Episode 168: A STORM OF SWORDS, TYRION III: "Hands of Gold" SHOW NOTES! (Patreon)

Hello and welcome to the Not A Cast … podcast: the one true chapter-by-chapter podcast going through A Song of Ice and Fire one chapter a week. I’m one of your hosts Jeff better known as BryndenBFish.

And I’m your other host Emmett, better known as PoorQuentyn.

Welcome to the one hundred and sixty-eighth episode of the Not A Cast, titled: “Hands of Gold: An Analysis of ASOS, Tyrion III” in which now that the supernatural threat to Westeros is complete, we get a massive small council chapter.

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Question

Ser Dave, a Sworn Sword patron, asks:

I was listening to you discuss Willas Tyrell on your recent Sansa episode and it dawned on me that just as Margaery and Loras have served as character foils for Cersei and Jaime, George seems to be teeing up Willas as a foil for Tyrion. How do you see this playing out in The Winds of Winter when it comes out next week? Do you think Willas and Tyrion will eventually cross paths?

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Yes indeed. And if we get to 950 total patrons, we’ll start our analyses of TWOW, Theon I. As of the recording of this episode, we are at 907 patrons, or 43 new patrons shy of releasing the first part of our analysis of the Theon TWOW chapter. So, if you like what you hear on our regular episodes, enjoy all the holiday bonus content and want to hear us tackle the Theon TWOW chapter, consider becoming a patron today at patreon.com/NotACastASOIAF!

But enough about patreon. When we last checked in with Tyrion Lannister, he learned how powerless he was -- even failing to break up with Shae. Let’s find out where the true power of Westeros lies in this synopsis of ASOS, Tyrion III!

Synopsis

Lord Tywin's chain of hands made a golden glitter against the deep wine velvet of his tunic. The Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan gathered round him as he entered. He greeted each in turn, spoke a quiet word to Varys, kissed the High Septon's ring and Cersei's cheek, clasped the hand of Grand Maester Pycelle, and seated himself in the king's place at the head of the long table, between his daughter and his brother.

Tyrion sits in Pycelle’s old seat as Pycelle stays as far away from Tyrion as he can. Tyrion notes his much-shortened facial and neck hair and doesn’t care. Meanwhile, Mace Tyrell, Paxter Redwyne, Mathis Rowan and the High Septon scramble to find seats at the table. Tyrion thinks that the game has changed, and he doesn’t know how to play it.

To his face, the lords are courteous, with Mace Tyrell complimenting Tyrion on the chain at the Blackwater and how smart it was, but Tyrion can’t respond with courtesy in his mind:

Tell it to the people of this city, Tyrion thought bitterly. Tell it to the bloody singers, with their songs of Renly's ghost.

Kevan Lannister, a war criminal, is warm to Tyrion, telling his nephew that Lancel spoke highly of Nuncle Tyrion. In response, Tyrion thinks that Lancel better speak highly of him, or he’ll inform Kevan of what Lancel did with Cersei. Obligatory, but Tyrion is GOOD. But he does ask after Lancel’s health. Kevan responds that the prognosis is mixed. Lancel feels better some days, worse on others. But Cersei is there lifting his spirits and praying for him. Tyrion wonders if Cersei is praying for Lancle to live or die, and he thinks she’s probably hoping Lancel carries the secret of their affair to his grave. But would she murder the boy? Tyrion’s not sure, but Cersei puts on the charm today with flirtations to Mace Tyrell, compliments on Horror and Slobber Redwyne, jokes with Mathis Rowan and “pious noises” with the High Septon.

With everyone accounted for, Lord Tyrell asks if they should begin the small council sesh with wedding talk.

"No," their father said. "With the war. Varys."

The eunuch smiled a silken smile. "I have such delicious tidings for you all, my lords. Yesterday at dawn our brave Lord Randyll caught Robett Glover outside Duskendale and trapped him against the sea. Losses were heavy on both sides, but in the end our loyal men prevailed. Ser Helman Tallhart is reported dead, with a thousand others. Robett Glover leads the survivors back toward Harrenhal in bloody disarray, little dreaming he will find valiant Ser Gregor and his stalwarts athwart his path."

"Gods be praised!" said Paxter Redwyne. "A great victory for King Joffrey! "

What did Joffrey have to do with it? thought Tyrion.

Littlefinger says that the north lost but not Robb Stark. Mathis asks where Robb is, and Tywin says that he’s back at Riverrun. Daven Lannister is regrouping the Westermen at Lannisport and planning to join Ser Forley Prester at the Golden Tooth for when Robb heads north. They’ll jointly march on Riverrun and besiege the castle.

Rowan wants to know if Robb will go north, especially since the Ironborn are at Moat Cailin, and Mace Tyrells says that the boy must march north to reclaim his kingdom. That’s what the greatest military mind of Westeros would do. That mind being Mace Tyrell’s, of course.

Tyrion had to bite his tongue at that. Robb Stark had won more battles in a year than the Lord of Highgarden had in twenty. Tyrell's reputation rested on one indecisive victory over Robert Baratheon at Ashford, in a battle largely won by Lord Tarly's van before the main host had even arrived. The siege of Storm's End, where Mace Tyrell actually did hold the command, had dragged on a year to no result, and after the Trident was fought, the Lord of Highgarden had meekly dipped his banners to Eddard Stark.

Get rekt, Flower-Man.

Littlefinger jests that he wants to chastise Robb for allowing Roose Bolton to stable goats at Harrenhal, but Kevan Lannister changes the course of the conversation, telling everyone that Balon Greyjoy wrote to the Iron Throne proposing an alliance. Cersei thinks Balon should offer fealty, but Tywin says that Balon is claiming kingship through right of conquest. It’s also best they don’t provoke Balon given that his longships could descend on the Westerlands and Reach.

Mathis asks the terms of Balon’s alliance, and Tywin reports that Balon just wants the North. Paxter Redwyne says sure, great, The North is just a wasteland. And they get Greyjoy swords and sails. Mace Tyrell says he would do the same thing. They need to finish Stannis off.

Tywin then abruptly changes the topic to Lysa Arryn. What should they do with her? Her husband was conspiring with Stannis before the war after all. Mace says just let her be, and Paxter agrees. Besides, Lysa didn’t do any treason, right?

Tyrion stirred. "She did throw me in a cell and put me on trial for my life," he pointed out, with a certain amount of rancor. "Nor has she returned to King's Landing to swear fealty to Joff, as she was commanded. My lords, grant me the men, and I will sort out Lysa Arryn." He could think of nothing he would enjoy more, except perhaps strangling Cersei. Sometimes he still dreamed of the Eyrie's sky cells, and woke drenched in cold sweat.

Mace Tyrell's smile was jovial, but behind it Tyrion sensed contempt. "Perhaps you'd best leave the fighting to fighters," said the Lord of Highgarden. "Better men than you have lost great armies in the Mountains of the Moon, or shattered them against the Bloody Gate. We know your worth, my lord, no need to tempt fate."

Tyrion starts to jump up to tell Mace to go fuck himself, but Tywin says that he has a job for Tyrion. Littlefinger will take care of the Eyrie with his little finger.  He’s going to the Vale to sex Lysa, and he’ll bring the Vale back into the royal fold without any blood shed. Mathis Rowan asks if Lysa will have him, and Littlefinger’s like, yup, already had her. High fives all around, because I had sex.

Cersei remarks that sex is different than marriage. True, but Littlefinger will get to marry Lysa now that he’s the Lord of Harrenhal. Paxter and Mace look at each other, but Mathis says that it might work. The High Septon drones on about how the gods will bless Littlefinger’s noble venture if he can bring the Vale back without blood. Paxter wonders how given that Robert Arryn is the Lord of the Eyrie. But Littlefinger’s all like he’ll be a great stepdad and bring Robert to heel.

Tyrion studied the slender man with the pointed beard and irreverent grey-green eyes. Lord of Harrenhal an empty honor? Bugger that, Father. Even if he never sets foot in the castle, the title makes this match possible, as he's known all along.

"We have no lack of foes," said Ser Kevan Lannister. "If the Eyrie can be kept out of the war, all to the good. I am of a mind to see what Lord Petyr can accomplish."

Ser Kevan was his brother's vanguard in council, Tyrion knew from long experience; he never had a thought that Lord Tywin had not had first. It has all been settled beforehand, he concluded, and this discussion's no more than show.

Tyrion realizes that everyone is going to just let Littlefinger shear them naked. So, he asks the question on who will pay for all of the crown’s debts when Littlefinger is gone. Why that would be a Lannister, of course. Tyrion has a bad feeling about this as Tywin says that Tyrion is suited for the task to Kevan’s agreement.

Anyways, now that Tyrion has been named to the Master of Coin, when is LIttlefinger leaving? “Tomorrow,” he says with a gigantic wink and probably using finger quotes. Mace asks if Littlefinger will be sad to miss Joff’s wedding, but he doesn’t. Littlefinger probably makes a long motion to look at his watch and says he needs to sail now rather than risk the autumn storms or something.

Everyone says bye to Littlefinger, and Paxter returns the conversation to the Greyjoys. They should make the alliance to attack Dragonstone. But Tywin has a different perspective:

"King Balon's longships are occupied for the nonce," Lord Tywin said politely, "as are we. Greyjoy demands half the kingdom as the price of alliance, but what will he do to earn it? Fight the Starks? He is doing that already. Why should we pay for what he has given us for free? The best thing to do about our lord of Pyke is nothing, in my view. Granted enough time, a better option may well present itself. One that does not require the king to give up half his kingdom."

Tyrion watched his father closely. There's something he's not saying. He remembered those important letters Lord Tywin had been writing, the night Tyrion had demanded Casterly Rock. What was it he said? Some battles are won with swords and spears, others with quills and ravens . . . he wondered who the "better option" was, and what sort of price he was demanding.

Yes, what really is Tywin doing here? Truly. It’s a mystery.

Anyways, Kevan says they should talk about the wedding, and they talk about the details. But then Pycelle brings up a raven he received saying that three hundred Dornishmen are coming to King’s Landing, and they’ll arrive before the wedding. This does not please Mace Tyrell who barks about the Dornishmen not asking his leave to progress into his lands. Tyrion recalls that the animosity came from the fact that Oberyn Martell had paralyzed Willas Tyrell during a tilt. He thinks it’ll be hilarious to see what Tywin will say.

"Prince Doran comes at my son's invitation," Lord Tywin said calmly, "not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murder of his sister Elia and her children."

Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but it was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks fit to gag.

Oh interesting reactions there by all, especially Lord Mathis. But we’ll get to that.

Kevan says that everyone is going to be friends given that Margaery is married to Joffrey and Myrcella to Trystane, right? Mace says it’s his daughter’s wedding, but Tywin says it’s his grandsons. They don’t all have to quarrel over old, forgotten shit, right? Oh, well, um, Mace doesn’t mind Doran. He just needs to ask his leave to cross his lands. Fat fucking chance that happens, thinks Tyrion. But Tyrion thinks it’ll be fine to house them in the dais during the wedding. Mace grunts sort-of approval, and Tywin says they need to move on.

Next topic is the fruits of victory. How will they divide their ill-gotten gain? Everyone has demands, and fortunately there are a lot of dead lords, lordlings and knights that they can steal from. And then there were “traitors” they could disinherit.

Highgarden reaped the richest harvest. Tyrion eyed Mace Tyrell's broad belly and thought, He has a prodigious appetite, this one. Tyrell demanded the lands and castles of Lord Alester Florent, his own bannerman, who'd had the singular ill judgment to back first Renly and then Stannis. Lord Tywin was pleased to oblige. Brightwater Keep and all its lands and incomes were granted to Lord Tyrell's second son, Ser Garlan, transforming him into a great lord in the blink of an eye. His elder brother, of course, stood to inherit Highgarden itself.

Oh that’s real interesting about the Florent lands. I wonder if Randyll will have a thing to say about that -- especially since he (along with Mathis Rowan, Lady Oakheart and Leyton Hightower) get lesser tracts of land. For his part, Redwyne only wants a remission of taxes against Arbor gold. Granted, he proposes a toast. But Cersei only wants sword, not toasts. They need to fight usurpers.

Varys thinks that the usurpers will be dead soon, and then Kevan changes the conversation to talk about how they found some of the crystals from the High Septon who was murdered during the riot. The new High Septon pontificates about how the Father will judge the people who stole his crown. Tywin agrees and says a new crown must be made. Anyways, what are the reports, Varys?

The eunuch drew a parchment from his sleeve. "A kraken has been seen off the Fingers." He giggled. "Not a Greyjoy, mind you, a true kraken. It attacked an Ibbenese whaler and pulled it under. There is fighting on the Stepstones, and a new war between Tyrosh and Lys seems likely. Both hope to win Myr as ally. Sailors back from the Jade Sea report that a three-headed dragon has hatched in Qarth, and is the wonder of that city-"

Tywin interrupts to say he doesn’t care about dragons or krakens. He wants to know if Tyrek Lannister has been found. Sadly, so sadly, the boy has vanished. Kevan brings up that some gold cloaks have returned to the barracks, and Addam Marbrand wants to know what to do with them. Cersei says put them to death. Varys says send them to the Night’s Watch. There are reports of wildlings stirring. But Tywin says to break their knees with hammers as a warning to those who might think about deserting. Tyrion, though, remembers his time on the Wall and how Jeor was afraid. Maybe they break a few knees and send the rest of the Wall? If the Wall falls, that’ll be bad right?

" . . . the wildlings will flood the north," his father finished, "and the Starks and Greyjoys will have another enemy to contend with. They no longer wish to be subject to the Iron Throne, it would seem, so by what right do they look to the Iron Throne for aid? King Robb and King Balon both claim the north. Let them defend it, if they can. And if not, this Mance Rayder might even prove a useful ally." Lord Tywin looked to his brother. "Is there more?"

Kevan says the session is at an end, but Tywin wants words with his children and Kevan. So, the spineless council makes its way out and Kevan closes the door. Now alone, Tyrion asks who suggested him for the position of Master of Coin. Littlefinger, of course. But Tyrion thinks this is a trap. But Littlefinger sold out Ned Stark, Cersei points out. Exactly. That monster will sell out anyone, and he makes gold up out of thin air and lies. Tyrion and Cersei bicker about who the liar truly is, but Tywin slams his hand on the table all-abusive-dad-like and says enough.

Kevan remarks that Littlefinger in the Vale is a better match for Lysa and thus the Lannisters than any of the Vale Lords angling for the role. Besides that, Littlefinger brought word of the Tyrell plot to send Sansa to Highgarden to marry Willas Tyrell. Incredulous, Tyrion asks how Littlefinger found out about the plot instead of Varys. Cersei goes all “But Sansa is my hostage.” Tywin, though, points out that if the Tyrells asked to take Sansa to Highgarden, Cersei would have to allow it as the Tyrells would take offense to that. Who gives a shit, Cersei asks.

Bloody fool, thought Tyrion. "Sweet sister," he explained patiently, "offend Tyrell and you offend Redwyne, Tarly, Rowan, and Hightower as well, and perhaps start them wondering whether Robb Stark might not be more accommodating of their desires."

"I will not have the rose and the direwolf in bed together," declared Lord Tywin. "We must forestall him."

"How?" asked Cersei.

"By marriage. Yours, to begin with."

Stunned into silence for a moment, Verse gets angry and declares that she won’t marry again. Kevan says, well, um, you’re still young, and you might want the company of a man, and the incest talk would cease if Cersei was married. Tywin concurs, saying that this would stop Stannis’ very true slander that Cersei is incestuous. Cersei is to have a husband to father more children. No  thanks, dad. Cersei has three kids, and she’s Queen, not a brood mare.

"You are my daughter, and will do as I command."

She stood. "I will not sit here and listen to this-"

"You will if you wish to have any voice in the choice of your next husband," Lord Tywin said calmly.

Cersei hesitates and sits down, and  Tywin repeats that when Cersei marries and breeds, it’ll make Stannis a liar. Anyways, Cersei probably won’t marry Mace Tyrell, Paxter Redwyne or Doran Martell. But maybe Balon Greyjoy after his elderly wife dies? Nope. Tyrion thinks it’ll be hilarious for Cersei to go to Pyke, because he is obviously GOOD.

Tywin rattles off some more ideas. Oberyn Martell, maybe? But then Mace wouldn’t like that. So, maybe one of Mace’s sons or one of the Redwyne twins, Theon Greyjoy, Quentyn Martell. But Tywin has the best of ideas: the eldest son of Mace Tyrell.

Willas Tyrell. Tyrion was taking a wicked pleasure in Cersei's helpless fury. "That would be the cripple," he said.

Their father chilled him with a look. "Willas is heir to Highgarden, and by all reports a mild and courtly young man, fond of reading books and looking at the stars. He has a passion for breeding animals as well, and owns the finest hounds, hawks, and horses in the Seven Kingdoms."

A perfect match, mused Tyrion. Cersei also has a passion for breeding. He pitied poor Willas Tyrell, and did not know whether he wanted to laugh at his sister or weep for her.

Anyways, that’s Tywin’s choice, but Cersei can have a “voice” in the matter. What’s her take? She’s not sure whether to marry the Boomer Greyjoy or the dog boy. She’ll need time to consider. She asks for leave to go, and Tyrion thinks, um, you’re the queen. You don’t have to ask those kinds of questions. But Tywin dismisses her all the same.

So, Cersei heads off enraged as Tyrion muses that Cersei would be angry but would do what she was told. She did that with Robert back in the day. The problem was Jaime. He would probably murder the fuck out of Willas if Cersei married him. But now Tywin turns to Tyrion. You see, Tywin thinks that Tyrion’s love of sex workers is a weaknesses, but maybe that’s Tywin’s fault. Maybe. Sure. Tyrion needs to wed too. Tyrion laugh-snarls, and Tywin asks if he thinks it’s funny. Yeah, kinda. Tyrion would be an ugly bridegroom. But he thinks it would be pleasant to have lands and a castle away from Cersei and Tywin.

The thing is that Shae would be upset even if she’s cool with being Tyrion’s whore.

That was scarcely a point to sway his father, however, so Tyrion squirmed higher in his seat and said, "You mean to wed me to Sansa Stark. But won't the Tyrells take the match as an affront, if they have designs on the girl?"

No, because the Tyrells won’t bring up the Sansa-Willas match until after Joffrey’s wedding. That’s why Sansa and Tyrion are getting married first. Besides, the match between Cersei and Willas will soothe any lingering issues. Uh-huh.

Tyrion rubbed at the raw stub of his nose. The scar tissue itched abominably sometimes. "His Grace the royal pustule has made Sansa's life a misery since the day her father died, and now that she is finally rid of Joffrey you propose to marry her to me. That seems singularly cruel. Even for you, Father."

"Why, do you plan to mistreat her?" His father sounded more curious than concerned. "The girl's happiness is not my purpose, nor should it be yours. Our alliances in the south may be as solid as Casterly Rock, but there remains the north to win, and the key to the north is Sansa Stark."

Tyrion correctly objects that Sansa is a child, but Tywin says who cares. She’s had her first period. All Tyrion needs to do is take her maidenhead and then wait until she’s older to bed her again. Having just re-read the Ramsay-Jeyne scene from ADWD, I am disgusted. But Tyrion thinks he just wants Shae, and Sansa is a girl. So, Tyrion suggests sending her back to Riverrun. Maybe Robb puts down his sword if that occurs. Tywin thinks no. She’ll marry a Riverlander or a northman. Sansa must marry a Lannister quickly.

Kevan says that Tyrion could claim Winterfell in Sansa’s name, and Tywin muses aloud whether one of Kevan’s sons could marry Sansa. Maybe Lancel? No. He’s not strong enough yet and might never be. His twins might serve, but they are captives in Riverrun.

Tyrion let them have their byplay; it was all for his benefit, he knew. Sansa Stark, he mused. Soft-spoken sweet-smelling Sansa, who loved silks, songs, chivalry and tall gallant knights with handsome faces. He felt as though he was back on the bridge of boats, the deck shifting beneath his feet.

Tywin launches into a history of his schemes to marry Tyrion. He asked to marry Tyrion to Lysa but was rejected. His suggestion to Dorne was taken as an insult. Yohn Royce and Leyton Hightower rejected Tyrion. Tywin even tried to wed Tyrion to the Florent girl Robert deflowered on Stannis’ wedding night, but that was rejected too. If Tyrion’s not going to have Sansa, Tywin will find a match for Tyrion. Maybe Lady Tanda’s daughter Lollys?

Tyrion gave a shudder of dismay. "I'd sooner cut it off and feed it to the goats."

"Then open your eyes. The Stark girl is young, nubile, tractable, of the highest birth, and still a maid. She is not uncomely. Why would you hesitate?"

Why indeed? "A quirk of mine. Strange to say, I would prefer a wife who wants me in her bed."

Tywin chides Tyrion that his whores don’t want him in their bed. Tyrion is disappointing Tywin greatly. He thought this idea would please him. Oh, so Tywin is interested in Tyrion’s pleasure? Yeah, right. But the problem is that the North is not uncontested. There are the Greyjoys to deal with. Why not marry Tyrion to Asha Greyjoy? Because Balon Greyjoy is only interested in plunder and conquest. So, they won’t be popular. But if Tyrion and Sansa return to the North with a grandson of Eddard Stark’s, everyone will rise for them. Tyrion can get a child on Sansa, right? Tyrion angrily says he should be fine as he plants his seeds wherever.

"In the gutters and the ditches," finished Lord Tywin, "and in common ground where only bastard weeds take root. It is past time you kept your own garden." He rose to his feet. "You shall never have Casterly Rock, I promise you. But wed Sansa Stark, and it is just possible that you might win Winterfell."

Tyrion Lannister, Lord Protector of Winterfell. The prospect gave him a queer chill. "Very good, Father," he said slowly, "but there's a big ugly roach in your rushes. Robb Stark is as capable as I am, presumably, and sworn to marry one of those fertile Freys. And once the Young Wolf sires a litter, any pups that Sansa births are heirs to nothing."

But Tywin isn’t concerned. You see, he has a little secret he hasn’t told anyone yet. Robb Stark has married Jeyne Westerling. This news stuns Tyrion as he thinks that Robb left the Freys for Gawen Westerling’s daughter. Kevan confirms the report that it’s Jeyne and adds some worldbuilding details that Gawen Westerling married a lowborn woman named Sybell Spicer. Her grandfather was a trader, and her grandmother was a maegi from the east. But that bloodline is so impure and not noble.

Having once married a whore, Tyrion could not entirely share his uncle's horror at the thought of wedding a girl whose great grandfather sold cloves. Even so . . . A sweet child, Ser Kevan had said, but many a poison was sweet as well. The Westerlings were old blood, but they had more pride than power. It would not surprise him to learn that Lady Sybell had brought more wealth to the marriage than her highborn husband. The Westerling mines had failed years ago, their best lands had been sold off or lost, and the Crag was more ruin than stronghold. A romantic ruin, though, jutting up so brave above the sea. "I am surprised," Tyrion had to confess. "I thought Robb Stark had better sense."

Tywin says that Robb is sixteen, and Kevan says that Robb chose Jeyne’s honor over his own. Tyrion thinks maybe just y’know leave her as a single mom with a bastard. The Westerlings were going to lose everything: their lives, their lands, their castle.

Tywin thinks that Jeyne is her mother’s daughter and Robb his father’s son, and this causes Tyrion’s hackles to rise. Tywin should have been enraged by this betrayal. But he wasn’t. Back in the day, Tywin had gone some mass murder on the Reynes and Tarbecks. Afterwards, a song called “The Rains of Castamere” was written. When Lord Farman had been a pain in Tywin’s ass, he sent a singer to Faircastle to sing the song, and Lord Farman desisted. The ruined castles of the Reynes and Tarbecks served as further evidence of the power of Casterly Rock and what awaited those who defied the Lannisters. Tyrion asks aloud why the Westerlings hadn’t taken the meaning of Castamere, correctly.

According to Tywin, they were aware of Castamere which … foreshadowing. But Tyrion has a final question.

"Could the Westerlings and Spicers be such great fools as to believe the wolf can defeat the lion?"

Every once in a very long while, Lord Tywin Lannister would actually threaten to smile; he never did, but the threat alone was terrible to behold. "The greatest fools are ofttimes more clever than the men who laugh at them," he said, and then, "You will marry Sansa Stark, Tyrion. And soon."

And that is the synopsis of ASOS, Tyrion III. I know that this seems like a lesser chapter after we just covered Samwell I, but boy do I love a good small council scene, and this entire chapter is a small council scene. So, I am DOWN. What did you think, ser?

Depth

This chapter makes me think of the opening scene of Willy Wonka, where all the kids are dancing around in the candy store eating all the treats and singing about how awesome Willy Wonka is, and then it cuts to the protagonist Charlie standing alone outside, with his nose pressed up against the window, desperately watching what he can’t have. That’s Tyrion in this chapter: no longer a player, watching the game of thrones from the outside. Structurally, Tyrion III works a lot like Tyrion’s chapters in ACOK: showing us the nitty-gritty of politicians at work, covering an incredible amount of ground in terms of plot. This is the flipside to Catelyn II, which I described as a narrative hub through which so many different storylines pass. Same goes for Tyrion III, but while Catelyn II was about the downfall of the Starks and Tullys, this chapter is about the triumph of the Lannisters and the Tyrells, as they cement their control of Westeros.

And much like ASOS, Catelyn II’s main character was Robb Stark and not Catelyn Stark, this chapter’s main character is Tywin Lannister and not Tyrion Lannister. The difference here is that Catelyn's powerlessness was rooted in her action in freeing Jaime Lannister and committing light treason. In contrast, Tyrion has done everything his father wanted. And yet he is powerless in this chapter, because to paraphrase Tolkien, There is only one Lord of the Realm, only one who can bend the realm to his will. And he does not share power. The powerlessness of Tyrion, Cersei and the rest of the small counselors is the point of this chapter. Read a certain way, this is Tywin Lannister thrilling in the fact that everyone has to cringe and play the part of lickspittle to him. They know who butters their bread, and land and money is at stake. The problem is that his two children are not getting their bread buttered. They’re being treated like children of a disappointed dad who is telling them what their punishment rewards will be.

• Musical chairs
  • To compare this to another Catelyn chapter: her first one in ACOK started with a close-up of Robb’s crown as he adjusted it nervously on his head
  • This chapter starts with a close-up of the Hand chain around Tywin’s neck, the glitter of gold, the Lannisters’ favorite color, representing economic wealth as well as political power–often the same thing in this chapter
  • But it’s first and foremost a symbol of Tywin’s rise to power, which has gone hand in hand (so to speak) with Tyrion’s fall
  • Now it’s Tywin greeting the Small Councillors one by one, with all the smoothness of a practiced politician
  • He’s also glad-handing the lords of the Reach, his fellow winners of the Battle of Blackwater–according to the narrative that cuts Tyrion out
  • Tywin claims the king’s place at the head of the table. I love that no one even bothers to ask where Joffrey is. It’s clear who’s in charge here
  • Tyrion sits at the foot of the table, all the better to stare down his dad. They’re like mirror images, two halves of a whole: I’m you writ small
  • George describes each of the Lords of the Reach in turn. We haven’t spent much time with Mace Tyrell, nor Paxter Redwyne and Mathis Rowan
  • They’re strangers to Tyrion as much as to us. “New players,” as he thinks; the game board has been shuffled around, made hilariously literal in the scramble for chairs. That’s politics for ya: never-ending musical chairs
  • There’s no room for Tyrion anymore. He’s like a puppet who has learned to see the strings, but still has to dance. The wound he took in service of the Lannister cause only makes everyone uncomfortable to look at him
  • Mace and Paxter act all friendly, but as with the Tyrell women Sansa meets, the friendliness is a facade, with thorns underneath
  • Same goes for Cersei, papering over her own conduct in ACOK by “making pious noises,” the very picture of noble feminity
  • Their victory would’ve been unthinkable without Tyrion’s chain, but it’s the Hand chain that counts here, and Tywin took it away from him
  • As Tyrion thinks bitterly, Renly’s ghost is getting all the credit. People prefer a phantom, a shadow on a wall, to a disfigured dwarf
  • Lest we think this was all out of Tyrion’s control, though, George lingers on the description of Pycelle, looking so much older and less impressive without his beard. Tyrion stares at him without remorse
  • Pycelle is venal and corrupt, of course; he’s betrayed his oaths countless times. But Tyrion never took into account what would happen when his father returned to King’s Landing. He made the classic political mistake of assuming he would always have his authority
  • At Tyrion’s trial, Pycelle and others mix lies with truth to bring Tyrion down. Tyrion is a victim of slander, but he’s so certain that he can’t be loved that he never bothered to try and take control of the narrative
  • He made enemies, and now those enemies no longer have to fear him. As Machiavelli would say, if you’re going to make a move against someone, be sure to do it in such a way as to remove their ability to strike back
  • Bingo, and that’s Tyrion’s fault: he can’t mercilessly slaughter the Reynes and Tarbecks like Tywin or make them into friends like Robert.
  • By occupying that middle political ground, Tyrion looks cruel and weak -- even if it is Pycelle.
  • On that note, Pycelle was and remains the weakest member of the small council, and as you’ve pointed out: he was the Lannister loyalist in the small council.
  • Sitting in session are the real dangers to Lannister power in the realm: Varys and Littlefinger.
  • Tyrion came to rely too much on Varys as he admitted in ACOK, and Littlefinger became too indispensable to Tywin by securing the Tyrell alliance.
  • And yet these individuals couldn’t be touched by Tyrion. He took out the only true Lannister loyalist (crony) on the small council.
  • As a result, he is utterly isolated in the small council with people who are indifferent at best to Tyrion, utterly loathe him at worst.
• The North
  • Cersei wants to start with the wedding arrangements. Tywin insists on starting with the war, but ironically, his war strategy is all about wedding arrangements–namely, the Red Wedding. Sneaky work by George there!
  • Varys’ smile is like silk, and his words are too, obsequious and flattering as ever. He delivers his report on the Battle of Duskendale
  • We first saw the setup for this calamity in ACOK, when Roose sent Robett Glover and Helman Tallhart to Duskendale, supposedly on Robb’s orders
  • Then Tywin told us in Tyrion I that he’d sent Randyll Tarly and Gregor Clegane out to deal with those Northmen; as we said in our episode on that chapter, Tywin and Roose are already working together
  • Between that and the Ruby Ford, as we’ll see later, Roose ensures that he and the Freys will have Robb well outnumbered for the Red Wedding
  • Now we see how this event is interpreted within the political community, when the endgame can’t actually be discussed out loud
  • Paxter Redwyne chimes in to claim it as a victory for Joffrey. Tyrion thinks that Joffrey had nothing to do with it, which is true, but irrelevant
  • What matters in political terms is the narrative being set up, one of righteous victory for the legitimate monarch, rather than a series of one-sided ambushes arranged via espionage
  • Littlefinger and Mathis Rowan draw our attention to Robb himself, who didn’t take part in the battle any more than Joffrey did
  • Tywin delivers the news that Robb is back in Riverrun. Mace Tyrell declares that he’ll next move north. That’s what I would do!
  • Tyrion is infuriated by that, and again, I get why. Mace’s smug arrogance is obnoxious considering how thin his military resume actually is
  • Then again, Mace isn’t exactly outlining a military strategy here. He’s just acknowledging an obvious political reality: no king without a kingdom
  • Catelyn said the same to Robb: you have to go home and deal with the Ironborn, that’s priority one
  • So I think Tyrion’s spite here has more to do with how he’s being treated. He’s the one whose reputation is being dismissed along with Robb’s
  • Again, absolutely correct. Mace is doing that political thing and stating the obvious, making it seem profound.
  • But you’re right that this is what Catelyn told Robb to do. There’s really no other option at this point!
  • But there’s also something else: this small council scene reminds of Ned occupying the role for the first time in AGOT when he thinks:
    • He remembered what Robert had told him in the crypts below Winterfell. I am surrounded by flatterers and fools, the king had insisted. Ned looked down the council table and wondered which were the flatterers and which the fools. (AGOT, Eddard IV)
  • Ned thought he knew which was which. Turns out he was likely wrong as one of the fools (Littlefinger) turned out to be a flatterer.
  • Here, though, it’s hard to distinguish the fools and flatterers. Certainly, Pycelle and the High Septon remain lickspittles and fools. But the others? Littlefinger and Varys do flattery still. But what about the Reach Lords? What about Mace?
  • That’s where I think Mace is somewhat aware of his reputation and plays to type.
  • I think that Mace is aware of how Tyrion feels he’s been slighted for his conduct during the Battle of the Blackwater.
  • So, Redwyne talks about the great victory for Joffrey which really salts Tyrion’s festering wound over his basic unacknowledgement about the Blackwater.
  • And then Mace jumps in later, talking about what he would do, great military mind that he is.
  • I’m not quite sure that this is quite the choreographed dance that Tyrion observes later about his father and his uncle, but I do think there is some pre-planning at work here too.
  • Tyrion correctly points out (in his mind) that Mace Tyrell has a rather diffident military record, having only “won” because Randyll Tarly won the battle way ahead of him at Ashford and then besieging Storm’s End to no effort until Ned Stark came.
  • This will be controversial, but I want to talk for a moment about why Mace Tyrell’s bare minimum effort during Robert’s Rebellion was smart politically.
  • Had Mace Tyrell ruthlessly pressed his attack on Robert Baratheon or had taken Storm’s End, it’s unlikely he would have been forgiven by Robert.
  • Considering that Mace had 80-100,000 soldiers at Storm’s End, he could have taken the castle by force.
  • Instead, he hung out, and by hanging out and not doing much, he made it so that he would win out if Aerys won or not lose so hard if Robert won.
  • As it turned out, Mace paid no consequences for supporting Aerys, and yet has the ability to parlay his reputation -- though there are potential consequences yet to be seen in ASOIAF.
  • But speaking of the Ironborn, now we return to a thread left dangling in ACOK: Balon Greyjoy’s offer of an alliance to the Lannisters
  • Cersei, being Cersei, just wants everyone to bend the knee to her and hers, now if not sooner
  • Tywin is a cooler head–at least in terms of his performance in council. He points out that the Ironborn currently have a strong military position
  • I love that the lords of the Reach couldn’t give less of a shit about the North. The reader’s been all caught up in the drama over Winterfell, because that’s where we started the story, that’s where a lot of the core characters are from, and we saw the Ironborn invasion firsthand
  • But from Paxter Redwyne’s perspective, the North is a barren wasteland. It’s basically how many people south of the Wall view the wildlings
  • And honestly, I get it! The North is comparatively poor save the Manderlys, and even they don’t pose much of a competitive threat to the Reach
  • They’re geographically distant, culturally and ethnically distinct. Who needs ‘em? Paxter is accidentally making the case for Northern independence, albeit in terms of the Greyjoy occupation
  • Plus, the Ironborn have ships. Paxter’s all about ships. Couldn’t we use the Ironborn longships to assault Dragonstone and finish off Stannis?
  • Tywin points out, though, that Balon’s already fighting the Northmen for them. Why give up anything? This is a sensible point, and shows how foolish Balon’s strategy was: he should’ve sent this letter before invading
  • But as Tyrion realizes, there’s a deeper layer here that Tywin is keeping hidden, something to do with those letters he was writing in Tyrion I
  • As rereaders, we know it’s the Red Wedding, and when Tywin says they should do nothing and wait for a better opportunity to present itself, he’s not just advocating the Daoist principle of inaction like he’s Qui-Gon Jinn
  • Tyrion’s smart enough to realize that there must be a specific better option, but he doesn’t have enough information to realize that the better option is Roose Bolton, and his price is the Wardenship, legitimization for Ramsay, and a bride for Ramsay they can all pretend is a Stark
  • Beyond the Roose Bolton card, Tywin has plans of his own as he’ll reveal later in the chapter: he’ll send Tyrion and Sansa north to put the North under Lannister control.
  • This is wheels within wheels conspiring on Tywin’s part: not lifting a finger to take out the Starks, keeping the Ironborn cut out of the new regime.
  • He’s already plotting betrayal of his newly-minted co-conspirator!
  • I hate Tywin Lannister, but this is genius in a completely cynical and evil way.
  • One thing that strikes me about all of this is that in Tywin’s scheme, half of the realm remains in perpetual warfare for years.
  • More dead northmen, ironmen, rivermen: these are added to the plus column of Tywin’s register.
  • So, admire the cynical genius, hate that it’s all about killing more people.
• The Vale
  • Tywin then shifts the conversation to Lysa and the Vale. You can imagine him looking down at Westeros, like Stannis and his table on Dragonstone
  • While the North has been an active fighting opponent of the current regime, the Vale has been more a potential opponent so far
  • As Tywin says, Lysa is the widow of Jon Arryn, who was conspiring with Stannis before he died. She’s also related to the Starks
  • The knights of the Vale don’t like the Lannisters, and are pissed off about Jaime getting the title Warden of the East. Unlike the North, their armies haven’t been depleted by war, nor have their plentiful natural resources
  • But Lysa has neglected to intervene. Mace Tyrell has his misogynistic explanation that women have no stomach for violence; his own mother demonstrates otherwise, as does Cersei right here in this room
  • The first time reader has seen Lysa declare that she’s afraid of risking her son in war with the Lannisters, and prefers to hide in isolation
  • Tyrion angrily points out that she had him imprisoned and almost executed; he wants to follow up on his plan to reduce the Vale to a wasteland, only now with the crown’s soldiers rather than the clansmen
  • Mace is a decent enough politician to keep smiling, but Tyrion can sense the scorn when Mace tells him to leave the fighting to fighters
  • Once again, Mace is a hypocritical prick who nevertheless has a point. It’s very unlikely that Tyrion would make it through the Bloody Gates and up the Giant’s Lance, even if these lords gave him literally all their men
  • This isn’t a sober well-considered strategy on Tyrion’s part. It’s a personal vendetta carried out on a colossal scale, and it would result in death, dismemberment, and economic ruin for thousands of people who had nothing whatsoever to do with his unjust imprisonment
  • There’s a reason George has Tyrion compare it to his desire to strangle Cersei. He really is his father’s son; this is Lannister dysfunction at work
  • Moreover, Tywin has a plan to win the Vale without a fight: send in Littlefinger, who says he’ll marry Lysa and convince her to bend the knee
  • As usual, Littlefinger delights in being crude, in contrast to the fake flattery practiced by Varys and the lords of the Reach
  • Cersei joins in, calling Lysa a cow, her internalized misogyny hard at work. For Littlefinger, I think it’s more about pushing the envelope of what he can get away with, like his response to Tyrion mentioning Jon Arryn’s killer:
    • “True killer? I confess, you make me curious.”
  • And he can get away with this because his brand new shiny title of Lord of Harrenhal makes him a suitable match for the Lady of the Eyrie
  • We make fun of Littlefinger a lot here on the NotACast (and for good reason), but credit where credit is due: this is one hell of a move
  • He’s enhancing his own power, getting out of King’s Landing so the Lannisters can’t keep tabs on him, while seeming to stay in their service
  • The High Septon supports the plan, as does Kevan–and Tyrion knows that Kevan’s only here to speak for Tywin. This was arranged beforehand, he realizes; politics is performance, after all, and the unofficial pre-meeting is often more crucial than the official meeting
  • But Tyrion wasn’t in on it, and it doesn’t seem like the lords of the Reach were, either. I love the bit where Mace and Paxter glance at each other as Littlefinger reveals his plan. They look down on guys like him, and are only now realizing he’s a legit player they have to take seriously
  • It’s like suddenly, a lightbulb went on in their minds, and they see the grandson of a Braavosi rising as Lord of Harrenhal and Protector of the Vale.
  • If Mace is really thinking hard here, he has to see the historical parallel in an upjumped individual lord putting himself into one of the most powerful positions in Westeros.
  • Mace’s ancestor Harlen Tyrell was once a steward, a servant of the Gardener Kings, but when the Gardener line was extinguished on the Field of Fire, Aegon raised Highgarden’s steward Harlen up as Lord of Highgarden and Lord Paramount of the South.
  • Now Littlefinger is doing similarly, rising from service to kings to becoming Lord Protector of the Vale if his plan works.
  • And it will work. Tywin, Kevan and Littlefinger have made all the arrangements ahead of time.
  • But they never thought that Littlefinger made his own arrangements ahead of time too -- with Lysa.
  • Littlefinger understands the interplay between hard and soft power, between material reality and symbols
  • He can pivot from the seemingly empty title of Lord of Harrenhal to very real political power in the Vale; that dance is also how he’s operated as master of coin, as we learned in Tyrion’s chapters in ACOK
  • Speaking of the master of coin, my favorite part of Littlefinger’s plan is sticking Tyrion with that job. It’s such a wonderfully petty way of getting back at Tyrion for manipulating him with the whole “1-2-3” thing
  • It’s technically a promotion from Tyrion’s current unemployed status, but it’s also such a humiliating demotion from (acting) Hand of the King
  • The lords of Westeros don’t bother with finance; that’s grubby and tacky, a job for “brow-beaten bookkeepers,” to borrow from Olenna on the show
  • So as Littlefinger climbs the ladder, Tyrion falls down it, banging his head on every rung. He used to spend money; now he can only count it
  • Oh, but I think this is even more subtlety at work in Littlefinger suggesting Tyrion as Master of Coin.
  • Surely, Littlefinger is poking Tyrion by suggesting his “reward” as a servant position rather than acting Hand of the King. But there’s more at work here.
  • One of the things we covered all the way back in AGOT, Eddard IV is Littlefinger’s debt scheme.
  • As Tyrion will note later as Hand of the King:
    • Petyr Baelish had not believed in letting gold sit about and grow dusty, that was for certain, but the more Tyrion tried to make sense of his accounts the more his head hurt. It was all very well to talk of breeding dragons instead of locking them up in the treasury, but some of these ventures smelled worse than week-old fish.
  • As we talked about back in Eddard IV, Littlefinger concocted a deferred interest scheme whereby debt was created and then layered with more debt, compounding the interest and the amount the crown owed.
  • But for the moment, the crown’s finances are somewhat in order even with a staggering amount of debt -- created by Littlefinger, worsened by the war.
  • So, what’s a gambler like Littlefinger to do? Why, GTFO town.
  • And when the debts are called, it won’t be Littlefinger who will be blamed. Oh no. He was up in the Vale bringing Robert Arryn and the Vale back to the King’s Peace.
  • It was Tyrion’s fault that creditors call in the crown’s debts. It was Tyrion’s fault that the Crown can’t get new loans from banks or merchant houses.
  • That, I think, is Littlefinger’s ultimate revenge scheme against Tyrion: he becomes a massively powerful lord while Tyrion reaps the consequences of his intentionally bad stewardship of the realm’s finances.
  • All of this while Littlefinger was likely also plotting to frame Tyrion for Joffrey’s murder -- Penny and Oppo were in Essos at the time. Littlefinger was probably working to get them to Westeros for Joffrey’s wedding with the intent to provoke Tyrion and make him look like a murder suspect.
  • You really get the sense that Littlefinger not only wanted to get Tyrion killed, but by this point, he wanted him to die with incredible dishonor.
  • It’s genius. It’s cynical. It’s evil. It’s so Littlefinger.
• Dorne
  • The next location on the big mental map of Westeros here doesn’t wait its turn, but elbows its way to the front, and for good reason
  • Dorne acts as a disruptive presence within the Lannister-Tyrell coalition, as we see play out in this chapter even before any Dornishmen arrive
  • So far in the story, the Martells have played a background role at best. That’s about to change, and old wounds will be brought to light
  • Mace Tyrell is furious at even the thought that the Dornishmen coming to the capital might be traveling through the Reach
  • As Tyrion thinks, there’s literally no reason for them to do that when they can cross the Boneway and link up with the kingsroad in the Stormlands
  • Sunspear is in the far east of Dorne, after all. Why would dignitaries from there loop all the way around through the Reach? Makes no damn sense!
  • But that doesn’t matter to Mace. What matters is bad blood. Tyrion mentions both the historical and personal beefs. The former: wars, ranging from raids to conquests, between the Reach and Dorne for centuries. The latter: Oberyn Martell crippled Willas Tyrell, Mace’s son and heir
  • Both matter, because the historical reinforces and gives context to the personal. It’s what turns an isolated incident into part of a pattern
  • Even though Dorne is now part of the Seven Kingdoms, we know that many noble houses in the Reach haven’t forgotten the old way:
    • He was a man of the Reach, and the Dornish were his ancient foes, as the tapestries at Old Oak bore witness. Arys only had to close his eyes to see them still. Lord Edgerran the Open-Handed, seated in splendor with the heads of a hundred Dornishmen piled round his feet. The Three Leaves in the Prince's Pass, pierced by Dornish spears, Alester sounding his warhorn with his last breath. Ser Olyvar the Green Oak all in white, dying at the side of the Young Dragon. Dorne is no fit place for any Oakheart.
  • Willas’ injury inflamed those old grievances for his father. Maybe it’s also about avoiding his own guilt, judging from what Oberyn says later:
    • “If any were to blame, it was his fool of a father. Willas Tyrell was green as his surcoat and had no business riding in such company. The Fat Flower thrust him into tourneys at too tender an age, just as he did with the other two. He wanted another Leo Longthorn, and made himself a cripple."
  • Either way, it’s a crack in the foundation of the glorious eternal western alliance, and when Oberyn shows up unexpectedly in person rather than his “patient, prudent, and gouty” brother Doran, he does everything he can to break that foundation down. But not because he resents the Tyrells
  • His beef is with the Lannisters, which is where this situation gets even dicier from Tywin’s perspective
  • Tyrion made a deal with Dorne in ACOK–not even for active military support, just to keep them from joining Renly
  • To get that much, he had to give up Myrcella, a council seat, and those who spilled Martell blood at the end of Robert’s Rebellion
  • Problem is, those were Tywin’s men, namely Amory Lorch and Gregor Clegane. So Tywin’s in the absurd position of enforcing justice against himself, which as we’ll see later in the book, he has no intention of doing
  • This is where Tyrion’s bitter, bored POV really shines, because he just gets to sit back and watch everyone in the room swallow Dad’s hypocrisy
  • Tywin says Doran is coming to get the justice Robert denied him…and how would Robert have gotten justice? Maybe doing something about you, Tywin, the guy who presented him with the half-Martell baby bodies?
  • Marriage is what’s supposed to get everyone past all this: turning these three families into “one great house” via Joffrey and Myrcella’s weddings
  • Mace can yell it’s his daughter’s wedding, but it’s also Tywin’s grandson’s wedding–it’s a leveling effect designed to cool off the passions of war, and replace them with the passion of pumpin’ out heirs and spares
  • Doesn’t work, though. The Tyrells murder Joffrey at his wedding, Cersei turns on Margaery after Tywin’s death, and down in Dorne, Arianne Martell tries to crown Myrcella, in part to start a war with the Lannisters. As of the end of ADWD, this alliance is hanging by a thread
  • The enmities of the past should remain there, would you not agree, my lord? So says Kevan Lannister.
  • And yet, fast-forwarding to the Oberyn/Gregor duel: Oberyn states his correct theory that Tywin ordered the murders of Elia and her children as a result of the past:
    • “Your father is not a man to forget such slights. He taught that lesson to Lord and Lady Tarbeck once, and to the Reynes of Castamere. And at King’s Landing, he taught it to my sister.” (ASOS, Tyrion IX)
  • Elia was murdered, because Tywin couldn’t let the “injustice” of Rhaegar marrying Elia, rather than Cersei remain in the past.
  • For Tywin, the past should only remain in the past so long as it’s convenient for his plots and schemes.
  • But when it’s past slights against the Lion Lord, they have to be rectified -- with blood.
• The spoils of war
  • So now the room’s all tense. How do we make everyone happy again? By handing out goodies, of course, that’s how you play the game
  • To make the winners get along, you need some losers to tear apart for scraps. In this case, the losers are everyone who fought for Stannis
  • It’s representative of Westerosi political economy as a whole. This is a pre-industrial agrarian society; power is rooted in the land
  • And it’s a zero-sum game, because Westeros isn’t growing and you can only share so much. Eventually, if you slice the land too small, each individual square won’t be productive enough to support the landlords
  • So the only way to redistribute land is to disinherit the current owners, and civil war provides the perfect opportunity to do that
  • As we see with The Sworn Sword and the Blackwoods v. the Brackens in ADWD, every lord has demands at the ready, just waiting for a chance
  • Now there are plenty of “orphans and castles” for the taking, as a bunch of lords died fighting for Stannis, and a handful more are still with him
  • In particular, Alester Florent, one of the most powerful Lords of the Reach…or at least, he used to be. Now the Tyrells take it all
  • That’s a big fucking deal, because the Florents have always been the Tyrells’ primary rivals for power in the Reach
  • Now their castle and lands belong to Garlan. He’s gone from a second son to a mighty lord in his own right; his firstborn will have a rich inheritance
  • It’s a cadet branch of House Tyrell that will allow Highgarden to further intimidate any other rogue vassals. Don’t wanna end up like Alester!
  • Other Lords of the Reach gain other tracts of land…with the notable exception of Paxter Redwyne. His power works differently than the rest
  • Paxter is a merchant as well as a noble lord. His power is still rooted in the land, in that he grows grapes on the Arbor, but he doesn’t need more land
  • What he needs is profits, profits he can then invest in more ships, higher quality produce, bribes to foreign customs officials, etc
  • So what he wants from the government is a big ol’ tax cut. That’s a glimpse of the corporate future right there, folks, the world we live in now
  • Well, of course, when the tax money is going to be wasted by Robert or embezzled by Littlefinger, doesn’t Paxter Redwyne have a point. Gotta starve the beast … maybe.
  • No, I kid. It’s clear that Paxter doesn’t care about the realm’s finances and wasteful government spending. He’s only out to enhance his own fortunes.
  • Your point about the zero-sum game is an apt one. These men might look like proper lords, but, in reality, they’re feasting crows.
  • And when you get right down to it -- these are ill-gotten gains. The Reachmen don’t really care about whether Joffrey is the legitimate king or not.
  • They care that they can profit in lands, money and status by hitching their wagon to the Lannister cause.
  • It is kind of interesting to look at this dynamic of Mace’s second son getting Brightwater Keep as a variation of what happened between the Starks and the Karstark of ye olde northern times.
  • Maybe if Garlan survives the war, his descendants will become the Gyrells? The Garells? I don’t know. I’m just riffing.
  • Of note is that we don’t learn where these lesser tracts of land are granted to the Tarlys, Oakhearts and Hightowers.
  • There are a few Reachmen who switched their support from Renly to Stannis and fought for Stannis as the Blackwater
  • My guess is that the lands of the Green and Red Fossoways, the Mullendores, the Varners and Willums likely had some of their lands parceled out and given to these new Lannister loyalists.
  • If so, I think it’s interesting that Tywin is keeping Reacher point centered on the Reach -- i.e. he’s not granting lands to these lords in the Stormlands, Riverlands or Crownlands.
  • In a way, Tywin is trying to keep the Reachmen from becoming overmighty vassals to the crown by expanding their power beyond the borders of the Reach.
  • And in this, Tywin probably wanted to check the growing power of House Tyrell -- especially if they were going to get Brightwater and Mace’s grandson would sit the Iron Throne.
  • Again, probably smart politics.
• Varys’ reports
  • Next up to speak is Varys the Spider, weaving his webs with extra care. The first time reader doesn’t know yet about his plans for Young Grift, but we’ve already seen him conspiring with Illyrio in book one
  • So he has an interest in deflecting Lannister attention away from the Targaryen restoration brewing across the Narrow Sea until he’s ready
  • But he can’t just say nothing about Daenerys, because that’ll look real suspicious when the rumors start trickling in without his help
  • So instead, he frames her journey as a tall tale, the usual sailor’s bullshit you have to take with a grain of salt: a three-headed dragon in Qarth!
  • Varys also makes sure to only mention the dragons after he’s mentioned a kraken off the Fingers, so it all just seems like a useless grab-bag of speculation and nonsense that the Lannisters need not care about
  • It works like a charm. Tywin immediately moves onto the case of his nephew Tyrek, who’s still missing. As we’ve said before, Varys himself is the most likely candidate for the kidnapper; he deflects by fake crying
  • It’s worth noting, though, that Varys’ approach can backfire. When Kevan reports that some of the gold cloaks who deserted during the battle have returned to the barracks, Varys suggests sending them to the Wall
  • After all, there are reports of wildlings on the move! But Mace Tyrell laughs that off, comparing it to the krakens and dragons. Varys is now the eunuch who cried wolf. He’s made everything seem like a baseless rumour, and so he can’t get the lords to take any of it seriously even when they should
  • Putting it in the context of Varys and Illyrio’s plot, I do think this is the rare moment where Varys is trying to work for the “good of the realm.”
  • His plans to unseat the Lannisters don’t really involve the Starks or the North. But he’d rather Aegon didn’t have to deal with a massive wildling invasion after securing the Iron Throne in the South.
  • So, send a couple hundred or maybe even a thousand gold cloaks to the Night’s Watch? That might hold off the wildlings and prevent Westeros from being engulfed by a massive wildling invasion.
  • Meanwhile, Varys removes the bad apples in the gold cloaks that might cause Aegon trouble or run away from the next fight.
  • It’s win-win. But Varys’ one good deed doesn’t get approved.
  • Cersei, of course, wants the deserters killed for endangering her sweet precious Joffrey, despite the fact that it was her pulling Joff back during the battle that led to the mass desertions in the first place
  • Tywin’s no better. While maybe not as bloodthirsty as Cersei, his approach is always rooted in the spectacle of fearsome acts, so he wants the deserters’ knees broken as a warning to the rest
  • And somehow, he keeps getting worse! Tyrion thinks back to his time on the Wall with LC Mormont; this is often the source of Tyrion’s most sympathetic impulses. He finally follows through on what he promised the Old Bear, telling Tywin the Watch is under strength and needs more men
  • But Tywin couldn’t possibly care less. He would prefer the Watch to be wiped out and the wildlings to invade the North, because that would screw over both the Starks and the Greyjoys
  • For me, this is representative of the overall failure of Tywin’s worldview. He’s thinking purely about the short-term detriment of his enemies, rather than the long-term benefit of the realm as a whole
  • His argument is that the North claims independence, so why should the Iron Throne help them out? Well, because the Iron Throne is claiming that the North is not independent and that Tywin is still legally in charge!
  • You’re kind of proving the North’s point for them, Tywin: if you won’t help them out in their moment of need, what are they getting out of this relationship? Why should they ever bend the knee to you again?
  • If Tywin’s going to claim the title of Protector of the Realm, he needs to act like it; otherwise, he’s just a warlord to whom the North owes nothing
  • This is exactly the argument Davos makes to Stannis: a king protects his people, or he is no king at all. You have to demonstrate what kind of ruler you would be; you have to save the kingdom to be worthy of it
  • And Stannis listens, which is probably his best moment; he passes the minimum test of governance that Tywin so thoroughly fails here
  • That’s a great point! Stannis defends the North despite the North not really recognizing his claim to the Iron Throne.
  • Tywin sees the North as “enemies”, so, again, more of their dead is his gain.
  • To return to the point briefly: one thing about Tywin’s plot is that it sounds an awful lot like the proposed idea for Varys and Illyrio with Young Griff.
  • Get everyone to fight each other, and then swoop in with Sansa to take it all when everyone is exhausted from war.
  • You’re absolutely right that this is short-term thinking. War has the power to destroy, and even when that destruction is justified, it’s still destruction.
  • This destruction isn’t justified. Tywin could send the gold cloaks to the Wall. Tywin could send half of his army to secure the Wall and still have more than enough manpower to conquer the North and Riverlands.
  • But he doesn’t. He can’t. He wants his enemies to suffer before he sweeps in to finish them off and restore the land under his own banner.
  • In this, Tyrion is an extension of Tywin. So is Cersei as Tywin will make clear in our final conversation piece.
• Lannisters alone
  • Finally, George kicks the extras to the curb and zeroes in on House Lannister, the dysfunctional institution at the heart of all the rest
  • Tyrion, naturally, is pretty pissed off that he got this new job sprung on him with no warning. Tywin says that he’s just doing what Tyrion asked, giving him important work, but this is clearly bullshit
  • What Tyrion wanted was recognition for the work he’d already done, not to be handed a pile of Littlefinger’s leftovers, and if Tywin was sincerely trying to mend fences with his son, they would’ve had a private conversation first. He wanted to surprise Tyrion, to bully him into line
  • You can see that in how Tywin tries to neg Tyrion into taking the job: what, you think you’re not good enough to count coppers?
  • But Tyrion, as on the question of the Night’s Watch, sticks to his better angels here, because he has a point to make: they cannot trust Littlefinger
  • His family’s response shows how much better he understands Littlefinger than they do. Cersei points out that he won Highgarden to their side. True, but the alternative was Stannis, who would execute Littlefinger on day one
  • Tyrion knows that the real reason Cersei trusts Littlefinger is that he sold her Ned Stark. What she doesn’t understand is that this was expedience (plus revenge for marrying Catelyn), not true loyalty
  • Cersei is usually 4-lines-of-coke level paranoid, so why doesn’t Littlefinger set off any alarm bells? For the same reason Tywin and Kevan aren’t afraid of him: because he comes from nothing, or practically nothing
  • He’s a weapon to turn on their enemies, like an intellectual version of the Mountain. If he has his own plans, they can’t possibly be threatened
  • They have Casterly Rock, the mountain of gold! But Tyrion knows that Littlefinger, somewhat like the Redwynes, works differently. He doesn’t dig gold from the ground; he generates it through investments and corruption
  • Tywin entrusts Littlefinger with the Vale because the alternative is, well, the lords of the Vale; Kevan speaks for his brother when he calls them dangerous and proud, not the kind of people they want to elevate
  • Littlefinger will bring the Vale into the fold, but the lords won’t accept him long-term, keeping them all busy; that way, the Lannisters win
  • What they’ve overlooked is that they’ve put Littlefinger literally above all of them. We see how this plays out in AFFC: they hate his ass, they want him gone, but it does not matter because he has Sweetrobin, and having control of The Arryn is really what counts in the Vale at the end of the day
  • That’s how Lysa keeps getting away with her bullshit up there; the lords were ready to go to war, but she wasn’t, and she has The Arryn
  • In the meantime, Littlefinger serves interests that overlap with his own. He dealt with the Tyrells in the Reach, but tells the Lannisters about the secret Tyrell plot to marry Sansa to Willas so Sansa stays in his orbit
  • This is the second half of the invisible game we talked about in Sansa II: the intelligence chain reaching from Sansa to Dontos to Littlefinger
  • This gives the Lannisters a temporary advantage. If the Lannisters had been put on the spot by the Tyrells asking for Sansa to come visit, they would’ve had to agree. Cersei would’ve refused, because Cersei loves pissing people off just as much as she does tormenting Sansa
  • She’s a tyrant at heart, and Tyrion patiently has to point out the realities of governing within a coalition during a civil war: if they piss off the Tyrells, they run the risk of driving them into Robb’s arms instead
  • That Tywin takes this possibility seriously is a sign of how dangerous Robb remains, even after the Blackwater made things much worse for him
  • He’s usually talked about as a military threat, but he’s a political threat as well, giving anyone still unhappy with the status quo a potential out
  • So instead, the Lannisters have to use subterfuge, and quickly before the Tyrells ask. Tywin proposes a double marriage, swapping his kids in to complete the set: Tyrion will marry Sansa, and Cersei will marry Willas
  • It’s interesting how differently the kids react. In the show, both are horrified and beg their father to reconsider; some terrific acting by all three
  • In the books, only Cersei is shocked and appalled, whereas Tyrion is a little uneasy maybe; he’s mostly just sick of his dad’s bullshit
  • I think this pretty clearly breaks down on gender lines. In Cersei’s last marriage, she was beaten and raped; she struck back and has been holding her head high ever since
  • Now she’s being reminded that she can call herself Queen Regent until she’s blue in the face, but her father wields authority over her body
  • Women gain power through men in this world; that’s worked out for Olenna, but it’s not working out for Cersei anymore
  • And while Kevan mutters some polite words about how young and fair she still is, and surely she doesn’t want to be alone forever, Tywin does not even indulge in the pretense that this is about Cersei’s well-being
  • The language emphasises the violence of control. Cersei’s cheek reddens like she’s been slapped, like how Robert slapped her
  • Tywin’s eyes seem to pin Cersei to her chair, like she’s an insect under glass, or a meal under his fork. She is meat, a resource to be used
  • There is an emotional dynamic at work here that goes beyond Tywin’s general ruthlessness. This is also about the twincest
  • This scene is as close as Tywin ever gets to admitting the truth that his precious golden twins have been fucking for years, and that, he, Tywin, has been fighting a war to keep their wretched spawn on the Iron Throne
  • He redirects his rage at Stannis, calling the accusation “disgusting slander,” and saying that Cersei’s new kids will prove him a liar
  • But I think his attitude hints that he thinks Cersei is the disgusting liar here, and while he can’t politically afford to ever say it, he’s furious that she and Jaime have put him in this position. Far as he’s concerned, she owes him
  • It’s a brutal reminder for Cersei that within the power structure, she’s a “brood mare,” as she puts it; her job is to bear children, not govern
  • I can’t help but sympathize, despite what a manifestly unfit ruler she is, and I think George uses Tyrion’s POV to guide us in that regard
  • On the one hand, Tyrion is munching popcorn as Tywin tears Cersei down. He loves this song! It’s the closest he can get to having his revenge on the sister who’s always treated him like shit, the sister who kidnapped Alayaya and (he thinks) tried to have him killed during the battle
  • He’s laughing on the inside at the image of Cersei packed off to Pyke, a miserable, uncomfortable rock that would further break her pride
  • Knowing his sister as well as he does, Tyrion knows that Willas would be a terrible match for her in terms of temperament, and finds that funny too
  • On the other hand, Tyrion has been on the receiving end of his father’s scorn so often that he also feels bad for Cersei in this moment
  • As he says, while part of him is laughing, the other part is weeping–same as his two heads during his dream of battle in ADWD. The comedy and tragedy masks, aka the human heart in conflict with itself
  • You are the queen, he thinks as she begs father’s leave to go. He ought to be begging your leave. It’s so sad that just for a moment, Tyrion realizes that he and Cersei could be allies against their father’s manipulations
  • But as he thinks, what could he even say in her defense? That she wants Jaime and that Jaime might kill Cersei’s new husband? That’s not exactly going to endear him to Dad. So he stays quiet, and waits for his turn
  • I love that point about Tywin basically admitting that Stannis is right. Never saw that before in this chapter, but I see it now!
  • Politically, there’s an even more devious reason for Tywin’s scheme to marry Cersei to Willas: it’s an instrument to undercut the Tyrells.
  • Sure, they’re “one house”, but so far, it’s only the Tyrells who have been able to knock down a wall to get into Tywin’s house via Margaery and Joffrey.
  • Now Tywin plans to knock down one of the Tyrell walls to get the Lannisters into the Tyrell duplex. Is this analogy confusing?
  • It’s quite fascinating here the political impulse at work in Cersei marrying Willas.
  • With Garlan named Lord of Brightwater Keep, he wouldn’t have a strong claim on Brightwater Keep.
  • Meanwhile, Loras is now in the Kingsguard, and he can’t inherit or marry either.
  • So, Tywin politically isolates Willas Tyrell as the sole heir to Highgarden and thinks he can slip Cersei in to extend Lannister dominance in the Reach.
  • Brightwater Keep and the Kingsguard might seem rewards for Garlan and Loras, but much like Euron’s gifts, Tywin’s are poisoned too.
  • It’s not unthinkable that Cersei might be past child-bearing age with Willas Tyrell. She might never bear children.
  • Who inherits Highgarden with Garlan in Brightwater, Loras in the Kingsguard and Margaery as queen?
  • Maybe a Lannister inherits? Maybe Willas Tyrell dies while Cersei lives, and Cersei becomes the Lady of Highgarden.
  • And just like that, the Lannisters control two of the largest, most powerful castles in Westeros and hold the paramountcy of the Reach and Westerlands.
  • But even if Cersei and Willas have children, you get the sense that Tywin has the same mindset that Olenna ascribes to Mace about why he wanted Margaery to marry Renly and then Joffrey:
    • The thought that one day he may see his grandson with his arse on the Iron Throne makes Mace puff up like . . . (a puff-fish).
  • The thought that a grandson of Tywin’s could become Lord Tyrell makes Tywin puff up like a puff fish too, but that’s not the only castle and paramountcy that Tywin has his sights set on.
  • Tywin’s hypocrisy is again in full flower here, as he declares that Tyrion visiting sex workers is weakness, like Tywin doesn’t do the same thing
  • Even worse is saying that it’s past time Tyrion was wed, skipping right over Tysha and the hell Tywin put her through for daring to love a Lannister
  • But as much as Tyrion still hates Tywin for that, and will in part kill him for it, he’s more focused now on the logistics of getting married
  • He’s beginning to realize that he has no long-term position within the Lannister coalition, leaving him permanently vulnerable to Cersei–and to Joffrey, which is potentially even worse once the king comes of age
  • So maybe he should get out while the getting is good, set himself up somewhere distant where his family can forget about him
  • Really, the obstacle for Tyrion isn’t the memory of Tysha. It’s the present reality of Shae. That’s one reason why he tries to weasel out of this
  • The other reason is that he’s uneasy about how young and innocent Sansa is. Not enough to stop him from being into her when they get married–just enough to know that he really shouldn’t be into her
  • Tywin steamrolls over even Tyrion’s mild objections. Is it cruel to deliver Sansa from Joffrey only to make her marry Tyrion? Who cares? This isn’t about Sansa’s happiness to Tywin–it’s about ensuring a male Stark heir to take over Winterfell, like you were saying earlier, and also probably about checking Tyrion’s future off his to-do list
  • Tyrion’s political instincts kick in here, and he tries to follow his father’s plans to their roots. Why not engage him to Asha? Because the Ironborn aren’t serious in Tywin’s eyes; the North will ultimately prefer a Stark
  • But wait, what about Robb? He’ll soon have kids that will outrank Sansa’s. After all, he’s engaged to a Frey! Now Tywin drops the bomb
  • As cynical as Tyrion has become, even he is taken aback by the news that Robb married a Westerling instead
  • I think it’s funny how Tyrion and Kevan are shocked for different reasons. Kevan just blusters on about how unorthodox this is, to marry a girl of such doubtful birth, whose great-grandfather was a common salesman
  • As you were saying about the Tyrells, all the noble families have scrappier ancestors if you go back far enough. They’re not literal gods, after all
  • I mean, as the story goes, Lann the Clever literally deceived Garth Greenhands into thinking that he was a trueborn son of Garth Greenhands to take some of the inheritance before playing a spook and scaring the Casterlys out of Casterly Rock. Not so noble origins!
  • Kevan mentions Davos (“that smuggler Stannis keeps”) as an example of this kind of unnatural mixing with the poors, but as Davos himself thought, give it a couple generations and his descendants would be intermarrying with the Velaryons, of cherished ancestry
  • Tyrion himself married a lowborn woman, so he knows class is no barrier to love–more of a cage that forms around love
  • His confusion has less to do with Jeyne’s mother’s side of things and more to do with the father’s: the Westerlings are proud but poor
  • Their castle is a ruin, Tyrion thinks, but a romantic ruin–which sums up his perspective on love these days. Power takes it all away from you
  • The news of Robb seems to reinforce that worldview. Robb lost the Freys for Jeyne’s honor, and Tyrion thinks Jeyne would’ve been better off with a bastard in her belly than with her whole family betraying Tywin
  • Tyrion knows how his father operates. He’s seen the violence meted out on both a personal and political level
  • Far as he’s concerned, Robb has just put his blushing bride in the firing line…but strangely, Tywin doesn’t seem angry at all
  • None of this makes sense to Tyrion. Have both his father and the Westerlings forgotten who Tywin Lannister is? Have they forgotten the Rains of Castamere? Surely they can’t think Robb will win the war now
  • I love how George sets this up, basically spelling out the Red Wedding while preserving plausible deniability so the audience will be surprised
  • It feels somewhat cheeky to mention that the end of this chapter and the memory Tyrion has of Lord Farman is our first mention of “The Rains of Castamere” in ASOIAF.
  • And it couldn’t have come at a more appropriate time. It happens right as we start to see more hints of Tywin’s true plans at work.
  • Tywin Lannister ruled the Westerlands through fear -- fear in both his actions, fear in his songs.
  • He’s controlled the narrative of the Westerlands and infected even the culture with his presence.
  • And the Rains of Castamere are about to seep to places farther away than the Westerlands.
  • The Westerlings aren’t afraid of suffering the fate of the Reynes and Tarbecks because Tywin cut them in on his plans for Robb
  • Tywin isn’t angry about the betrayal because there is no betrayal, and in fact, everything is proceeding according to his plans
  • So instead of scowling like usual, he threatens to smile, which is somehow more terrifying than a scowl ever could’ve been
  • We’ve been reminded throughout this chapter what a tight-fisted ruthless bastard Tywin is, how thoroughly he oversees his empire and how little he cares about the human beings caught up in his machine
  • So it’s haunting that this chapter ends with him on the verge of smiling. He’s a lion, after all, and he’s only smiling to show off his teeth

Foreshadowing/Groundwork

We’ll see Daven and Forley Prester laying siege to Riverrun in Jaime’s AFFC chapters.

Littlefinger will indeed marry Lysa in the Vale…though happy matrimony doesn’t last long!

The Dornishmen are reported to be coming to King’s Landing with three hundred in their number -- the same number that Lady Nymeria Sand takes with her up to King’s Landing as reported in TWOW, Arianne II.

Garlan Tyrell will return to the Reach to try and make good on his claim to Brightwater Keep. Unfortunately for him, Euron’s invasion takes precedence.

Theory/Discussion

Young Griff’s friends in the Reach: Tarly and Rowan

• For our end-discussion this week, I thought it might be fun to revisit something I wrote about some five years ago in a thirty-seven part series Blood of the Conqueror: namely, Young Grift’s “Friends in the Reach.”
• Among those eagerly anticipating TWOW, there remains the mystery of who Young Grift’s “Friends in the Reach” are.
• But first, let’s talk about where this phrase “friends in the Reach” comes from.
  • So, we’re at the Golden Company Corral outside of Volantis, and Young Grift declares that they’re going to go to Westeros.
  • Captain-General Harry Strickland begins raising objections which are answered by his men, and then he brings up the issue of the Lannisters and Tyrells:
    • "A Lannister woman," insisted the captain-general. "The bitch will have the Kingslayer at her side, count on that, and they will have all the wealth of Casterly Rock behind them. And Illyrio says this boy king is betrothed to the Tyrell girl, which means we must face the power of Highgarden as well."
  • Then the sellsword subordinate commander Laswell Peake puts in his idea about who holds power of Highgarden is:
    • "Even after a century, some of us still have friends in the Reach. The power of Highgarden may not be what Mace Tyrell imagines."
  • I think it’s important to say here that Laswell Peake might be full of shit. As a potential member of House Peake (I say “potential” because sellswords can choose their own surnames), what really does he know of the politics of the Reach?
    • Moreover, what he’s likely referring to are the traditional Reacher houses who supported the Blackfyres -- especially in the First Blackfyre Rebellion.
    • And those houses are:
      • House Peake
      • House Osgrey
      • House Ambrose
      • House Ball
      • House Costayne
    • Additionally, houses Oakheart and Hightower supported both sides during the First Blackfyre Rebellion.
  • The point I’m driving at is that among the known Reacher houses who supported the Blackfyres - the friends Laswell Peake is likely referring to - you probably don’t recognize most of the houses.
  • That’s because they’re either very minor in the story or exist as small houses by the start of the main story.
• Ultimately, I think Laswell Peake has an idealistic vision of houses who will rise up from the Reach who supported the Blackfyres previously.
• Most everyone in Westeros simply doesn’t give a shit about the Blackfyres in the year 301 AC.
• But that’s not to say that Young Grift won’t find sympathetic friends in the Reach -- just not the friends imagined by Laswell Peake, and these friends will rise for Young Grift for their own reasons rather than any historical allegiance to the Blackfyres.
• Two of the most prominent lords who might support Young Grift receive their reasons to support Young Grift in this very chapter
• Lord Mathis Rowan
  • In this chapter, we get these lines of dialogue by Tywin and Tyrion’s observations:
    • "Prince Doran comes at my son's invitation," Lord Tywin said calmly, "not only to join in our celebration, but to claim his seat on this council, and the justice Robert denied him for the murder of his sister Elia and her children."
      
      Tyrion watched the faces of the Lords Tyrell, Redwyne, and Rowan, wondering if any of the three would be bold enough to say, "But Lord Tywin, wasn't it you who presented the bodies to Robert, all wrapped up in Lannister cloaks?" None of them did, but it was there on their faces all the same. Redwyne does not give a fig, he thought, but Rowan looks fit to gag.
• Rowan looks fit to gag is an interesting reaction, because Mathis Rowan is outraged at the murder of Elia Martell and her children.
• And his outrage is in how brazen Tywin is acting about the deaths of Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon.
• Historically, Mathis Rowan was an ostensible Targaryen loyalist, serving alongside Mace during the Siege of Storm’s End during Robert’s Rebellion.
• There’s a potential implication that Mathis Rowan was not merely following his liege lord into the war and may have been a true Targ loyalist.
• Regardless of whether Mathis was a true Targ believer, when it’s time for the Reach Lords to receive their lords, there’s this note:
  • Lesser tracts were granted to Lord Rowan, and set aside for Lord Tarly, Lady Oakheart, Lord Hightower, and other worthies not present.
• Mace Tyrell reaped the best rewards for himself by having Garlan Tyrell named Lord of Brightwater Keep - something we’ll return to - but the other lords didn’t get as good of rewards as the others.
• Though it’s not clear that Mathis is upset by this, it is notable that Mace get the lionshare, and he’s getting the leavings.
• I think this is going to culminate for Mathis Rowan switching sides to Aegon in TWOW.
• As stated in the A World of Ice and Fire entry, when Mace Tyrell turns around and heads back to King’s Landing in AFFC, he leaves Mathis Rowan in charge of a token force besieging Stannis’ garrison at Storm’s End.
• And wouldn’t you know it, but Jon Connington’s next move is to take Storm’s End, and Aegon declares at the end of “The Griffin Reborn” that he will lead the attack.
• Imagine his pleasant surprise when the “son” of Rhaegar Targaryen appears over the walls of Storm’s End or is presented to Mathis Rowan outside of the castle itself.
• Moreover, the plan is to present Aegon not as a black dragon claimant to the Iron Throne but rather as a red dragon: the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell.
• For a possible Targaryen loyalist like Mathis Rowan, this deception will likely lead to him swearing for Aegon
• I think this moment in ASOS, Tyrion III serves as potent foreshadowing for Mathis to turn on Mace Tyrell and the Lannisters and declare for Aegon.
• And then there’s someone who will likely join up with Aegon for less noble reasons.
• Lord Randyll Tarly
  • Randyll Tarly is an enormous dick, and his reasons for joining up with Aegon are far less noble and much more grounded in perceived and actual slights and thefts of lands by Mace Tyrell.
  • As this chapter makes clear, Mace Tyrell has gone around claiming to have defeated Robert Baratheon at the Battle of Ashford when the reality is that Randyll Tarly’s vanguard won the battle before Mace Tyrell even showed up.
  • So far as we know, Randyll hasn’t voiced any discontent over Mace Tyrell’s valor-theft.
  • But I find it hard to believe that a man who treated Samwell so badly because he failed to live up to his toxic martial masculinity would not be steaming for years over Mace Tyrell’s bragging.
  • But this chapter also details the spoils of war for the Reacher Lord, and we find out how Mace plans to reward his son Garlan:
    • Lord Tywin was pleased to oblige. Brightwater Keep and all its lands and incomes were granted to Lord Tyrell's second son, Ser Garlan, transforming him into a great lord in the blink of an eye.
  • That seems fairly inconsequential at first glance, but there’s something that Tyrion fails to note here.
  • Though all of the Florents have been attainted due to their treason, there is one Florent who should inherit the castle: Melessa Florent.
  • She’s not attained, because she’s married to Randyll Tarly; so, by rights, Melessa should become the Lady of Brightwater Keep.
  • Or, in other words, Randyll Tarly should rule Brightwater Keep through his wife and pass the castle onto one of his heirs through Melessa.
  • And yet, Mace gets Tywin to grant the castle to Garlan Tyrell, depriving Randyll of what is his through marriage to Melessa Florent.
  • And to tie it all together: this is decided while Randyll Tarly is not present in King’s Landing.
  • As reported at the start of the chapter, Randyll is off in the Crownlands, having just fought a bloody battle against Robett Glover and Helman Tallhart!
• On the meta side of things, we know that George came up with the Blackfyres between ACOK and ASOS, and I think we’re seeing GRRM seeding the ground for Aegon’s rise in TWOW.
• With the Rowans and Tarlys at his side, alongside the Dornish, the Sparrows and others, Aegon stands a chance at defeating the Tyrell-Lannister alliance and sitting the Iron Throne for a few minutes before Dany arrives.
• So even if Laswell Peake doesn’t really have any “Friends in the Reach” in the traditional Blackfyre sense, he will end up having new Friends in the Reach in the form of the Rowans and Tarlys.

Conclusion

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• Join us next week for ASOS Catelyn III, in which the good times just keep on rolling for the Starks at Riverrun. Or a head rolls. I think the latter.