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Intel LGA 1851 Concerns (Telegrams for Die Shrink) (Patreon)

Published:
2024-03-07 20:57:34
Edited:
2024-03-07 20:59:52
Imported:
2026-06
Tags:

Content

To say that Arrow Lake has a lot riding on it for Intel's future would be quite an understatement - especially when it comes to how Intel is viewed in DIY circles.  Without a doubt Arrow Lake has its work cut out for it when it comes to being competitive with Zen 5...

...but you know, most discussions about "Arrow Lake vs Zen 5" tend to be hyperfocused on their comparable performance without addressing the 800 LB gorilla that will be in the room this holiday season - Arrow Lake will require a new platform!  Does anyone remember how much of a drag AM5 pricing was on Zen 4? Or, how many people complained about LGA 1700 motherboards around Alder Lake's launch?  This episode will be all about the following:

Ignoring ARL, what features would Intel's Z890 platform need to have to justify being "worth it" to purchase over X670E if it cost, for example, 20-50% more?

If Z890 only has minor upgrades over Z790 (4-8 more PCIe lanes, latest WiFi, etc), how much better than Zen 5 does ARL need to be to warrant paying a premium for this new platform?

At a minimum, how many generations should Intel support on LGA 1851?

What do we think about X870E potentially just being "X670E w/ USB4 support"?

If AMD supported AM5 till Zen 7, and Intel only supported LGA 1851 through Arrow Lake, how big of a deal would that be?

Write-in below with all of your questions and thoughts relating to upcoming Motherboard Platform competition, and what you want out of desktop platforms moving forward!  Unfortunately, you only have a few hours from when this is posted to submit - sorry for the short notice!  So don't wait to post, and use good grammar with as much conciseness as possible to have your submissions below get considered!

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/why-amds-ryzen-7000-and-motherboards-cost-so-damn-much

https://www.newegg.com/msi-mag-x670e-tomahawk-wifi/p/N82E16813144595

https://youtu.be/yV1MyhyaOwk?si=OuMl-VRY3I1Rfr87&t=624

https://videocardz.com/newz/intel-meteor-lake-s-desktop-cpus-to-feature-20-pcie-gen5-lanes-z890-platform-to-support-wifi-7

Comments

CompressedAIBlocks

Tom + Dan, not a question but just thoughts. I got 13600KF and Z790 setup. After tweaking it's a fine enough platform and CPU power, but it still feels like "well this is it, no upgrade unless it's all new." I think that if they were to do just Arrow Lake with 1851, they would be alienating a lot of DIY customers again. I know if I just waited a few months for AM5 gouging to go down, I would have just gone AM5. I think at this point if they don't support Arrow Lake (including it's refresh), and at least two other generations of CPUs it will not be pretty for them with DIY customers. We've been spoiled by AMD.

Jamwap

A big issue with AM5 was that only the premium chipsets were available at launch. Do you think Intel could mitigate this issue by shipping mid-range chipsets as early as possible? And do you think they will? (Side note: I think they have to promise to support at least 3 gens just like AMD did since very few people upgrade a CPU after only 1 cycle)

Deadeyes

Do you think Arrow lake HAD to have new motherboards or do you think this is a symptom of their old tactics and they just haven't had time to turn the ship yet? Do you think they could have achieved similar results on the existing socket if they had planned it that way from the beginning? Do you think they will try to improve long term socket compatibility going forward?

10GHz Netburst

With Z690/Z790, and arguably also with Z490 and Z590, I think intel has shown it has a lead in the high end chipset space, they offer more lanes without the added complexity of AMDs dual chipset setup, lower power, and a better balance between fast and slow IO. AMD has arguably done far better with their B series chipsets. Setting aside the fact that basically no LGA1700 CPUs are at all interesting, how much above where it should be do you think the motherboard prices are, and how much do you think intel needs to push in the lower end?

Razgriz III

3 gens minimum. And with what a nothing 14th gen has been on desktop, I’d rather have 4 given their new track record of tock tick half-tick… I got Alder because I needed a new mobo either way and it was the best thing at the time, but even drop-in upgrade 12600K->14700K was barely break-even cost effective vs just getting a 7800X3D and new mobo. If I didn’t build ITX it would have been a no-brainer to just switch to AM5 with a local Microcenter deal.

Jamwap

I realized a big issue with Alder Lake was I don't feel comfortable putting their 8 core 12700k on a budget motherboard. Where as I can put a Ryzen 8 core like a 5700x or a 5800x3d on a budged b450. Do you think if Intel keeps their power consumption under control this time, people will be more comfortable buying a CPUs without needing to pay for a premium VRM?

Richard P

I find it incomprehensible how Intel can't wake up and see the long term ship sinking. Surely they can see how people resent not getting a long term socket support like AMD. I feel like ARL needs a clear set of features even on mid range motherboards that stand out, perhaps excellent M.2 support, Thunderbolt 5 potentially and other quality of life improvements. The level of arrogance is unreal from Intel but I guess the mindshare in enterprise is still so strong it doesn't often matter which is better even with a 100 dollars price difference. Healthy competition is what I'd love to see not just adding another 50W of power to break 6.5ghz or whatever ARL might do. Sorry for the rant 😂

SaltyInternetPirate

Hi, Tom and Dan. Thinking of what the new Z890 platform will require, I just don't see what could make it appealing. No consumer needs PCIe Gen5 SSD speeds, which at this point are only economical for workstation and server, and adding the fastest USB 4 won't help either, since the devices that would need it would also be rare and highly specialized. It seems as through timing alone Intel is screwed with this platform, as one would have more of an argument for it if it came out at the same time as X670. That said, the main problem will be cost. If Intel can't make it cheap, they might lose DYI for three years.

Cleansweep

IMO, X870E just being X670E with USB 4 support would be fine if the overall price point of existing boards dropped and X870E filled the high end price points. I think B850 being as good or better than B650(E) at the same or cheaper price points is probably going to matter more in the long run for most people.

Prior is the theme 999

I’m in the camp of arrow lake being DOA. Even if it hits performance targets. With the 7800x3d being $350 AMD will probably be able to reduce it down to sub $300 maybe even $280. I see Intel as a wash in DIY, especially if we start considering platform upgrades. It may come off as me thinking these products are bad, but I don’t think they are. Vex said it best in the last podcast “Intel draws more power and has more motherboard cycles I don’t see a reason to get it”.

Daniel E Spisak

What actual percentage of the market is made up of people doing limited upgrades? (I.e. cpu only or gpu only). I feel like the fact that ARL needs a new motherboard isn’t as big a deal as made out to be because people don’t upgrade ever cycle and will wait to maximize the uplift of building a new system. I myself am on a 5900X + 3080 Ti (purchased for 3090 retail price thanks gpu shortage and pandemic) and I don’t see a reason to upgrade until maybe 50 series + Zen 5 and even then it’s not because my current system isn’t fast enough.

Dark Side of the Force

Hi Tom... Just chime in to say that I hope it's not a "1 gen" platform (not counting refreshes). If it was, that would just be pure disapointing. For a new platform I would invested in, I would expect some future upgrdability availlable. Being "1 gen" limits the upgrade option down the road, and making such upgrade option being expensive (as I have seen with older platform with their high-end CPU fetching a premium), while also drastically increase the sunken cost into the build (since you cannot reuse the motherboard), and further in my opinion, reduce the liquitity of the build when time to resell it either as a whole or part out. As for the price increase, for ~20% price increase over Z790, I would expect Z890 to provide PCIE x8 x8 bifurcation, more PCIE lanes fan out either in PCIE slots or M.2. If it was ~50% increase, it better have something like Thunderbolt and 10gbe lan onboard and all the stuff mentioned above. I really hope the price hike will not all be poured into the VRM.... but I would keep that as a possibility as 🅱️intel themselves is planning to release a 400W+ 14900KS around the corner... As for "X870E", personally I see that fanning out different name plate for guarranteed feature set is a good move with the condition being that it must be clear cut, the guarranteed feature set is significant different compare to the tier below, and they don't pull the cheaper option away. The problem I see with AMD is that they starting to have toooooo much nameplate for motherboard that is too similar with feature set that steps on each others foot. I think with X870E, they should cut some AM5 line away just to simplify the line up and communicate clear message of which product offers what.

Chris Rijk

I think the only scenario in which Intel would be able to get away with LGA 1851 having a short life is if Intel can dominate DIY sales due to the strength of ADL alone. Otherwise they’d just be giving gamers another reason to buy AMD.

Prior is the theme 999

In my opinion the minimum support for a socket should be three generations. If you buy a platform you should be able to drop in a new cpu upgrade three to four years later.

Kinihun25

Hey Tom and Dan, I have a 13700k and I love it, I'm an independent 3D animator she I don't see the need to upgrade anytime soon until Arrow Lake is 40% better than what I have or 25% better uses 10% less energy and that Z890 give me a partial HEDT experience. Where I have alot of PCIe lanes with large capacity DDR5 slots in the $300-$400 price point. (I'm of course not asking for that in the entry level of Z890)

GrandDemand

If Z890 comes in at a 20%-30% premium over X670E I'd like to see: 6400-7200MHz DDR5 in 2DPC, 28 CPU PCIe lanes (at least 16 5.0); at a 40-50% premium: 7200MHz+ 2DPC DDR5 speeds, 32 CPU PCIe lanes (20+ 5.0), 7-segment error code display as standard, Thunderbolt 5

CompressedAIBlocks

Does it matter even if Arrow Lake is 20%~ better than Zen 5? Alder Lake held the performance crown pretty much across the board, minus the 5800X3D which is 1% faster at 1440p/4K than the 12900K in gaming which is a tie basically. Alder Lake didn't really do anything to correct the mind share and market share that Intel has lost. Will Arrow Lake even stand a chance? It seems like sentiments behind Intel are much worse this time around. Rocket Lake was a meme but 10600/10700/10900 were not bad chips by any stretch, this time they're going in with people memeing them about Raptor Lake and Raptor Lake Refresh.

Cleansweep

I feel like Intel not supporting at least three real gens on LGA 1851 would be a huge mistake. They're in such a bad spot with the DIY market that it'd be seen as a huge step for Intel in the right direction, even if it's just catching up to the competition.

David

In terms of platform longevity, what are the chances that current gen AM5 boards will even support faster RAM speeds needed for Zen5/Zen6 higher end core count SKUs? If you need a new board anyway (with cleaner signal lines, etc) you are still paying the new platform tax.

David

Since AM5 is already PCIe lane starved for some high end builds, X870E not moving to PCIe 5.0 (vs. 4.0) for the CPU uplink feels like a missed opportunity to give board vendors room to innovate. What's your take? Even if a board vendor needed to add a 4-lane retimer to reach the chipset, in 2024 it can't cost that much extra. Certainly not for a high end board.

David

Do you have any information why AMD is being so cagey with fully supporting ECC on Zen4 consumer chips? Both AM5 and laptop. Sounds like they only want to fully enable on OEM "PRO" SKUs? Is this misguided market segmentation? Just super low yields on the I/O die ECC logic? or... ?

PCDog

Part of the high cost of the AM5 platform at launch was DDR5 RAM prices being really high. Current DDR 5 prices are much more reasonable. How much will this help Intel keep their platform costs down?

Dark Side of the Force

Pretty sure AMD still support ECC on AM5, mostly dependant on motherboard vender, but not really locked to "PRO" Sku like you said, except for their APU. I've seen post of people running unregistered dimm on AM5 with ECC fully working on Asus boards.

Chris Rijk

With regards to Z890 board costs, while it would be nice to have some high end options for those that want it, I don’t think there’s much demand for it based on the AM5 launch. Personally, I’d rather have more general purpose PCIe slots instead of trying to cram everything onto a single motherboard.

Gergely

Is there even enough capacity considering the current yield on the new node used for compute to manufacture these at scale? Wouldn't there be a better use for limited capacity on laptop client (if yields are too poor to allow big chips) or server (if yields are good, but wafer starts are low)

10GHz Netburst

How much does Z790 really need to be upgraded? Shouldn't intel focus on a B760/860 and just getting the prices reasonable there? What about unlocking OCing on B860 or having a Z860?

Dig Wiggler

ARL needs to be exceptional from a performance standpoint. Intel just won't price chips low enough to win value because of their money situation. People will just buy AM4 (TechEpiphany data from Mindfactory ref) for value. The only hope they have is the crown and it needs to be convincing. Intel would have to have something special, like 50% better to gain any good faith back at this point. Personally, I wouldn't even consider Intel before that point just because of AMD providing more support on generations per socket (real ones)

MelodicArmor

Honestly I have a ton of concerns for Arrow Lake's launch. The cost of their Motherboards have always been more. (Sometimes by degrees of 30%) Meteor Lake and Raptor Lake Refresh showed that for newer designs you will need high speed RAM in order to even get close to what AMD is capable of in most workloads. Let's also not forget that Arrow Lake is the first of many gens of single threading on the P-cores. That means customers will have to factor in a good kit of RAM into the cost even more so than before. I suspect then Intel will find itself in an extremely awkward position in the DIY space. Either way if the current price war continues into next gen, then regardless of who has what features, I think AMD will still win that fight.