to rationalize how Winterfell’s fall was a good thing. He passes by three trebuchets sitting in the market square, moving through the “human tide.” Beyond the trebuchets, there were fewer people, and Tyrion moves back to the Red Keep uneventfully. Unfortunately, at the Tower of the Hand, Tyrion encounters a dozen trader captains righteously upset about their vessels being impounded by the crown. He apologizes to them, saying they’ll be compensated at the end of the war, but it didn’t really satiate their anger:

"What if you should lose, my lord?" one Braavosi asked.

"Then apply to King Stannis for your compensation."

Alas.

When he’s finally able to disentangle himself from duties of the state, he hears bells ringing, and he waddles across the Red Keep yard, knowing he’s going to be late for the naming of two new Kingsguard members. He arrives just in time to see Joffrey putting on white cloaks on the two newest members of the Kingsguard while the High Septon leads the men in their vows to the Seven.

He approved of his sister's choice of Ser Balon Swann to take the place of the slain Preston Greenfield. The Swanns were Marcher lords, proud, powerful, and cautious. Pleading illness, Lord Gulian Swann had remained in his castle, taking no part in the war, but his eldest son had ridden with Renly and now Stannis, while Balon, the younger, served at King's Landing. If he'd had a third son, Tyrion suspected he'd be off with Robb Stark. It was not perhaps the most honorable course, but it showed good sense; whoever won the iron Throne, the Swanns intended to survive . In addition to being well born, young Ser Balon was valiant, courtly, and skilled at arms; good with a lance, better with a morningstar, superb with the bow. He would serve with honor and courage.

Alas, Tyrion could not say the same for Cersei's second choice. Ser Osmund Kettleblack looked formidable enough. He stood six feet and six inches, most of it sinew and muscle, and his hook nose, bushy eyebrows, and spade-shaped brown beard gave his face a fierce aspect, so long as he did not smile. Lowborn, no more than a hedge knight, Kettleblack was utterly dependent on Cersei for his advancement, which was doubtless why she'd picked him. "Ser Osmund is as loyal as he is brave," she'd told Joffrey when she put forward his name. It was true, unfortunately. The good Ser Osmund had been selling her secrets to Bronn since the day she'd hired him, but Tyrion could scarcely tell her that.

Tyrion thinks he shouldn’t complain too much. He’d have another spy near his sister. And he couldn’t possibly be a worse knight of the Kingsguard than Ser Boros Blount who was currently rotting in a dungeon at Rosby. Brave Ser Boros had courageously surrendered the moment Jacelyn Bywater and his gold cloaks showed up to take Tommen prisoner. Cersei wanted Boros stripped of his kingsguard cloak for being a coward and a traitor. She was replacing him with someone nearly as hollow as Boros.

Tyrion grows bored with all the praying, vowing and anointing. He sees Lady Tanda, noticing that her daughter is absent. He was hoping to see Shae, and while Varys was reporting that Shae was well, Tyrion wanted to vouch for that himself.

The last time Tyrion saw Shae, she was asking about whether she might bring some of the jewelry that Tyrion gave her. Tyrion didn’t want to disappoint her, but uh, no, she can’t go around wearing too much jewelry as it’ll raise suspicion. Okay, maybe a piece or three. But no more! Tyrion remembers Shae’s look of disappointment but wagers that he’s keeping her safe.

When the ceremony is finally complete, Joffrey marches out with Ser Balon and Ser Osmund between him. Tyrion sticks around to chat with his High Septon. Wait, his? Yeah, it was Tyrion’s choice. He informs the High Septon that he needs the gods on their side for the battle to come.

"Tell them that Stannis has vowed to burn the Great Sept of Baelor."

"Is it true, my lord?" asked the High Septon, a small, shrewd man with a wispy white beard and wizened face.

Tyrion shrugged. "It may be. Stannis burned the godswood at Storm's End as an offering to the Lord of Light. If he'd offend the old gods, why should he spare the new? Tell them that. Tell them that any man who thinks to give aid to the usurper betrays the gods as well as his rightful king."

The High Septon says sure, he’ll do that. Pray for the king too. Whatever you want, Tyrion. Really, why did the sparrow movement rise?

Next, Tyrion is onto a meeting with Hallyne the Pyromancer, but before he takes that meeting, he decides to read through letters that Maester Frenken left him. He finds an old letter from Doran Martell telling him that Storm’s End had fallen. But then he sees another letter:

Balon Greyjoy on Pyke, who styled himself King of the Isles and the North invited King Joffrey to send an envoy to the Iron Islands to fix the borders between their realms and discuss a possible alliance.

Tyrion read the letter three times and set it aside. Lord Balon's longships would have been a great help against the fleet sailing up from Storm's End, but they were thousands of leagues away on the wrong side of Westeros, and Tyrion was far from certain that he wanted to give away half the realm. Perhaps I should spill this one in Cersei's lap, or take it to the council.

Having finished doing nothing, Tyrion decides to admit Hallyne to find out how things fare with the alchemists and the wildfire. To Tyrion’s shock and suspicion, Hallyne reports that there’s a shit-ton of wildfire. 13K jars of the stuff. Tyrion warns the man that if he’s trying to play them false by filling the pots with sewage, that Tyrion’s not fucking paying them.

Hallyne starts squeaking that everything is correct. You see, they found three hundred more jars under the Dragonpit. There’s no reason to interrogate why those jars were there. Let’s move on to talk about the hilarious story about some drunk john who was cavorting with sex workers in the dragonpit, then this Einstein Wil-E Coyote’d his ass by falling through a hole and then this Aristotle decided to drink a jar of wildfire, thinking it was booze. It was not.

Tyrion says that there was a prince who drank wildfire, but since there were no dragons flying over the city, our Westerosi Alan Turing probably didn’t turn into a dragon either. Tyrion thinks that the Dragonpit had been abandoned for a century and a half and thinks yeah, maybe storing the wildfire there made sense, but why didn’t Lord Rossart tell anyone? Good question, Tyrion.

Regardless, those three hundred jars don’t account for all the new jars that the pyromancers are claiming. There are now several thousand new jars. Explain yourself, Hallyne. Flop Sweat Hallyne rubs his soaked brow with his sleeve and says that they’re working so hard. Oh, working hard? So, why weren’t you working hard before? They so, so were, Tyrion. You see, there’s these spells that are so delicate and hard to do. Tyrion cuts him off, knowing that Ser Jacelyn Bywater is here waiting

"Yes, you have secret spells; how splendid. What of them?"

"They, hmmm, seem to be working better than they were." Hallyne smiled weakly. "You don't suppose there are any dragons about, do you?"

"Not unless you found one under the Dragonpit. Why?"

"Oh, pardon, I was just remembering something old Wisdom Pollitor told me once, when I was an acolyte. I'd asked him why so many of our spells seemed, well, not as effectual as the scrolls would have us believe, and he said it was because magic had begun to go out of the world the day the last dragon died."

"Sorry to disappoint you, but I've seen no dragons. I have noticed the King's Justice lurking about, however. Should any of these fruits you're selling me turn out to be filled with anything but wildfire, you'll be seeing him as well."

Hallyne beats feet out of the chambers, nearly knocking Ser, no wait, LORD Jacelyn over. Tyrion asks the new-made lord how the defenses are and then asks how Tommen is doing, and Jacelyn reports that Tommen is well. He’s adopted a fawn, one that Joffrey couldn’t murder (like the last one). Tommen asks after Cersei once in a while and often begins letters to Myrcella but never finishes them. Aw. He doesn’t miss Joffrey at all though.

Tyrion asks if arrangements have been made if they lose the battle, and Jacelyn reports that yes, arrangements are made. And they are? Jacelyn says that Tyrion told him not to say anything to anyone. Tyrion smiles and thinks that if the city is taken, Tyrion might be taken prisoner, and it’d be better if Stannis didn’t know where Joffrey’s heir was.

After Jacelyn leaves, Varys arrives, and he has intelligence to share:

"Men are such faithless creatures," he said by way of greeting.

Tyrion sighed. "Who's the traitor today?"

The eunuch handed him a scroll. "So much villainy, it sings a sad song for our age. Did honor die with our fathers?"

Tyrion says that Tywin, his dad (maybe), isn’t dead yet, but he knows some of the names: rich dudes, traders, merchants, craftsmen. Why are they conspiring against the Lannisters? According to Varys, they think Stannis is going to win and want to share in his victory. They allegedly call themselves the Antler Men. Tyrion jokes that Stannis changed his sigil; so, they should call themselves the hot hearts. Hey, what a coincidence: my nu-metal cover band’s name!

But then Tyrion notices a name on Varys’ list:

Among the names on the list was the master armorer Salloreon. "I suppose this means I won't be getting that terrifying helm with the demon horns," Tyrion complained as he scrawled the order for the man's arrest.

And that is ACOK, Tyrion XI! I’m not saying I don’t miss the House of the Undying, but I’m glad to be back with Tyrion. What did you think of this chapter, ser?

Depth

What a breath of fresh air this chapter is after the last one! Don’t get me wrong, I love the House of the Undying, but after three episodes going through it, I’m ready for a chapter about politics, and Tyrion XI is happy to oblige. This chapter is overstuffed with moves and countermoves in the game of thrones. It’s all about Tyrion putting on a powerful face for Stannis while barely managing to keep his own house in order. There’s an exhilaration that matches all the wheels and deals in Tyrion’s early chapters in this book, but now with an extra layer of desperation: it’s all about to blow up. Literally. 

This is a fun chapter, and you can see how George structures his plotting. Before this chapter, we had some extremely important and sometimes magical shit happen for three straight chapters, and now we’re back to Tyrion who is conducting day-to-day operations in King’s Landing. It’s the same sort of structure that GRRM utilizes for the Red Wedding where we get Catelyn-Arya-Catelyn-Arya, bing-bang-boom-boom, and then wouldn’t you know it, but we’re back to a day in the life of Tyrion Lannister. Part of that structure is George giving his audience a breather so that our heart rates can get back to resting. The greater part of the execution, IMO, is that GRRM is showing that even as an age of wonder and terrors coils around the world, the mortgage has to be paid. The world will keep trucking along as usual.

• Tyrion’s house of cards
  • George starts the chapter out on an optimistic note. Tyrion and Shagga are bantering, the dawn is pleasant out on the river
  • But the specifics of what they’re here to do ground the situation in life-or-death urgency. Tyrion has sent all the clansmen into the kingswood
  • As Tyrion instructs Shagga on guerilla tactics, we the reader realize what’s happening: Stannis is on the march, and Tyrion wants to slow him down
  • Aw yeah, we’re at the edge of the Battle of the Blackwater, and that means that I begin to inflict all of you with my military shittery!
  • To get at the broad strokes here, what Tyrion is doing is attempting to prep the coming battlefield by wearing down the attackers before they even come up to the city.
  • The mountain clansmen aren’t going to defeat the large force that Stannis is bringing to the fight, but Tyrion’s isn’t planning for them to do that.
  • Instead, they’re following in the footsteps of their historical forebears as far and wide as the desert fighting employed by Arabs and seen dramatically in Lawrence of Arabia, Mao against the Chinese nationalists during the Chinese Civil War, the Viet Minh and Viet Cong against the French and Americans, the Mujahideen against the Soviets in Afghanistan and, of course, the Iraqi and Taliban insurgencies against the Americans.
  • Hit and run raids, killing scouts, attacks on weak points and baggage trains, night raids and inflicting terror by hanging dead Stannis loyalists from the trees: classic guerrilla stuff.
  • The point is not to win big battles here but rather to tire Stannis’ army and use terror in order to weaken Stannis’ resolve before he hits the wall of King’s Landing.
  • And what better place to do this than the Kingswood.
  • If you’ll recall from Davos II, Stannis has a mostly cavalry force based on the knights, lords, squires that raced with Renly from Bitterbridge to Storm’s End.
  • All those trees provide cover and concealment for the ambushes for Tyrion’s Mountain Clansmen. They can strike quickly from seemingly out of nowhere and then melt back into the woods.
  • Additionally, the terrain works against Stannis’ knights as counter-mobility as Stannis can’t mass his cavalry and pursue the attackers.
  • Does this work? It’s unclear whether the clansmen were able to do everything that Tyrion wants them to do.
  • Sansa will note in her next chapter that Stannis’ army is burning the woods in an attempt to deny the clansmen the use of the terrain for their raids. But also the clansmen were burning the woods too. Why the latter? I’m not exactly sure!
  • Moreover, Stannis’ army hits King’s Landing with a ferocity that doesn’t speak to a terrorized, exhausted army, and again, as I’ll emphasize to the point where you’ll be hating me saying it: Stannis actually wins the Battle of the Blackwater until he doesn’t.
  • However, in one key place, the clansmen succeed.
  • Tyrion specifically instructs Shagga to kill Stannis scouts, and boy is this ever going to have an impact on the Battle of the Blackwater as Stannis won’t have advance warning of Tywin and the Tyrells riding for him through the smoke and darkness until it’s too late.
  • Shagga says he’s familiar with these tactics--this is how they fought the knights of the Vale back in the Mountains of the Moon. But Tyrion points out that the environment has changed. Shagga will need Tyrion’s guides
  • And Shagga agrees, before setting out. Tyrion has managed to cross a cultural bridge, if only in a military context, and now they part
  • Tyrion suddenly feels lonely and afraid, powerless without physically stronger people to protect him. The optimism sours in the face of context
  • Even as Tyrion wields his power, part of him feels like he’s leaving himself vulnerable; this will culminate with Mandon Moore’s betrayal in battle
  • Throughout this chapter, we see that Tyrion feels threatened not only from the outside by Stannis, but from the inside by his family and the people
  • Without the clansmen, he has to rely on Bronn’s sellswords. He has near eight hundred of them now, and is buying the loyalty of the most promising ones with all the usual tools: gold, wine, and the promise of knighthood
  • It’s a significant force, and Tyrion’s tactics are smart. But they have limits, as Bronn tells him: the sellswords will kill for him, but they won’t die for him
  • That gets at the palpable tension in King’s Landing these days. No matter what the Lannisters do, they look like they’re on the brink of losing
  • That has ramifications beyond the purely logistical. Because power is a shadow on a wall, residing only where men believe it resides, the appearance of winning or losing creates its own momentum
  • These sellswords will only fight for Tyrion if he appears to be winning--even though them fighting for him is how he wins!
  • That’s the complication of politics, where you have to create the appearance of victory first in order to be able to achieve it
  • Jacelyn Bywater makes the same argument regarding the gold cloaks, Tyrion’s other major force in holding the city against Stannis
  • Cersei inflated the numbers of the Watch to make herself and her children feel safe, but ignored the actual substance of cohesion and discipline
  • The core of Robert’s City Watch is still there, but they’re outnumbered by cravens and traitors who will only fight hard at the beginning and if they’re winning. As with Bronn’s sellswords, losing will have its own momentum; Bywater tells Tyrion that the first to run will be followed by all the rest
  • And even the core of the Watch are guardsmen, not soldiers; as far as dedicated fighters go, Tyrion only has a few hundred. Grim state of affairs!
  • What Tyrion suspects will happen when things go pear-shaped against Stannis is what occurs to Cersei in AFFC.
  • When Cersei is arrested, all of her ostensible allies flee her. Taena goes back to Longtable, Aurane goes out to sea and Cersei’s small council is reorganized by Nuncle Kevan, Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly.
  • This is the ultimate problem with Lannister rule: it’s wide and grows wider by the end of ACOK, but it’s shallow.
  • The moment the first spear gets thrown down and someone runs, it spooks everyone, and they’re all getting out of dodge lest they be caught holding the bag.
  • Everyone knows the Lannisters think of them as disposable. As a result, the Lannisters are disposable to them
  • As Tyrion thinks through these challenges, he keeps falling back on Tywin’s sayings, Tywin’s advice, even though he loathes Tywin
  • Part of this is just familiarity. Tyrion knows Tywin’s style better than he knows anyone else’s; this is what he has to fall back on, as with Jaime
  • But the other part of this is that Tyrion still wants Tywin’s love and approval, which he’s been denied literally from birth forward
  • So Tyrion asks himself what Dad would have done in the belief that doing so will make Dad love him. But it doesn’t, and that wounds Tyrion deeply
  • We continue to build to the culmination of Tyrion and Tywin’s relationship where Tyrion declares that he is Tywin writ small.
  • Here, Tyrion is acting in Tywin’s stead as Hand of the King, and tries to puzzle out what Tywin would do, because Tywin is the uber-Lannister, and the patriarch of Westeros.
  • And there is logic in Tywin’s statement that having one man on the walls is worth ten beneath. Walls act as a force multiplier.
  • But as you were saying, the Lannisters are always falling back on Tywin for everything. 
  • There’s a certain cold logic in how Tywin plays at war and politics, and Tyrion attempts to adapt that.
  • But emulating Tywin doesn’t net long-term good outcomes for the Lannisters. We need only look at the city under Lannister rule to see some of that — the city that is presently very close to starvation: a starvation caused in part by Tywin’s warfighting in the Riverlands. 
• Life on the docks
  • This chapter parallels Tyrion IX, the riot chapter, in how it opens: Tyrion says farewell to someone leaving on a boat, and then makes his way through the docks. But things go differently this time, to say the least
  • The conditions haven’t changed. The people are starving; no food is coming in except fish, and the price for that is rising exponentially
  • Even those with coin can’t always afford to eat, and those without can only hope to beg or steal. It’s a harsh portrait of poverty made worse by war
  • Nor has the people’s anger evaporated. Tyrion hears curses as the gold cloaks force a path for him; someone throws a rotten fish at him
  • So what has changed? Political action is part material conditions and part collective emotion, but it’s also always a lightning-in-a-bottle situation
  • The specific combination of that parade, that dead baby, Joffrey being that awful--and potential agents by provocateurs like Varys, ofc! All of that makes what happened in Tyrion IX nigh-impossible to repeat in Tyrion XI
  • The anger of the people at what has been done to them will come to the forefront once more with the sparrow movement. I think George understands that all political sentiments experience ebbs and flows
  • What ensures the continuation of mass anger is the behavior and worldview of the powerful, including Tyrion, despite him generally being more thoughtful and compassionate than his sister and nephew
  • Tyrion looks at children with swollen bellies fighting over rotten fish and does not think “what a ghastly sight. I should feed them from my plate”
  • Instead, he looks at their homes and businesses, their warehouses and brothels and bait shacks, and decides that he must burn it all down
  • Now, Tyrion is not doing this for his own sadistic delight like his father Aerys. He has a sound logistical basis for his actions:
    • He was a deal less pleased by the clutter of ramshackle structures that had been allowed to grow up behind the quays, attaching themselves to the city walls like barnacles on the hull of a ship; bait shacks and pot-shops, warehouses, merchants' stalls, alehouses, the cribs where the cheaper sort of whores spread their legs. It has to go, every bit of it. As it was, Stannis would hardly need scaling ladders to storm the walls.
  • He has to do this to hold the city. He gives orders that no one be killed, that Bronn make an effort to prevent anyone from being raped, that they be allowed to hold onto whatever property they can carry
  • This is how Tyrion tells himself he’s the good guy, or at least, not the actual bad guy (that would be Joffrey, or Cersei, or Stannis)
  • But the original sin of the power structure itself infests everything Tyrion does and how he thinks about it, so practically, he winds up a villain
  • Tyrion does not make the slightest effort to relocate these people and their businesses. He does not indicate he will compensate them at all
  • When part of Flea Bottom burned during the riot in Tyrion IX, Tyrion hand-waved it away, saying that “most of Flea Bottom can burn.”
  • And now he wants another section of the city destroyed. At one level, we can see the logic: these buildings provide a way for Stannis’ army to easily get into King’s Landing, and if Stannis gets into the city, King’s Landing is lost and so is the Lannister cause.
  • But he doesn’t provide the smallfolk a place to stay -- like the Red Keep.
  • There was a time when the Lannisters allowed the smallfolk to stay in the Red Keep though. In Season 8 of the Thrones Show, Cersei brought the smallfolk into the Red Keep there, but it wasn’t to protect them from the threat of war; it was to protect her from the threat of war.
  • And criticisms of Season 8 caveats, but there the show nailed that, because ain’t that the Lannister way to use humans to shield them from the shit they do.
  • I think we’re supposed to contrast what Tyrion is doing here with how Edmure is conducting himself at Riverrun.
  • Edmure brought as many smallfolk as he could into Riverrun to protect them from the predations of war that the Lannisters were bringing.
  • Edmure was also on the defensive with a hostile army coming for him, but he wasn’t the aggressor in that fight. That was the Lannisters.
  • Tyrion might think that he’s on the defensive here, but while that’s what’s happening proximately, the Lannisters are the larger offenders.
  • The Lannisters helped to kill Robert, stole the throne and installed a tyrant onto that throne.
  • Then they took away what little food was coming into King’s Landing to feed their own garrison, clansmen, gold cloaks and sellswords.
  • And now they’re tearing down the businesses and homes of smallfolk, depriving additional starving residents of King’s Landing of their livelihoods and also their lives.
  • In a city that’s gotten this desperate, this starving, small disruptions can mean life or death for people.
  • And this is no small disruption. This is creating homelessness, unemployment and feeding additional resentment of the Lannisters when they need it the least.
  • I’m reminded of what Varys said in Tyrion’s last chapter, about how the man who castrated him said that he supposed Varys should just go die
  • Tyrion really doesn’t care about what happens next to these people; it’s entirely academic. That’s his worldview on loan from Tywin, who never even considered what happened to Tysha after he had her raped
  • Bronn, the peasant in the room, points out that people won’t like that very much! Tyrion responds that they’ll just keep hating the monkey demon
  • This is a perfect example of how Tyrion takes his reputation as a given rather than something he can at least partially influence
  • There’s nothing he can do about people hating him for his stature, and that hatred is indeed unjust. But Tyrion uses that as an excuse to ignore how he’s abused his own power and made his reputation worse
  • He’s ignored every opportunity to broadcast his best decisions and minimize his worst ones. For all his talk about outplaying Ned Stark, and not without merit, he has in this regard failed to play the game at all
  • If the people fight? See that they lose, Bronn! Tyrion acts like an occupying force while telling himself he’s defending the city
  • It sets the pattern for the buildup to and outcome of the Battle of Blackwater. Tyrion’s efforts rot from within, he is robbed of the victory he made possible, and then is left a victim of his terrible reputation in ASOS
  • I understand it from an optics perspective. So, why not take the optics one step further and declare an edict from the Iron Throne banning rape? Or, hell, if Tyrion doesn’t want to give Joffrey the credit, why not issue a declaration from the small council?
  • And in declaring this edict, why not also come out with punishments for those who commit these crimes?
  • Notice that Tyrion doesn’t mention punishment for past rapes or even punishment for future rapes?
  • The impression we’re left with is that if you commit a rape, your punishment is a solid finger wagging from Bronn. Whoop dee shit.
  • Tyrion thinks he’s being the hero here, doing the right thing in contrast to Joffrey and Cersei, but all he’s really doing is … nothing much at all. 
  • Tyrion might as well have been banning the sellswords from murdering people.
  • There’s no teeth to the order, and to bring it back to Stannis (as we do here), at the very least with Stannis, he punishes his men who commit rape when his army shows up at the Wall.
  • That’s the bare minimum.
• News of Winterfell
  • You can really sense the desperation underneath Tyrion’s in-control facade when his thoughts turn to how things are going in the wider war
  • He’d trade all his preparations for thicker and higher walls, he thinks...but then again, thicker and higher walls don’t seem to be saving any castles!
  • They didn’t save Storm’s End, nor Harrenhal, nor Winterfell. What good will they be to the Red Keep? Surely this castle will be next to fall…
  • I just have to pause, because this is stellar writing on George’s part, because it reflects how people’s thought patterns work.
  • Tyrion sees that there are structures outside of the walls of King’s Landing, which makes him think that will make the walls easier for Stannis’ men to get over which then leads to him thinking about Storm’s End and Harrenhal and then Winterfell.
  • People won’t cite this passage as an example of GRRM’s writing ability, but this is real writing shit, reflecting the thought patterns of real people. 
  • It’s a subtle way that GRRM makes his world feel alive and real.
  • Tyrion specifically dwells on the fall of Winterfell, which is weird, as he tells himself! That’s the one of the three that’s good news for his side, after all
  • The Lannisters lost Harrenhal, and the fall of Storm’s End means Stannis can march against them. The fall of Winterfell hurts only the Starks
  • Tyrion’s thoughts about Winterfell, however, don’t have anything to do with the practical strategic concerns that dominate the rest of this chapter
  • He’s thinking about Winterfell not as a square on the game-board of thrones, but as a distinct place with its own mood and history
  • Just as that feeling of dread he experienced atop the Wall with Jon in book one lingered in his memory, so too does the sense he got of Winterfell
  • It wasn’t as huge as Harrenhal, nor as impressive as Storm’s End. Its strength seemed to come from within the stones, as if it were alive
  • As such, the news of its fall came as “a wrenching shock,” as if the law of nature has been inverted. Same goes for Winterfell’s new lord
  • Tyrion cannot picture Theon Greyjoy, the callow cynical fuckboy he briefly met in book one, as the Lord of Winterfell, even though practically, he is
  • There is a weight and gravity to Winterfell that transcends Theon’s conquest of it. Tyrion knows that the godswood is the heart of it
  • It’s an ancient place, bearing witness down through the centuries; the heart tree is frozen in time, as Tyrion puts it. It outlasts us all
  • Our petty machinations fail and fade before that kind of power, and that kind of power has made the Starks, not the Greyjoys, Lords of Winterfell
  • This is also probably a legacy of Tyrion’s initial storyline, which involved him, not Theon, being the one to attack Winterfell. Had George gone with that plan, these emotions would be at the forefront, not in the background
  • Regardless, Tyrion has to shake his head and dismiss these thoughts, not only because he’s showing sympathy for his political enemies, but also because this kind of thinking undercuts his entire worldview
  • What did he tell Varys in his last chapter? That he believes in money, violence, and men’s wits. By that standard, Theon is Lord of Winterfell
  • But by another standard, Theon is a pretender. Tyrion cannot help but respond to that logic even as he dismisses it; what he saw of the North made an impression on a primal level, beyond language and rationality
  • It’s the magical/religious side of ACOK poking its head into Tyrion’s storyline, where the political/secular side rules; he can’t quite escape it
  • Tyrion’s reverence for Winterfell is religious which is a contrast to his angry skepticism he normally has for the gods or really anything ethereal.
  • The contrast is so sharp, especially when compared with Tyrion’s interaction with the High Septon we’ll unpack here in a few moments, that I’m inclined to think that this is GRRM giving evidence that something religious and magical is real in ASOIAF: Winterfell.
  • Another aspect of it is that this is a spot where we see GRRM seeding events way down the road: namely that Tyrion will return to Winterfell towards the end of the story.
  • A version of this appeared in the Thrones Show, but as with many things with Thrones’ later seasons, Tyrion returning to Winterfell occurred, but in a different context and with less of an emotional impact.
  • Tyrion is somewhat sympathetic to the Starks (and really, that’s Tyrion at his most relatable in the story), and that sympathy bleeds out into reverence for their living space.
• New Kingsguard (and angry captains, and Shae)
  • Tyrion brushes past some angry ship captains on his way to see the new Kingsguard receive their cloaks. George is cramming a bunch of different small ideas he had for scenes into this chapter pre-Battle of Blackwater
  • He does a good job of capturing how busy Tyrion is, behind on a dozen tasks, always running late, always angering someone no matter what
  • This mini-scene also reinforces how turbulent the affairs of state and market are right now. As with the sellswords, Tyrion has to trade on the promise of victory, but he also acknowledges the possibility of failure
  • If the Lannisters lose, these captains will apply to Stannis for their compensation. Regardless of how that goes for them, the wheel keeps turning. No one depends on the Lannisters being in charge...except them
  • So they have to try and bind people to their side, offering favors (or threats) that they won’t get from any of the other competing factions
  • Similarly, the people seeking favor from the Lannisters always have to keep their options open in case the Lannisters wind up the losing side
  • We saw that with Vargo Hoat and his Bloody Mummers, and we see it again with the new Kingsguard: Balon Swann and Osmund Kettleblack
  • Tyrion frames Balon Swann to us as the ideal knight: valiant, courtly, skilled at arms, and highly born. Couldn’t ask for a better Kingsguard
  • But then Tyrion reveals the context. As Davos told us earlier in the book, not all the Stormlands Houses were eager to join their liege lord Renly
  • Some held back out of the uncertainty I mentioned regarding how the war would go; prominent among the weathervane houses is House Swann
  • Lord Swann stayed out of the war and dispatched his two sons to different sides: one Lannister, one Baratheon. It’s a strategy that carries its own risks, of course: what if the winning side is pissed off by this equivocating?
  • But given how quickly the politics shift in the War of Five Kings, there is definitely wisdom to this move, especially if Balon plays his role to the hilt
  • On the surface, Balon is a fantasy made flesh. Behind the scenes, the dictates of power and the uncertainties of politics are more complicated
  • The same dynamic applies to Osmund Kettleblack, but in a different way. He too fulfills the basic function of a Kingsguard, as he’s big and strong
  • He too, however, has a loyalty problem. In his case, it’s not a noble family divided. It’s a lower-class family hopping among patrons 
  • They sell Cersei out to Tyrion, Tyrion out to Cersei, and both of them out to Littlefinger. Osmund is no more honorable than the coward Boros Blount. The ceremony preserves the shadow on a wall, but Tyrion sees the cynical currents underneath, pointing them out to the reader
  • Tyrion has taken the lesson that he received from Tyrion II where he wonders whether he replaced Littlefinger’s man (Janos Slynt) with Varys’ man (Jacelyn Bywater).
  • Of course, like you’re saying: Osmund Kettleblack isn’t really Tyrion’s man. He feeds Tyrion choice morsels, but he’s truly Littlefinger’s man as we come to find out in ASOS.
  • And that’s really what’s at work with Tyrion. Sure, he’s smart, and he plays a cynical game, but he’s still not a top-tier conspirator in King’s Landing. 
  • We’ll revisit this character beat at chapter’s end.
  • Of course, as we’ve been saying in these chapters, Tyrion has his own blind spots, particularly regarding Shae. He wants to catch a glimpse of her now as Lollys’ maid, even though that would risk them both
  • He can’t help it, as he couldn’t help riding to her romantically in his last chapter. This is his Achilles heel, the complicated loyalty he keeps secret
  • And like the Kettleblacks, Shae keeps focused on climbing the ladder of class even while feigning loyalty to those already at the top
  • Shae would rather be a lady’s maid than a pot girl, and wants to bring jewelry if she can. She’ll push any inch of advantage, just like the players in the game of thrones. Tyrion wants his life with Shae to be an oasis, an exception to the rule, but it isn’t any more than it was with Tysha
  • So Tyrion turns back to his true mistress, the game of thrones. The new High Septon is his own appointee, and knows enough to stay in line
  • Tyrion makes expert use here of the Faith as an institution and the High Septon as a mouthpiece, declaring anathema upon Stannis and R’hllor
  • Tyrion wants to spread the rumor that Stannis plans to burn the Great Sept of Baelor. The High Septon asks if that’s true. Tyrion doesn’t know and doesn’t care--he just knows that the Faith are way more popular than the Lannisters, and the people will fight harder to defend the former
  • It’s another untrue rumor the Lannisters spread about Stannis, as with the rumor that Patchface fathered Shireen. I’m less sympathetic to Stannis in this case, however, because he’s leaning into this intolerant reputation
  • As Tyrion says, Stannis burned the godswood at Storm’s End. He didn’t have to do that, politically speaking. He did it to appease Melisandre
  • If he hadn’t done that, it would be much less likely that anyone would believe Tyrion’s lie about the Great Sept. He might not even try it
  • The irony here is that Tyrion, as we’ve seen in this chapter, shares this same fault with Stannis: both constantly reinforce their bad reputation
  • They think of it as something out of their control. They use the unfair aspects of their reputations to let themselves off the hook for the fair parts
  • Tyrion is smart enough in this scene to weaponize the power of the Faith against Stannis, but he can’t seem to ever bolster his own public image
  • As always, with both Stannis and Tyrion, it comes down to family. Stannis thinks no one can ever love him because his brothers didn’t; Tyrion thinks no one can ever love him because his father didn’t. Personal fears and desires are always caught up in political machinations, and vice versa
  • Tyrion only thinks of the High Septon and the Faith as a weapon he can use in his political machinations, without regard for what politicizing the Faith will do in the long-term.
  • Yes, it makes sense that Tyrion would wield the Faith as a weapon against Stannis, and you can draw the line of thought from Tyrion III when he saw the letter from Stannis that concluded with “done in the Light of the Lord” and Stannis’ burning of the heart tree at Storm’s End.
  • Of course, readers will be aware that Stannis has a quasi-tolerance for the Faith of the Seven — his best friend, only friend Davos is a follower of the Faith, and he’ll later promote him to lordship and Hand of the King.
  • But with Stannis, there’s always an on the other hand, and we see that here at Storm’s End and later in ASOS where Melisandre tells Jon to burn the Winterfell godswood as part of the exchange to be named Lord Jon Stark of Winterfell.
  • Getting back to weaponizing the Faith for political purposes: this is another spot where Tyrion is seeking a short-term advantage with long-term disadvantages for the Lannisters.
  • This High Septon will eventually be murdered by Ser Osney Kettleblack as Cersei will come to believe that he is Tyrion’s creature.
  • But his legacy will live on. The High Sparrow who follows in his footsteps will continue the politicization of the Faith — albeit independently of direct orders from the Lannister regime and to the direct detriment of said Lannisters.
  • Moreover, Tyrion will tell Tywin in ASOS that his High Septon barks like a trained dog and thinks of this as a good thing.
  • It’s not. The smallfolk of King’s Landing just murdered the fat High Septon during the riot, and the subtext is that tying religion to the crown is leading to the people thinking ill of the high clergy.
  • This is the problem with secular politicians using religion as a sword. Like sorcery, there is no safe way to wield it.
  • Stannis is finding this with Melisandre’s red hawk at Storm’s End, and the Lannisters will find this with Faith come AFFC.
• Balon’s letter (and the wildfire report, and traitors)
  • Tyrion returns to his solar to find old news from Doran Martell regarding the fall of Storm’s End and an offer of alliance from Balon Greyjoy 
  • Tyrion regards the offer as intriguing, reading it several times, but ultimately is unsure what to make of it and does nothing with it
  • You could see that as a failure on Tyrion’s part, but I’m more inclined to lay the failure at Balon Greyjoy’s feet. No one plays the game worse than him
  • As Tyrion notes, Balon is demanding he be allowed to hold onto a huge amount of territory and resources that the Iron Throne currently claims
  • After all, Balon isn’t threatening the Lannisters, saying he’ll raid their lands if they dare challenge his rule in the North. He wants a permanent alliance, wherein the Lannisters voluntarily accept his rule of the North
  • Why on earth would they do that? What are they getting out of it? Tyrion points out that their ships are too far away to be of use against Stannis
  • Moreover, as Tywin says in ASOS, Balon went about this all backwards. He should’ve written to the Lannisters first, offering to attack the North in exchange for being allowed to hold onto whatever he conquers
  • As it stands, he’s already fighting the Northmen. Why should the Lannisters give him anything when he’s already provided his value?
  • Even then, Balon could have said something like, “If no alliance can be reached between the Iron Throne and the Seastone Chair, I will be forced to stake my claim further.”
  • So, not only has Balon failed to make the offer of alliance before attacking; he’s also failed in his second chance to put any teeth into this offer.
  • How ironic is it that Balon mocked Theon for his diplomacy, declaring he will take his kingdom with iron, and then comes hat in hand to the Lannisters for a peaceful alliance. And he can’t even do that right, because the Old Way never taught him how to conduct diplomacy
  • It’s doubly ironic in context with Doran’s letter. Balon’s letter is equally old news, equally useless, because he ceded the negotiation before it started
  • From there, Tyrion moves onto a different kind of negotiation with Hallyne and the pyromancers. Their offer also seems too good to be true
  • Even when Tyrion gets positive news--Winterfell has fallen, the Ironborn want to be best friends, we have more wildfire than expected--he can’t help but dig for the bad news. This is part realism, but also part cynicism
  • In part, Tyrion is right and smart to be skeptical of Hallyne. The pyromancers don’t seem trustworthy or on the ball in general, and this is well ahead of their projections. Is this a grift, Tyrion wonders out loud?
  • Hallyne offers a partial explanation--that Lord Rossart left some wildfire lying around. Yikes!! As with the starving children, Tyrion recognizes that this is less than ideal, but filters everything through his own power, so he doesn’t see it as disastrous. Rather, he zeroes in on Hallyne’s deception
  • That still doesn’t account for the increase in production. Hallyne says they’re working hard, and Tyrion pulls the ultimate manager move. Why weren’t you working hard before, huh?? We all know this move. It’s why perversely, you often have an incentive to do less than your best, because otherwise, your best is a standard you will be expected to meet every time
  • But Tyrion enjoys being in charge too much to realize he’s laying down this perverse incentive. It’s too much fun to watch Hallyne go pale. Tyrion has experienced so little power that he’s come to love the taste of it
  • When Tyrion talked about loving the game of thrones for its own sake back in Tyrion VII, he framed it as role-reversal. He loves how everyone mocked him and scorned him, but now they have to bow their heads and defer to him.
  • When he sits atop the Iron Throne and loves how tall he feels, he is relishing the role reversal some more.
  • It’s a theme for Tyrion, and here, Hallyne has to bob his head and go pale as a mushroom, because Tyrion can have him killed with a word.
  • He has all these murderous sellswords about after all. They wouldn’t flinch from stabbing this guy.
  • But Tyrion remains a dwarf and remains looked down upon by societal prejudice.
  • Bronn, impudent as always, doesn’t care that Tyrion is a Lannister and Hand of the King, and even tells Tyrion that they should kill Joffrey and put Tommen onto the Iron Throne to Tyrion’s horror and anger. Bronn just laughs him off.
  • Jacelyn Bywater, less impudent, doesn’t shy away from telling Tyrion things he may not want to hear.
  • Consider how all the Westermen are all going Halyne with Tywin at the war council at the end of AGOT, quivering and dodging responsibility while under Tywin’s gaze.
  • No one speaks to Tywin the way many people speak to Tyrion. No one throws rotten fish at Tywin either.
  • Tyrion has grown frustrated that even with his position, his last name, he can’t really intimidate people the way that Tywin could with a look.
  • So, Tyrion focuses his frustrations on Hallyne, because this guy is both the ultimate yes man and also easily spooked.
  • Hallyne breaks down into excuses about his spells; ultimately, he can’t explain why they’re working better than they are. Perhaps there are dragons around? Dragons supposedly make the spells work better
  • This revelation backs up what Quaithe said about the fiery ladder in Dany III: her dragonbirth acted as a magic rejuvenator the whole world over
  • Even across the world in Westeros, the pyromancers are rediscovering the tools of wonder and terror thanks to Dany bringing dragons back
  • It’s the rising tide of magic in ACOK to match the expanding political struggles. Yet even looking it in the face, Tyrion can’t recognize it, any more than he did with Alliser Thorne’s warning of the apocalypse
  • Tyrion simply does not believe in the old powers...yet he makes use of them all the same, just as he doesn’t really believe in Joffrey’s power, but backs it up anyway because he draws his own power from Joffrey
  • This radical increase in wildfire output is what makes his colossal “jade holocaust” on the Blackwater possible...even though Tyrion doesn’t think about that here. He doesn’t think about his chain in this chapter, either
  • George is holding back on these elements so they hit with the requisite amount of surprise at the Battle of Blackwater. But it also suits Tyrion as a POV. Whatever he doesn’t want to think about, he doesn’t. Whatever contradicts his self-image as a rational man trying his best to do justice in an unjust world, he hides away in his subconscious, until he can’t anymore
  • Jacelyn Bywater’s report also gets at those barely buried contradictions. Tommen is hale and happy now...because he’s away from Joffrey!
  • He has a faun as a pet, to replace one Joffrey had skinned. He asks about his mother and sister, but never his brother. That’s the King for whom Tyrion is doing all this--someone who torments his sweet innocent brother
  • A small note here is Joffrey skinning the faun for a jerkin reads as a psychopathic and abused child’s attempt to win his father’s approval.
  • Or if this act of cruelty was done after Robert was dead, it’s Joffrey attempting to emulate big daddy bob’s love of hunting.
  • Robert’s lack of care and love for his son is bleeding out to his son’s actions.
  • The chapter ends as it began, on a comedic note. Varys walks in saying “men are such faithless creatures,” which as Tyrion notes, is a hilariously overwrought way to walk into a room. The humorous tone continues as Tyrion laments that one of the traitors is the armorer who promised Tyrion a helm with demon horns. Aw, too bad, he was looking forward to that!
  • Under the surface, however, the destabilization of Lannister power continues. As Cersei notes in Tyrion’s next chapter, many of these traitors are wealthy and influential. This is not connected to the bread riots
  • Rather, these “Antler Men” are specifically Stannis partisans. Not because they love him, but because like the Bloody Mummers, like Bronn’s sellswords, like Lord Swann, they want above all to be on the winning side
  • That’s the big theme of the chapter--what does the winning side look like? How do you know which side is the winning one before it, y’know, wins?
  • The Antler Men decided the Lannister side does not look like the winning one. Balon Swann, Jacelyn Bywater, and Bronn made a different call
  • It’s always in part a projection. We see that with the Antler Men themselves. Tyrion notes that their name is all wrong. Stannis doesn’t fly the crowned stag anymore. They should call themselves the Hot Hearts!
  • It’s one more joke that cuts deep when you think about it. Stannis can’t even take advantage of his own natural coalition; during the Blackwater, Davos wishes they were flying the crowned stag, not this [S]tranger’s flag
  • No loyalties stay true in Tyrion XI. The image and the substance never line up. All Tyrion knows how to do is keep playing the game until he loses
  • You can really see why the merchant class is allegedly, allegedly turning “traitor” (the irony) on the Lannisters.
  • The Lannisters look to be the losers in this war and are proving thieves not only of the throne but of the property of people who just happened to have the things that Lannisters need, want.
  • Getting back to those ship captains who petitioned Tyrion for redress about their seized ships: Governments appropriating shipping in war is a common practice in the real world and in Westeros.
  • Stannis takes any ship into his service as soon as they sailed into the Dragonstone Harbor at the start of ACOK
  • Paxter Redwyne takes over a thousand merchant ships into his service for his massive Redwyne Fleet (Find out what happens to them in “The Second Coming, Part 5”!)
  • Usually, the lords who impound these ships plan to return those ships after the war is done, or they’ll compensate them if the ships are sunk during the war.
  • But Tyrion is subverting the normal practice of war, because he’s not planning on returning any of these ships back to their captains.
  • And given that the crown is practically penniless, having incurred massive debts due to Littlefinger’s deferred interest scheme during Robert’s Rebellion, Tyrion isn’t planning to pay the captains back after he kabooms their ships on the Blackwater.
  • It’s minor in the grand scheme of things, but it’s a theme with the Lannisters in destroying every possible norm in order to gain a short-term advantage in luring Stannis’ fleet into Blackwater Bay, but the long-term consequences will be felt long after Tyrion has fled the city.
  • As for these alleged Antler Men: Tyrion remains a second-tier conspirator and player in the game of thrones.
  • The chief reason is that he is entirely reliant upon Varys to gathering intelligence for him, despite knowing that Varys is not entirely trustworthy.
  • Were these men truly going to open the Mud Gate for Stannis’ army when they arrived? Maybe! We don’t know!
  • And neither does Tyrion. He can only see what Varys shows him, and Varys will keep his true intentions (seating Young Grift onto the Iron Throne) hidden for now.
  • Varys may have been working towards that end here with the Antler Men.
  • What better way to stir up long-term trouble for King’s Landing and seed the path for Young Grift’s arrival than removing the merchant class and stirring up resentment among that class of people.
  • Additionally, in removing these people, we don’t get Varys or Tyrion saying “And so, the income and lands of these traitors are now forfeit to the crown.”
  • What that means is that the heirs of these merchants will likely inherit both the resentment of their fathers and their money too.
  • I wonder who will be opening the Mud Gate to Young Grift come Winds.

Foreshadowing/Groundwork

Bywater himself will die as a result of the lack of discipline he describes.

Rossart’s wildfire will come back when Jaime reveals Aerys’ plans; coming right after HOTU, George is laying down a lot of foreshadowing for this one!

Tyrion is right that Robb will have to return from the west and go north in response to Theon taking Winterfell...but Robb won’t make it that far.

The trebuchets are called “The Three Whores” by Tyrion’s men, and this naming convention was seemingly something George revisited in ADWD/TWOW at the Battle of Fire as the six trebuchets that the Yunkai’i have are called “The Six Sisters.”

Tyrion notes that a prince died from drinking wildfire without saying who this prince was, but Jeor Mormont tells the story to Jon back in ACOK, Jon I. Was this reference intentional coming right after the HoTU story and the potential references to Aerion (mummer’s dragon)? 

Hallyne talks about the wildfire being much more potent stuff and asks if there’s dragons about as they cause the substance to be more potent. If you’ve read the books, you’d know that there are dragons about, and this is one more moment where GRRM is setting up the dragon apotheosis of King’s Landing.

Tyrion notes that Tywin is not dead “yet.” Again, GRRM was planning for Tywin’s death as far back as AGOT, and we get another note here that Tywin’s end is coming. And soon.

Tywin will respond to Balon’s letter. Suffice to say, he doesn’t take it well.

Theory/Discussion

How will our new Kingsguard knights Balon Swann and Osmund Kettleblack meet their untimely ends?

Conclusion

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