Excel LADZ | 2024 MLB Lineup Model (Patreon)

G'day, lads!

I've created an MLB Model that uses daily lineups to project a team's xRuns in a matchup. This includes calculating the influence a side's pitcher and batting lineup have on their expected performance. The model (using array formulas) is attached below!

An article & video explaining how I built this model will be released shortly 👍

HOW TO USE

Attached are 2 files: 'Pitcher Model xRuns' and 'xRuns Simulation Model'.

The first file, 'Pitcher Model xRuns' contains the data to project a team's xRuns in their daily matchup. When downloading this file, you may have to "Connect" to the FanGraphs datasource as "Anonymous" in order to get the stats into Excel through a power query.

On the 'Dashboard' worksheet, select the two teams playing each other using the drop down list in cells C1 and C3. The Starting Pitcher for each team will automatically populate beside the selected team. The rest of the stats will update as well, with the xRuns result being presented in cells O1 and O3.

There is the option to change two more parameters in this model: 'Pitcher Confidence' and 'Pitcher Game %'. The 'Pitcher Confidence' stat is how confident you are in the Starting Pitcher's FIP being completely accurate and reflective of the pitcher's strength; I've left it on 50%. The 'Pitcher Game %' figure is how much of the game you expect the pitcher to pitch for.

NEXT, to find the probabilities for each market (e.g. Moneyline, Over/Under, etc) go into the 'XRuns Simulation Model'. Input the xRuns into cells I1 and I4 for each team. This will run simulations, and you can see the results in the "Betting" worksheet.

There is also a "Live Win Probability" feature to the right in the "Dashboard" worksheet. This will also update the "Betting" worksheet.

I decided to create an extra file for the xRuns Simulations as integrating it into the 'Pitcher Model xRuns' was too slow. Excel was working too hard to bring in the stats for batters & pitchers, that when the simulations were added, the model became way too slow and wasn't functional.

NOTE: Right now, the file is only available for those with Excel 2019 and later. I'm working to convert this into a 'Legacy' file.

Thanks for reading lads, let me know if you have any questions or issues 🔥