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Excel LADZ - 2024 MLB Model (Patreon)

Published:
2024-04-01 11:58:08
Imported:
2026-06
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  • Excel LADZ - 2024 MLB Model.xlsx

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Content

G'day, lads

Attached is the Excel LADZ - 2024 MLB Model 🔥

An article explaining the changes I made will be published shortly 💪

Note: To update the data, go into the 'Data' tab and select the "Refresh All" icon. Wait for the simulations to refresh and the file to load completely.

Please don't hesitate to ask any questions you may have lads!

Files

Previews only

PREDICT MLB Matches With Excel | Tutorial

Download MLB Model: https://www.patreon.com/posts/easiest-strategy-85722351 G'day lads, below are the links I used to import the Baseball Stats live from the internet. Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com Team Rankings: https://www.teamrankings.com Furthermore, below is the link to the Research Paper titled 'An analytic model for per-inning scoring distributions' which provided me with the appropriate Probability Distribution. Paper: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/images/analytica/rpi_model.pdf 0:00 Introduction 0:27 COMPILING DATA 8:28 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 17:40 WIN PROBABILITY

Comments

Bryan Rufo

Thanks for updating the sheet! Super helpful!! One quick question though, are we able to delete the old Power Query tables from 2023, or do we have to leave them?

Excel LADZ
>>133955851

Hi lad, I’ve left the 2023 tables in the model. These stats are unconnected from the power query, and standalone as values. This is so a team can get their ratings determined by a “sliding scale”. I’ve made this scale 30 games So, after one game of the 2024 season, a team’s ATT & DEF ratings will be made up (1/30) of their 2024 performance and (29/30) of their 2023 performance. After 23 games of the 2024 season, a team’s ATT & DEF ratings will be made up of (23/30) of their 2024 stats and (7/30) of their 2023 stats. After 30 games, a team’s ATT & DEF strength is entirely dependent on their 2024 performance. I’ll explain more in an article detailing my changes to the MLB Model soon, but I hope this helps lad 💪

Adrien

I, I cant update datas. I m in France and can't find any existing connections in your file :(

Excel LADZ
>>134163381

Hi lad, that's not good! Let's try and get this fixed up as fast as possible. If you're able to, please message me over Discord with a screenshot of your issue 👍

Mason

Hi I am a new member and I am super interested in the Excel MLB Model. How come the Probability of the teams winning keeps changing, The % of the teams winning keeps switching on me and I dont udnerstand.

Excel LADZ
>>134577643

Hi lad, welcome 🔥 The probabilities are determined through simulations of the matchup. Using the Expected Runs calculated for each team, Excel runs through 1,000 simulations of the game. Simulations are necessary due to the specific rules of baseball - if the scores are tied, the innings continue. Consider the Yankees vs Dodgers. If the Dodgers win 630 simulations out of 1,000 then their Win % is 63.0%. Whenever you update a cell, select a new team, or refresh the file, Excel re-runs these simulations. As the number of simulations in the model is "only" 1,000, then probabilities will change slightly with each new lot of simulations. If I increased the number of simulations to 100,000, this change would be much lower due to the 'law of large numbers'. However, the model's performance would suffer as the file would become too slow and literally crash 💥 I hope that helps lad 👍 Don't hesitate to ask anymore questions 💪

Rolf Boman

Hey Lad, can you make a quick tutorial on how to function the new MLB MODEL because the results page is slightly different from the older version and walkthrough video.

Rolf Boman
>>134613423

“Live win Probability” preferably and the section in yellow beside it

Excel LADZ
>>134613423

Hi lad, you’re absolutely right 🔥 I’ll make a short tutorial vid in the next week or two outlining these changes. In short, the model became more efficient by adding in an extended extra innings feature 👍 Also, the live win probability was moved to be more accessible 😃

Connor Rezo

Hey lad, does the model happen to take into consideration starting pitchers?

Binoy Sheth

Hey! Thanks for this, truly Is remarkable. Does this model incorporate starting pitchers as well as overall bullpens?

Excel LADZ
>>137693424

G'day lad, welcome! Not yet, incorporating starting pitchers will most likely the next video I make!

Binoy Sheth
>>137693424

Thank you! Will be looking forward to it! One last question, is there a way to weigh the last 3 games for a team into the probabilities? Teams tend to go on streaks and I wonder if that would give an advantage in calculating probabilities a tad bit more accurately. Curious to hear your thoughts!

Randy Reed

Hi, Just joined and downloaded the 2024 MLB model. Do you have one that includes MLB pitchers and MLB starting lineups for each game daily? Seems that would be a lot more accurate??

Ben

Playing with this today. Is there a way to project pitcher statlines (ie Outs / H / K / BB)?

spoilbrat42

The live Simulation not showing and got error #NAME.

Excel LADZ
>>143584993

Hi lad, welcome 🔥 A #NAME error suggest that Excel doesn't recognise a function. From my end it's working alright. Do you mind sending me screenshots of your issue via email or the Discord? That way I can see where your error is originating from 😉 My email is ladz.excel@gmail.com 👍