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NFL Betting Model in Excel: Predict Spread, Moneyline & Totals! (Patreon)

Published:
2024-09-23 08:04:29
Imported:
2026-06
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Content

G'day, lads!

My newest video just dropped 🔥 Download the file here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/111333965

Files

Previews only

NFL Betting Model in Excel: Predict Spread, Moneyline & Totals!

Download: https://www.patreon.com/posts/excel-ladz-2024-111333965 NFL Scoring Stats: https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/scoring/2024/reg/all NFL Receiving Defense: https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/receiving/2024/reg/all NFL Rushing Defense: https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/rushing/2024/reg/all NFL Standings: https://www.nfl.com/standings/ NFL Fixtures (Pro Football Reference): https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/games.htm Miscellaneous Stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/ Drive Finder | Stathead: https://stathead.com/football/drive_finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2023&year_max=2023

Comments

Nate Contreras

thanks mate! you ever considered trying to model player props? is that something that's even possible?

Excel LADZ
>>150487728

G'day, lad! It could definitely be something I could look into doing 👍 For example, consider a WR's receiving yards. The number of catches he gets could be binomially distributed (from 0 upwards). With each catch he makes, his yards gained could be normally distributed (e.g. mean yardage gained for each catch is 3, with standard deviation of 3 yards). Multiples could be applied to that player to scale the expected number of times he receives the ball; e.g. quarterback, direct opponent strength. Then, simulations could be run to factor in all of those variables and find the probability of under/over a certain threshold 😃

Fabian Timmons

Is there a way to put this on google docs so that it's available on mobile?

Bronco1

Love the spreadsheets you are doing! Would you be able to do something for the NRL?? Something that also contains the betting models along with teams and seasonal info for player positions scored on field, their record against the opposition etc. rankings, seasonal trends. Would pay top $$ for that!

Excel LADZ
>>150877447

Hello, Fabian! Unfortunately, not right now. The NFL Model relies on the connection between the spreadsheet and the NFL official website through a Power Query. I'm pretty sure this connection will be disrupted if the file were to be opened in Google Sheets. I hope that helps lad 👍

Excel LADZ
>>151720021

G'day, mate! I actually made an NRL Model for this season. I used a team's results throughout the season to calculate Attack and Defence ratings for each club. I then used these ratings to simulate the score for a matchup and find probabilities for the Match Winner, Total Points and Line markets. Although it performed well, it doesn't use any specific player data to forecast markets like Anytime Tryscorer. I've just made this post free, so you can download the model and have a geez. If you like the spreadsheet, consider becoming a member to get access to the NFL, NBA and NHL Models! Even if you are a Broncos supporter... 🤣 (Go the Eels!) Here's the link mate: https://www.patreon.com/posts/107502219

Bronco1

Your a legend mate! I most likely will, I'm a Dallas supporter lol

Clickygg

Do you update the stats? Or will I have to do that manually?

Excel LADZ
>>153099631

Hello, lad! Welcome 🔥 The spreadsheet is able to update the stats by itself. To do that, go into the 'Data' tab and select the "Refresh All" icon. This will refresh the spreadsheet's connection with the website Pro Football Reference, and after about 10 seconds for the stats to be imported into the file, the model will be fully up to date 👍

Clickygg
>>153099631

Could you make a nfl player prob model or a nba player prob model? Or even just an nba model?