How to Use the ‘Excel LADZ - NBA Model’ (Patreon)

G’day, lads! In this article, I’ll run through the steps required to make daily predictions using the ‘Excel LADZ - NBA Model’. If you haven’t already become a member, and you are interested in being able to back your tips with statistics, then download the model below!

Excel LADZ - 2024-25 NBA Model: https://www.patreon.com/posts/114792748

1. Updating the Model

To ensure you’re working with the latest stats daily, the model is linked to Basketball Reference via Power Query for automatic data updates. Instead of manually copying and pasting new data each day, simply go to the ‘Data’ tab and click the “Refresh All” icon. This action refreshes the model’s connection to Basketball Reference, bringing in the day’s stats seamlessly.

This will update two worksheets: “2023-24 Raw Player Data” and “2024-25 Raw Player Data”. The “Player Data” worksheet will then automatically pull from both sheets to calculate each player’s 30-game stats.

2. Selecting a Matchup & Forecasting Score

To choose a matchup, select an Away and Home team from the dropdown lists in the “Results” worksheet. After selecting each team, allow 10-30 seconds for the data to update, depending on your Excel version and computer speed.

After selecting each team, the Win % and Expected Score will appear. The Win % is calculated by dividing the number of trials won by each team in the “Simulations” worksheet by 1,000 (the number of trials). On the right, you can input the current score, quarter, and time remaining. For instance, with 5:00 left in the third quarter and a current score of 70-60 in favour of the Hornets, the Win % and Expected Score will adjust accordingly.

3. Adjusting Lineups to Account for Player Injuries

Sometimes, a player included in the simulations may not be playing in a particular game. For example, Miles Bridges might be rested against the Celtics. Below is the current roster, assuming the strongest lineup is selected and no players are injured. Don’t be concerned if an error appears - this simply shows that, six games into the season, Charlotte has only used 12 players, so there’s no 13th player available in the Basketball Reference dataset to fill that slot.

To exclude Miles Bridges, set his xMP (expected minutes played) to zero. This change is best made in the “Player Working” worksheet, where I’ll overwrite the formula that pulls in his minutes with a “0”. I’ll highlight the cell in yellow as a reminder to restore the original formula for the next matchup.

With Miles Bridges expected to miss the game against the Celtics, the simulated lineup in the “Results” worksheet has been adjusted accordingly. Bridges’ xMP is set to zero, fully excluding him from the Hornets’ lineup. As a result, the Hornets are approximately 2 points weaker, and their win probability has slightly decreased to 16.7% across the 1,000 simulations performed.

Last season, I published a video tutorial on this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBqpxYZeSU4&list=PLIuPNiYeH9ytCvP9KJAZWwdef17_kVXBk&index=2

4. Analysing the Moneyline, Spread and Total Points Markets

Once the final lineups are confirmed for both teams, the “Betting Markets” worksheet analyses the simulations to calculate probabilities for the moneyline, spread and total points markets. After selecting your preferred odds format (American or Decimal), you can set the Total Points threshold in cell B7 and the Spread in cells B14 and B15. The resulting odds represent the fair value of each market based on the simulations. If a bookmaker offers higher odds, the model indicates that the market may be undervalued.

For a more detailed explanation behind the maths behind all three markets, check out this article I’ve written: https://www.patreon.com/posts/nba-model-93427951

5. Rinse and Repeat!

If you found any value in this article, make sure to join hundreds of others and become an Official Excel LADZ! Not only do you gain access to the NBA Model, but also the NFL model, Soccer Model, NHL Model, and more! You’ll also be able to join the Discord community we have and ask any question on sports modelling, Excel or statistics you may have.

I’m also planning on adding a few new features to the NBA Model, including:

• Live Odds

• Confirmed/Expected Lineups

Thanks for reading, lads!