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ANALYSE Football Matches for Win %, Over/Under and Correct Score using EXCEL! | Tutorial (Patreon)

Published:
2024-05-07 20:33:00
Imported:
2026-06
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Downloads

  • Excel Ladz - European Football Poisson Model 2024-25.xlsx
  • Excel Ladz - European Football Poisson Model 2024-25 (Legacy).xlsx

Missing 1 full-res photo, 2 files, as this post has not yet been imported.

Content

G'day lads!

I've put together a model that uses the live stats and the Poisson distribution to predict EPL, LaLiga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Seria A games. All in one dashboard!

Note: The 'Normal' uses array functions that are only available to Excel 2019 users and later. However, the 'Legacy' file should work for ALL versions of Excel 💪

Simply select a league in cell A3, select the matchup from the dropdown list in G1 & G3, and the results will populate. To update the data, go into the 'Data' tab and select the "Refresh All" icon. This will refresh the power query's connection to the internet and import up-to-date stats.

Files

Previews only

ANALYSE Football Matches for Win %, Over/Under and Correct Score using EXCEL! | Tutorial

Download: https://www.patreon.com/posts/analyse-football-103833026 EPL Football Reference Stats: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/Premier-League-Stats LaLiga Football Reference Stats: https://fbref.com/en/comps/12/La-Liga-Stats Ligue 1 Football Reference Stats: https://fbref.com/en/comps/13/Ligue-1-Stats Bundesliga Football Reference Stats: https://fbref.com/en/comps/20/Bundesliga-Stats Serie A Football Reference Stats: https://fbref.com/en/comps/11/Serie-A-Stats

Comments

Jonny Hoareau

will this automatically update for next season and so on?

Jonny Hoareau

how do i change to my time zone?

Excel LADZ
>>137437315

Hi lad, this file only updates throughout the 2023-24 season. However, once that is finished, I'll make a new sheet connecting the 2024-25 data that everyone can download 👍 I would love to have had the model keep updating season-to-season by itself, but the website for 2025,26,27... seasons haven't been created yet 🤷

Excel LADZ
>>137438930

Great question lad 🔥 I'll look into that and see if it's an easy feature to add into the model. I'll let everyone know in a post when this change has been made 💪

Iain Moran

How can we change the leagues for ones that play through the summer?

Iain Moran

Has the BTTS calculation been created on this model?

Excel LADZ
>>137767172

Great question lads! It would involve bringing in a new Power Query for whatever league you wanted to add. For example, the MLS. Now, using a combination of formulas (depending on how the MLS stats were brought in with the Power Query), you would create the MLS Table/Standings like I've done in the "Data" worksheet. Then, name the worksheet "mis_table". Add 'MLS' to the competition range, then add "mls" to the competition_code range. This will enable you to reference the MLS Table. Then, all the formulas in the "Dashboard" worksheet should update from there 👍 Perhaps I should do a tutorial video on this 😃

Iain Moran
>>137767172

If you could make a video it would be awesome, lad. The five leagues on this sheet, all finish in a couple of weeks, so a step-by-step tutorial on how to add some new ones would be appreciated!

ryy ryy

could you do player shots/passing? that would be perfect !

ryy ryy

and/or team shots/freekicks/throwins

Iain Moran

The model has stopped working. I suspect thet the data site has made some changes. Maybe time to make a video showing how to add new leagues and teach us how to correct things when the data changes :)

Excel LADZ
>>138254266

Hi lad, thanks for letting me know. I tested both models and the data was working fine for me. If you're experiencing an error, do you mind sending me a screenshot through Discord? That way the error can be tracked down better 😉 Yes, the video tutorial would be good for everyone I reckon 👍 Obviously though I want to make sure there's no issues with the data 🔥

Iain Moran
>>138254266

Thanks lad, it's now working again. Yesterday, after I refreshed the data. Each team had "Vs" before their name (e.g. "Vs Liverpool"), so no data was returned. Today, it's back to normal, so I suspect a brief issue with fbref.com caused it.

Aylas

Is the discord server available only for patreons?

spoilbrat42

The correct score should have been provided accurately. Personally, I don't grasp the nuances of your correct scoring method.

Excel LADZ
>>143583490

Hi mate, the correct score probabilities are found my multiplying the probability of Team A scoring x goal, and Team B scoring y goals, for a x - y scoreline. For example, say Team A have a 20% chance of scoring 1 goal in a match (as determined by the POISSON.DIST function). Team B may have a 5% chance of scoring 3 goals in the same match (using POISSON.DIST). The chance of a 3-1 Team B win is 5% * 20% = 0.01 = 1%. Therefore, 3 - 1 scoreline has a 1% chance of occurring. This equation assumes that Team A's goals in a match and Team B's goals in a match are independent; one does not influence the other. To work out the probability of Team A scoring 1 goal given they are expected to score 1.45 goals in a match (xG = 1.45), you can use the POISSON.DIST function. =POISSON.DIST(1, 1.45, FALSE) = 34.01% 👍

Will spare

Will there be a new season update. i refreshed data and it doesn't like it

Excel LADZ
>>147054128

G'day, Will! I've just updated the post with the 2024-25 version that works 👍 This can also be seen in the most recent post on the Patreon 😃