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Jon Peddie joins to discuss ARC's Future, Next Gen GPUs - Telegrams for Guests (Patreon)

Published:
2022-08-03 18:51:20
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

Content

Jon Peddie is a man that needs no introduction for many, but in case you don't know - this guy is a Veteran of Computer Graphics since the 1960s, and currently provides some of the most accurate graphics market analysis on Earth.

Recently, he wrote an article breaking down why Pat may or may not close Intel's AXG group...and it spurred me to invite him on!

We want to discuss the reasons ARC may or may not be cancelled, and:

AMD's Resurgence, and place in the current graphics market

Nvidia's Dominance, and what they'll do to keep it (or lose it)

Other upcoming graphics architectures, companies, and competitors

The Semiconductor Industry - how's it doing? Is it threatened?

Anything else you guys ask!  We'll consider CPU, console, etc...

Be sure to be concise (NO NOVELS!), use good grammar, and be thoughtful in your questions to be considered.  You have ~24 hours (Till Thursday Afternoon) to submit!

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jpeddie/

https://www.linkedin.com/company/jon-peddie-research/

https://www.jonpeddie.com/editorials/will-axg-survive-gelsingers-axe

Previous Broken Silicon Episode: https://youtu.be/VK_PNzmlEYA

MLID ARC Cancellation Leak: https://youtu.be/DH2s5HeZzs8

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/intel-stock-falls-after-chipmaker-badly-misses-q2-targets/

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-kills-optane-memory-business-for-good

Gamers Nexus Driver Issues: https://youtu.be/MjYSeT-T5uk

Nvidia Rumored to stay Monolithic again: https://www.hardwaretimes.com/nvidia-delays-the-move-to-chiplet-gpus-rtx-50-series-blackwell-to-leverage-monolithic-die-rumor/

Comments

Falto

What will the graphic companies do to intice us to buy newer better GPUs once 4k 240hz can be easily done with a cheap gpu? As most people will probably not care for any better performance after that I think?

Mischa Jablonski

Hello Tom and Jon, I wonder if, once we reach 4k ~200FPS at the lower mid-range, what will be the "next-big-thing" to buy higher performance GPUs? Will the future of rendering be fully path-traced with ray-tracing, as it's implemented now, being only a stopgap? Greetings from Germany

CompressedAIBlocks

Hello Tom and Jon, hope you're doing well. My question is do you think AMD can ever hit 50% marketshare like during the RV770 days? This was only possible back then because they were selling them at such a low cost and made almost no real money. What are your thoughts?What would they have to do to accomplish this?

crzyces

Is the *CHIPS* Act and the extra 230 Billion USD added to it for R&D really going to help with production and prices or do you think it will be more akin to the Telecommunications Act of 1996 where the companies ivolved have yet to finish/do what they said they would? (Nationwide Fiber, no data caps, $55-$78/m etc etc). Can R&D really even be sped up?

Meritorius

Hello Tom, hello Mr. Peddie, If intel were to fail at entering the (dedicated) gpu market once again, would there be any other company, that could feasibly compete with AMD and NVidia within the next decade? Have a good day and best wishes for Reesie!

Guntis Paeglis

Hello Tom and Jon, I’m super bummed about the possibility of Intel canning Arc entirely as this obviously means that Nvidia and AMD get to keep their duopoly status. What does your gut feeling tell you - will Intel decided to switch their focus back to their CPUs or will they stick it out and grow their graphics division with time?

Cleansweep

Hello Tom & Mr. Peddie, In the article about whether or not Intel might axe AXG, there was a mention of 2 US GPU start-ups. What can you tell us about them, and what would they need to survive/succeed in a post-CHIPS Act world?

Kai-Uwe Markeli

Hello Tom and Jon, do you guys are concerned about the current duopoly on the semiconductor market? Since Nvidia and Qualcomm are switching their major production from Samsung to TSMC it seems, that there are only Intel and TSMC are playing a major role in the fab business. Especially since Samsung is rumored to have serious issues in terms of quality and yield with their recent 4nm process. Do you think Samsung will find their way back to playing a bigger role on the fab market. Best regards from Germany.

EE BRV

Hello Tom and Jon, Any thoughts on recent price hikes in the semiconductor supply chain and if they will be maintained. Some parts I use have seen a 2x cost increase in the last year. Is wafer production capacity being increased at the same rate as fab capacity? Multiple manufactures I talk to blame wafer shortages for their chip shortages.

Rødgrød med Fløde

Hello Tom and Jon, How does AMD's mindshare look right now, what can they do to better it, and how long would it take? What will/can Nvidia do to keep their mindshare?

Chris Rijk

Hi Tom and Jon. With the next generation of dGPUs, are Nvidia potentially in trouble if they are unambiguously beaten by AMD? Not financially, but at least in terms of mindshare in the DIY market. For what it's worth, my guess is that in the short term the answer would be "no". They'll be stung but not in trouble. I think AMD would need to unambiguously win two generations in a row before there is a large change in sentiment.

yoda king

Hey Tom and Jon, recently it was found that SMIC based in China released a bitcoin miner using 7nm technology. Is this a sign of Chinese semiconductor capablility improving? Or are they still limited technology. Also do you think that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan will have any significant consequence to the relationship between the USA and Taiwan to spur more semiconductor fabs into the USA?

Chris Rijk

There's plenty of reasons for Intel to want to get a big slice of the dGPU market and the server equivalents, and it would likely be a win for consumers as well. However, with their core business under massive attack from AMD, maybe they would be better off putting all those billions in R&D into x86 instead? Are Intel being too greedy? Could this be a "fatal" strategic mistake?

Chris Rijk

For their dGPUs to succeed, Intel clearly needs to fix their execution. But what else do you think they should do? Should they change their approach at all? I would suggest cancelling dGPU versions of Battlemage and instead offer versions of Meteor Lake with much stronger graphics. In the meantime make sure their software in general is rock solid. Taking the APU crown in graphics should be possible, unless AMD starts getting serious. Intel should try to get an easy "win" there and then build that up to a new attack on dGPUs.

Badi Yee

Hey Tom and Jon, I'm sure you have seen evolution of GPUs (the processing power increases as well has hardware design evolution). We changed from AGP to PCI-E, mxm by Nvidia is dead, eGPU support and bottleneck is still bad, Dell cancelled their proprietary connectors, Valve made the PC gaming world look at APUs more seriously. Are there exciting new forms in the horizon? Or we are stuck at what we have and try to brute force it? Thanks

Swiggles

Hey guys, if intel realizes they can't compete at the top end, what crazy things so you think they will focus on. Im hopeful we can either get insane Raytracing or productivity improvements or, maybe they'll just be the low end for a while at good prices. Was this comment too long? Ty!

Ron Osmo

Tom & Jon, do you think that Intel has seriously underestimated the complexity of gaming today? I think it's a really really tough market with: many year lead times; 10 - 20 years of legacy games; huge number of api's to support; and sophisticated buyers. Intel are either very courageous or very stupid, which one?

Jordan Simkovic

Hey, Tom and Jon! What do you expect from Lovelace/RDNA3 laptop performance? Any chance of a 6700xt/3060ti level of performance out of a 4070/4080/7800m laptop?

cockblockula

Hi Tom and John! I feel as though Intel will only see profitable returns once their graphics hardware is on par with Nvidia. This will probably take several years to achieve. Do you think Intel is in danger of running out of funds before this happens though? I think they can only invest so much into Arc before their higher-ups decide to cut their losses.

AI Generated Fish

Hi Tom and Jon. With current events being all around bad (mining crash, many people getting new hardware for work from home, global recession), how do you see global demand for gpus in the next cycle? What lessons can we learn from the last mining crash? How much volume do you see shifting from desktop to laptop?

Sarcastro

Mellow Greetings Tom and Jon, If Intel decides to cancel Arc, at some point, what is the probability of another company in the industry approaching Intel to buy the intellectual property of Arc? Can either of you think of a company who would have the desire and the monetary resources (besides Nvidia or AMD) to make an interesting offer to Intel to mitigate losses or recoup as much as they can ? And, who would have the staffing for that initial evaluation of the architecture and software? Would Intel be willing sell the IP or just bury Arc in a New Mexico pit? Considering this is the first big push to challenge the GPU Duopoly, it would seem such a waste of an opportunity for SOMONE to not try and sidle up in the market. Be well, Sarcastro

Bart

Hi Tom and Jon. I'm interested in your perspectives on ARC cancellation in relation to the industry moving to advanced packaging and chiplets in the future. We've already heard about AMD making server APUs with coherent memory and Nvidia already has grace hopper. Do you think that Intel sees this as important enough to keep server graphics for compute around even if they axe consumer? Or does Intel think they'll be able to fill that hole with different accelerators or maybe even chiplets from others? Thanks and greetings from the Netherlands.

aesop_flop

Hello Tom and Jon, With tensions in the East escalating quickly over the past week or so, what kind of future for cpu's/gpu's do you envision if China were to invade Taiwan?

C.W.

Howdy Tom and Jon, This question stems from future energy policy and transitioning away from fossil fuels from our governments. do you believe that companies like Nvidia will get push back as power consumption for enthusiast hardware increases? For example, EU regulation on power usage for consumer hardware.