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048 - Awards Race Check-In (EXCURSION - Turbulent Brilliance) (Patreon)

Published:
2025-07-18 07:00:05
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

Before the season really kicks off with the fall festivals, it's time to take the temperature in the room and check in on where we think the season ahead will be heading. We talk about how we think Ryan Coogler's Sinners will hold up over the season, what we expect to see at the coming festivals (though note: this was recorded prior to this week's TIFF announcement), what Sundance and Cannes titles look to perform well, and films we loved from the first half of the year that may not be Oscar bound.

Comments

Elliott Sainsbury

Unrelated, but I get a lot of used DVDs from thrift stores and am always amused at just how many THOB titles there are. Just yesterday I saw copies of Ladies in Lavender, A Good Year, Hope Springs, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The House of Mirth AND what I thought was Alfie… but was instead the jump scare remake with Russell Brand!

Sam Hetherington

The way Chris says F1 makes me think of D’Fwan from 30 Rock. So I propose that we make D’F1 a thing so Tituss Burgess can present Best Sound in character

JPB Gerald

Cynicism is fine, but nihilism is how we fail. If my ancestors had given up on those fields I wouldn't exist. Also why Sinners hit me so hard, relevantly

Braden Poapst

Since you brought up The Whale, I saw a rep screening of Do The Right Thing at a local arthouse theater last night and they always have people who are connected to/have visited Iowa do pre show bumpers and I got one of Scott Rudin apologist Samuel D Hunter thanking me for seeing a movie at that theater and I almost screamed. If that man has 0 haters, I am no longer on this earth.

JPB Gerald

I am amused you did RDJ and followed it with the actor giving the performance he was warning Stiller not to give in Tropic Thunder

MJ

I’m skeptical of Sinners’ chances but only in terms of winning anything. I can see BP, screenplay and tech noms though. The movie is Black as hell in a way they’ve ignored for decades so I don’t see why they’d switch up now (int’l voting body or not). Plus I’ve got a few problems with how -much- movie it’s trying to be despite being in the target audience so idk…

Stephanie Radcliffe

Materialists just confounded me, especially since Past Lives was such a specific, personal story that felt universal. My nitpick is that Dakota Johnson has rich girl face, she cannot play a character that grew up poor!

C S

So in the always-fun question of who has actually retired that's a legend who might present best pic, my sister was listening in a thought of Michael Caine. Who of course has hardly been off the scene long and may have not made his last novie, but I do think fits.

The Reading Bee

>:[ damn it, Joe. I am two hours away from seeing Superman!

Kristin Troccoli

First time I’m hearing Asteroid City as well received. I like it (with caveats) but I remember it being divisive and very inaccessible

Brady Thomas

I think where the "Wicked: For Good" conversation is gonna be really interesting is in how they expand the material to be movie length. Act 2 of "Wicked" is famously rushed on stage, and I liked how they expanded Act 1 for the first movie, so I'm cautiously optimistic. At the very least it'll be in play for the original songs.

Rob Watson

How sure are we that James L. Brooks was watching Sex Education, got bricked up for Emma Mackey, and then wrote an entire movie for her and barely bothered to change the character’s name?

John Ananias

I like the "reunion of old co-stars" bit when it comes to Oscars presenters, and I like the "nodding to a special anniversary of [whichever movie]" bit when it comes to Oscars presenters - keyword on the latter being "special" (like, having Travolta, Thurman, and Jackson, great, but...for the *28th* anniversary of PULP FICTION?). Trying to think, "What big/Oscars-lauded or Oscars-SHOULD HAVE-lauded movie is turning 50 or 40 or 30 or 25 in 2026," my mind's running through: Maybe bring on Jeff Goldblum & Geena Davis (THE FLY, 40) to present Best Picture? Or Cruise & Zellweger (JERRY MAGUIRE, 30)? Or Billy Crystal & John Goodman (MONSTERS, INC., 25) and have Crystal spend a couple minutes on how Goodman should have like 5 nominations by now? Unfortunately, I've now fantasized myself into wanting Rick Moranis & Ellen Greene to present Original Score/Song for the "40th anniversary of LITTLE SHOP" reunion. (Of course, all these movies I've just mentioned will have those anniversaries of their OSCAR YEARS in 2027, but I digress.)

George Wishart

From what we’ve seen in the trailers, I think ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER can hit hard with audiences due to the current political climate and what’s happening in the US. A man’s child being forcibly abducted by the government, him going on a mission to get her back, lots of shots of violence/protests in the streets. Who knows, it could speak to a moment happening right now.

Clint

little concerned about mother mary ngl. filming wrapped a year ago, and in that time a24 filmed ANOTHER pop star movie starring…charli xcx, who also supplied songs for anne to sing in mother mary. obviously these movies are no doubt very different, and perhaps they’re just keeping a lid on it…but as y’all mentioned, the charli xcx over-saturation is, again, worrying…

Clint

one battle after another is kinda giving potential babylon trajectory imo: divisive, with lots of strong supporters and even just “appreciators”, but a bad cinemascore and a flop at the box office yet still winds up with maybe a few technical/craft noms…

John Ananias

I hadn't heard a thing about this SONG SUNG BLUE movie before this episode, and, my dad having been a big Neil Diamond guy, I guess I gotta add that to my list for the rest of the year.

Trim Filbert

Happy to have joined this Patreon recently. Just at the right time to pick up on the current year awards buzz. Need to be better prepared for the Fantasy League this year :) I jotted down the movies mentioned. Feel like I did a pretty good job but might have missed some stuff towards the beginning. What has me excited? Hedda, One Battle After Another, Bugonia, Ballad of a Small Player, Song Sung Blue, Frankenstein The Phoenician Scheme Black Bag F1 Sinners One Battle After Another Train Dreams The Secret Agent Sentimental Value Eddington The History of Sound Hamnet Bugonia Anemone Song Sung Blue Rental Family Is this Thing On The Presidents Cake Eleanor the Great A Magnificent Life Blue Moon Nuremberg The Choral Jay Kelly Frankenstein A House of Dynamite Ballad of a Small Player Wake Up Dead Man The Smashing Machine Marty Supreme If I Had Legs I'd Kick You Mother Mary The Lost Bus Die My Love Sound of Falling The Mastermind Father Mother Sister Brother Roofman A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Caught Stealing Kiss of the Spider Woman Wicked: For Good After the Hunt Hedda Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Avatar: Fire and Ash Peter Hujar's Day Ann Lee At the Sea Klara and the Sun I Want Your Sex The Christophers Caught by the Tides Misericordia On Swift Horses

Emily Sabo

Based on your guys’ recommendation I saw On Becoming a Guinea Fowl in the theater and loved it! (I also added it to my 2024 movie fantasy league…)

Elliott Sainsbury

The 'Caught Stealing' trailer would be 100% improved with a less-obvious needle drop than 'Should I stay or should I go'. Matt Smith (and his awful hairpiece) look riduclous! Also cannot agree more with Chris about Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein. Talking of nobody really knowing what an Oscar Movie looks like anymore, having just seen 28 Years Later in the right hands I can totally imagine a narrative for Alex Garland's screenplay, cinematography (shot on iPhone!) and potentially Jodie Comer or Ralph Fiennes. If EEAAO and Anora can win big, it feels like anything can. Beyond hyped for Hamnet, especially given how many people seem to dump on Nomadland (one of my favourite BP winners of the last 10 years) and how slept-on The Rider is. Jessie Buckley and Mescal are coming off surprise noms and agree there's a big comeback narrative for Chloe Zhao there.

Kara Hogan

***EDIT: spoke too soon, you discuss during the Cannes section! Shocked there was no mention of SORRY, BABY among the Sundance titles - I watched it during virtual and loved. Its lack of wide release will probably hurt it and A24 has a crowded slate (as always), but it won the same prize as A REAL PAIN at Sundance and I don’t see an original screenplay nom out of the question. Probably will clean up at Indie Spirits, though.

Hayden Claborn

I feel like anyone saying that Bigelow is “pro war” or “pro America” fundamentally misunderstands her movies, particularly Zero Dark Thirty; a brilliant movie about the evil soul of post 9/11 America that made mistake of not announcing that torture is bad.

JPB Gerald

My dad was born in Jim crow. He worked the fields every day after school, yet went on to ivy league success. He hates fantasy and vampires and he found Sinners incredibly moving. I think it'll stick around

Sophie Pels

The Holy Trinity of Things Will Definitely Happen Soon - Rihanna's next album - Terrence Malick’s Jesus movie - the Chess revival (I know this has a date set to open in the fall but I still don’t trust it)

Brent Holcomb

Materialists was so lovely and very moving. A breath of fresh air. My Best Friend's Wedding vibes only replace the madcap hilarity with gentle silliness. I love that it doesn't shy away from dark subject matter. It feels like a truly modern romantic movie and Chris Evans was *note-perfect.* Celine Song's response to some reactions to his character only enhances my love for this movie. 10/10

JPB Gerald

This is funny to hear after the nominations. Also lol at f1