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Discussing Intel's Future, TSMC, AMD, Nvidia, and AI w/ Daniel Nenni (Patreon)

Published:
2024-05-11 02:18:49
Edited:
2024-05-11 02:28:53
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

Content

Broken Silicon's next episode will see the return of Daniel Nenni, founder of SemiWiki.com! We plan to heavily discuss Intel's current situaiton, if IFS can ever catch up to TSMC, future SAMSUNG Nodes, and upcoming AMD & Nvidia products. This will be a more professional and silicon-focused episode than usual, but still one where almost any question can be asked.

So, don't hold back! Your submissions below will heavily steer the focus of the conversation! Just make sure to use good grammar, be respectful, and be as concise as possible to have your submissions considered. You have until Sunday Morning US Central Time to submit!

Last Episode Daniel was on: https://youtu.be/8PVYOeHx8vA?si=rkfbDf8jX3Er3VT9

SemiWiki: https://semiwiki.com/

Daniel Nenni's Podcast: https://semiwiki.com/podcast/

Comments

KarbinCry

How valuable is MobilEye's real life driving data?

KarbinCry

Is Altera salvageable? Can it survive, and if so, do they have a better chance as part of Intel, or being spun off?

KarbinCry

Do you think $4bn revenue target for MI300 line is realistic? Could sluggish sales in Q1 ($600M) be due to AMD building up its supply chain and sales channel for MI300?

KarbinCry

Is Samsung improving its foundry offering? They are the first to GAA and have a 2nd gen GAA node, afaik, so perhaps they can leverage some kind of leveling effect from a switch to GAA?

Resident Mexican

As far as I know, GAAFETs are the next big step in silicon transistor technology, but how big of an impact will this have on current silicon design? Also what future technologies have you heard about being researched to be used in silicon transistor design?

Aiden Maltbie

Do you think that the US subsidies would have been (will be) more effective if one of the requirements was to get IFS development software to a higher standard. If so what would those standards be?

Trogdor

What would Intel need to do to make IFS more successful? Is it more of a technical challenge or gaining the trust of customers? Will IFS make the market overall more competitive?

Aiden Maltbie

Are we all just waiting for TSMC to unveil a new AI software and hardware (based loosely on all the various AI chips they manufacture) that can achieve rapid node shrinks that leave all competitors in the dust? /s felt like being a memelord

AI Generated Fish

Hi Tom & Daniel. Previously AMD was "dual sourcing" by using 6/7nm for older designs with cutting edge products being on newer nodes. With news that AMD will use Samsung 4nm for lower end products, can you talk about this and how it could affect their product offerings, pricing and volume moving forward?

AI Generated Fish

Intel is clearly losing in laptop in the consumer space but my understanding is enterprise is a huge part of the market and businesses seem hesitant to switch (the company I work for just issued new laptops with no AMD options). How much longer can they keep holding on in enterprise or is that more oem driven (we also switched from Lenovo to Dell)?

Lucas

Can any of your sources corroborate this talk of some unheard of Samsung 7nm LPH node for the Switch 2? How big of an impact might this have on performance/watt?

Benjamin Cannon

How much higher do you think the cost for Intel's nodes are currently (Intel 7, 4, 3) and will be in the future (Intel 20A, 18A, 14A) relative to TSMC/Samsung.

KarbinCry

How big is the advantage AMD gets by not using CoWoS advanced packaging whenever they can avoid it? From my research, they use ASE for organic interposer, LSI and even silicon interposer (with UMC making the silicon).

Benjamin Cannon

What are your thoughts on Intel 20A? Intel has said that it was production ready the first half of this year, but as far as I can tell, the Fab 52 and 62 that are dedicated to 20A aren't fully built yet.

10GHz Netburst

What is the biggest issue with Intel's fabs and why is it the lack of a third party IP and EDA ecosystem? How long do you think it will take to build that up?

10GHz Netburst

A lot of early marketing on backside power delivery was touting "generational" improvements in density without sacrificing performance, however the current projections for BPN nodes seem to only show modest improvements? What are the challenges in materialising those density improvements and were the early claims even realistic?

10GHz Netburst

How would you assess Intel's progress on 5 nodes 4 years so far? How many of these nodes do you actually expect to see products on?

10GHz Netburst

Are any of the big market players considering and/or discussing the outlook of the market if the AI glut softens in the coming years? Do you think we are already seeing the first signs of demand tapering off? How much do you think it could slow and what do you think the impact would be?

10GHz Netburst

Is advanced packaging a commodity yet? If not how long do you expect it to take until it is?

10GHz Netburst

Why are Intel's foundry costs so high? Where do you think the money is being burned?

Donkey Kong Odyssey

Could you see GloFo's sugar daddy/piggy bank swooping in and buying Intel Foundries? And if so, would that make GloFo much more competitive against TSMC?

Gergely

If AI designed (or design-assisted) emulators could be a commodity soon and enable very close to native performance X86 on other instruction sets, what would Intel be really worth? (both for foundry and design, they remind me of where IBM fabs, research and chip design was ~15 years ago or so)

Mark Smith

How effective will ARM-based architectures compete with X86 in the long term?

QuickJumper

Hi Tom and Daniel. Looking at Pat's IDM optimism I can't help but wonder what's his plan? Intel feels like AMD when they were buying fabs and spending lot of money when instead they should've been investing more into R&D. What will Intel do with their 4nm or older nodes? Do they have customers? Can they beat TSMC's economics of older nodes? Because if not they are basically building money burners.

QuickJumper

We see with the failures of some of Intel's CPUs that Intel is trying to implement new "default" or "baseline" profiles. From a more technical side what happens with the silicon? Is there like a specific component that dies or it's just these clocks are damaging the silicon? Also from a business perspective what do you think about the way Intel handled the situation?

Paul Hope

A few months ago Lisa Su was asked what she was most excited about that was in development. She answered “the next big thing in ai”. On an engineering (not so much software) standpoint where do you see the future (next 5 years) taking ai compute and with that how will FPGA’s evolve into the fabric?

KarbinCry

Does Rapids have a snowball's chance in hell to succeed and become the 3rd leading edge foundry alongside TSMC and Samsung?

KarbinCry

Can you in short evaluate the positioning of premiere legacy/trailing edge foundries - GloFo and UMC? I find them an interesting pair to analyse comparatively.

Cleansweep

Assuming that the Ryzen AI lineup isn't just some Asus exclusive, what's the possibility that this naming scheme is a play at search optimization?

Glass

Hi Tom and Daniel, with AMD CPUs and nVidia GPUs becoming the defacto DIY high-end recommendation is there not concern that we are entering a sudo-monopoly market for these companies? From the latest MLID leak, it looks like the 5000 series from nVidia will again increase prices, due to little competition in the high-end DIY GPU market. Also, it looks like AMD was keeping margins low for quite some time to take market share from intel. With Intel's continued troubles as of late, how long until AMD feels comfortable to adopt the nVidia GPU strategy with their CPUs?

crumbling_earthblocks

AMD seems to be plagued by delays (Zen4, Zen5, possibly Zen6) although these fly a little under the radar thanks to the products still offering largely superior performance/value/efficiency. What are the reasons for the delays and are these being cleared out? Imagine Zen4 coming out in time and Z5 following in the same time frame as it is now. AMD would be in a different league CPU wise and possibly be able to give Nvidia more of a fight due to higher margins from the CPU division. However despite Intel not giving them much of a fight with 3 generations of ADL they remain just a half step in the lead. What do we make of that?

Chris Rijk

(this is somewhat of a follow-on to Tom’s video on Friday) Many of Intel’s consumer products coming out in the next year will be manufactured by TSMC. Do you think that will help Intel’s profit margins or hurt them? If you think it will hurt Intel’s profit margins then would Intel even be able to respond to an AMD price war? AMD will mostly be using the cheaper 4nm process but Intel will mostly be using the faster and more efficient 3nm process - who do you think made the right choice?

Chris Rijk

Let’s say that you run a company which designs chips that are then manufactured on TSMC’s leading edge nodes. What do you think IFS could offer you that TSMC could not? Putting it another way, what are IFS’s greatest strengths? What types of companies do you think IFS could win over from TSMC?

Chris Rijk

Intel is currently in the middle of dealing with this issue where their top-end desktop processors show performance degradations and frequent failures. What do you think this says about where Intel currently is at, as a company? Is there any real technical excuse for this issue or is this simply a result of Intel getting desperate?

Chris Rijk

The world is currently going crazy for AI chips and in turn HBM. How would you expect this to affect the memory market longer term? Could this have any long term benefits for consumers or will it simply push up prices?

Sarcastro

Hello Tom and Daniel, There is always much talk of TSMC, Intel and Samsung as top foundries, however, with the $2.1 billion in CHIPS act and NY State funding being awarded to GF will they attempt another foray into the more advanced node arena? Is there any company either in operation or on the horizon that can challenge TSMC in product to bring about true competition after Samsung stumbled in Ampere generation?

Sarcastro

I have read in a few articles in the last few years with mention of "advanced materials" beyond silicon for the future of transistors as the Angstrom unit is mentioned. What are these "advanced materials" and how will they be shaped as we reach near atomic and then sub-atomic levels?

Kator

Hello Tom and Daniel, what is the next big thing you are excited about in semiconductor manufacturing? I personally really like the idea of truly 3D stacking chips with on die cooling. Wish you a great day.

Joe Shmoe

Hi Tom and Dan-iel lomg time listener first time questioner. As the current reticle limit dictates the physical size of chips. Do you see this technical limitation potentially being resolved or overcome in future nodes?