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Discussing Nvidia, AMD, and Russia & China's Silicon Tech with Asianometry - Telegrams for Guests (Patreon)

Published:
2022-08-19 17:23:11
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

Content

Broken Silicon's next guest will be Jon from Asianometry, a YouTube channel that focuses on Politics, Technology, and Economics - usually with how they relate to the semiconductor industry.  Planned discussions include:

How Intel became so dominant, and began losing dominance...

How Nvidia became so dominant, and what they need to look out for...

AMD’s current place in the market

China & Russia’s current lithography/semi-conductor tech status

Russia’s semiconductor future after sanctions.

Potential results of a war between The West and China over Taiwan

Yep - this one will touch on some political subjects just like when Jason Fields joined.  I really encourage you guys to look around his channel, and/or take some time to ask specific questions regarding a diverse set of subjects. We'll be happy to accept questions ranging from MLID's usual subjects, to geopolitical events going on right now.

Be respectful, use good grammar, and be concise (no novels!) to be considered.  You've got ~48 hours (till noon US Central Time on 8/21) to submit your questions/thoughts below!

https://www.youtube.com/c/Asianometry

Comments

Falto

Let's say a war does break out or some disaster happens and we aren't able to get chips from Taiwan for the foreseeable future. What happens then? Like does everyone move over to intel, global or Samsung? If so would that even work out well?

Timo H

Hi Tom and Jon, Im most interested in Jon's take on what makes Taiwan unique place for semiconductor highend manufacturing, research and all that is needed to stay bleeding edge. To my understanding Jon lives in Taiwan, so what is his view on TSMC's CEO comment that this unique hub cannot be moved elsewhere, suggesting something in that mix of culture, research, perhaps location and so on, is ideal for this industry there? We talked this in relation to Intel and US fabs today in discord, and most other requirements like water, energy, space, even research, can be found in many places of world, but staff is that final piece to make all this work and especially stay on top of newest innovations/technical solutions to push improvements in this field. Also, it is common knowledge less bleeding edge wafer/logic chips are made in all over world, and Intel and other manufacturing electronics companies source components and manufacturing steps from huge array of countries and locations, so perhaps location in middle of important shipping routes helps TSMC in this? Add to this, electronic engineer has to be on top of their game for over a decade if not 20-30 years to master these extremely complicated processes or even single step in that huge machinery of engineers making it happen. Closest comparable location comes to mind, Israel, but they dont have sea transport so well, but otherwise somewhat comparable country in population and also hitech silicon industry, though their priorities before have been mostly military applications and not consumer/professional/commercial like TSMC provides.

Brendon O'Connell

Intel Israel gets saved again. :-) Google - - - Intel CEO: We think of ourselves as an Israeli company as much as a US company “I just want to say that it will be centered here in Jerusalem."

Brendon O'Connell

This was a Hans Morgenthau and Heinz Kissinger idea. Kissinger & Associates. To ensure technology transfer of tech to their new super power (with no pesky lefty bleeding hearts) China. I am an expert on this and look forward to my invite one day Tom :-)

Brendon O'Connell

Hey Tom! Will the discussion include this article from The Jerusalem Post: "Intel CEO: We think of ourselves as an Israeli company as much as a US company" “I just want to say that it will be centered here in Jerusalem." - - - Tom, my channel is monetized now. Anti-semites dont get monetized channels. I know you want to address Israel's take over of US high tech over the last 30 years. The close relationship between Russia and China and Israel. The overall geo-political aspects of "Grand Chess Board" maneuverings out of the International Central Banking Cartels who really run things. Israel's central role in the emerging "multi polar world order". - - - Kissinger & Associates sent US manufacturing to Asia and now they are sending US high technology to Israel and the emerging Federated States of Greater Israel. First it's the superficial stuff, then it is the machines that build the machines. The word E-S-P-I-O-N-A-G-E must leave your lips at some stage. - - - I know the topic is controversial, but pretending Israel as a "cyber technology juggernaught" is something to ignore and not ask..."I thought America was the cyber technology juggernaught?" Russians lead the Israeli high tech sector and most are not even Jewish and they are FULL of Russian GRU assets formal and informal. Espionage...it's an oldie but a goody. You're the only one in the tech world to have the balls to address this Tom. You're it. Linus is to busy building Illuminati Pyramid computers and counting his money on his way back and forth to the Israeli Intel fab for briefings.

Brendon O'Connell

No novels? Eek! Tom - please consider this Jeruslem Post article - - - "Intel CEO: We think of ourselves as an Israeli company as much as a US company" “I just want to say that it will be centered here in Jerusalem." - - - I'm curious what...“I just want to say that it will be centered here in Jerusalem" means? - - - And as the Intel Icelake fiasco disaster was a PURELY Israeli affair, did they get caught placing hardware flaws/backdoors in the chips? Consult Christopher Domas, "God Mode Unlocked".

Bart

Hello Tom and Jon, Not a question because of Jon's take on policy but because of the wide knowledge of the industry he seems to have. Can you guys give an overview of when sheet/ribbon fets will be introduced by the different foundries? Thanks from the Netherlands, Bart

Ludovico Morreale

Hi Tom & Jon, aside from the usual node size reduction (7nm -> 5nm -> 3nm) what could be the next breakthroughs in microchip architecture that would allow the big players to revolutionize again our lives? E.g. moving from silicium to another material, building more components in 3D (stacking) than just V-cache... ?

Cleansweep

Hey Tom and Jon, Given that a lot of foundries have plateaued at specific nodes because the cost of developing better nodes became unaffordable, has there been any focus on improving the manufacturing technologies/techniques to make things cheaper and easier? From what I understand, most of the advancements seem to be focused on performance or getting semiconductors functional at smaller node sizes. Also, do you think Intel is in danger of joining the list of foundries that plateaued soon? Is the money from the CHIPS Act enough to keep them going if they hit another rough patch with node shrinking?

Benjamin Cannon

RibbonFETs is the name that Intel made up for what is called Gate All Around FETs or GaaFETs. TSMC is using GaaFEts starting with their N2 process in late 2025-ish Intel is getting their with their 20A node in (they claim) mid 2024 Samsung is a mess, their 3nm GAA is in “mass production” already, but has 10-20% yield rates on smartphone dies. AKA it isn’t anywhere near ready

Benjamin Cannon

Hey Tom and Jon! This is Ben, the discord moderator that reached out to you. I just wanted to say thank you for coming on Broken Silicon. I am very excited to listen to this podcast and I know a lot of others are as well. My question: Do you think intel will successfully become a leading edge foundry or will their chronic delays cause them to possibly split into separate entities like AMD and Global Foundries eventually did?

MelodicArmor

Welcome to the show Jon! My question is regards to the recent changes in China's Semi-conductor industry. With China's CCP cracking down on the leadership of most domestic foundries, the never-ending dumping of cash into endless government-based projects and the "China+1" policy alot of foreign companies have taken up due to economic changes in China, do you foresee China falling further behind in their semi-conductor growth and watching it expand in other areas of the world? To me it seems from my point of view that things are changing rapidly there. I would love to have your educated input. Thanks in advance!

SwirlingMist

Sup guys, I’ve heard Taiwan’s silicone rich sands played a role in them specializing in chip production, but also that global supplies of silicon are dwindling. Where are things at with the global silicon supply, and the geopolitics of those reserves?

Bart

Not really an answer to your question but Dylan Patel from SemiAnalysis (maybe a good idea for a future guest?) has a good article where he touches on per transistor costs for the newer nodes (https://semianalysis.substack.com/p/the-dark-side-of-the-semiconductor). In there he says the per transistor costs for leading edge nodes are still falling but only for the customers which can scale to really high volumes.

Wasmachineman_NL

How will the future of companies like AMD, Nvidia, Apple etc look like when and IF Taiwan gets invaded and TSMC throws a nuke on their chip making machines? Will said companies go bankrupt or scramble to find an alternative chip maker like Intel, GloFo or SS?

Samantha Vimes

Hey Tom and Jon! Big fan of your silicon politics content Jon! In recent news we've seen China and Russia doing joint military training. With Russia seemingly struggling to equip their military with modern tech, how important is china's semiconductor industry to these nations military capabilities? Do you see any scenario where China would open fabs in Russia or do a technology transfer to Russia to help them produce chips domestically? Many Thanks!

Samantha Vimes

Howdy, Tom and Jon! Interested to hear your thoughts on the state of the Chinese semiconductor industry. In your opinion, how much of what China is doing right now is based on original design, and engineering and how much is stolen/reverse engineered/etc from TSMC and others? Is this still as big of a factor as some make it out to be?

Samantha Vimes

With global tensions rising the possibility of world war seems more realistic by the day. How critical is Taiwan's semiconductor industry to the global economy? If China was to blockade Taiwan do you think the Western nations would be forced into conflict to avoid the economic fallout?

Samantha Vimes

If so, which nations have the most to lose from such a conflict? Which nations would be most likely to join the conflict militarily?

Mars Lazarus

Hello Tom and Jon! What is your opinion on semiconductor process node naming? Is the industry going to keep using nanometers (and angstroms) for the foreseeable future, is there an alternative that's more representative of a nodes actual properties?

Swiggles

Hello, what level of effect do you see fsr playing into amd's next gen initiative. It's primed for something huge, but any plans from amd in particular and do you think it could end up being the reason they took the performance crown so aggressively, since they made upgrading even easier to stave off.

PCDog

Hello Tom and Jon, the recent visit to Taiwan by the US Speaker of the House provoked China to conduct “military exercises” around the island of Taiwan. Were these exercises posturing on the part of China for diplomatic gain or was this a true prelude to military action? Would China risk war over a perceived violation of the One China policy?

TMCPayton

Howdy Tom and Jon, Like Tom, I studied Mechanical Engineering in college. I took courses in MEMS recently and found it fascinating. What is your intermediate to long outlook for MEMS as a whole? What specific applications do you believe MEMS might explode into soon? Are there any MEMS technological breakthroughs on the horizon you are excited about? Thank you both!

cepech

Hi Tom and Jon, What would be the immediate and long term effects of a trade war/block from The West instead of a traditional war with China? this is in the context that a huge majority of components for PCBs and products are still manufactured there, even without counting the need of TSMC's manufacturing. Also, as Intel doesn't depend directly on TSMC and doesn't have factories in Taiwan (AFAIK), would you say that anything that happens in that region would indirectly benefit them? AMD, nVidia and Apple have a direct dependency in TSMC and a short term move to any other foundry is, more or less, impossible.

kjm015

Hello Tom and Jon, I've been hearing a lot about silicon fab construction and development in the mainstream press recently, but not as much coverage on the development of technologies and architectures that utilize that underlying silicon. Assuming that mainland China develops or acquires fabs that can make advanced silicon nodes, how would they actually utilize that? What companies or entities in mainland China have the capability to develop natively-designed advanced computing devices (CPUs, GPUs, etc.)?

TMCPayton

Howdy Tom and Jon, What instruction sets and architectures can and will be built on Russian and Chinese fabs? I've heard mixed information about US government banning X86 and ARM in those countries since China clearly got access to old Zen designs. What companies would design architectures or would it be governments directly? Thanks