Paul's Preview: Gustafsson vs Smith (Patreon)

Even though Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson and Anthony "Lionheart" Smith face off against each other in June, the shadow of Jon Jones looms large. Both fighters are coming off losses to "Bones", and frankly both guys had a pretty poor showing against the reigning light heavyweight champ. Despite being fairly large for their division and able to match Jones in height, neither utilized their size to their full potential and the fights ended up being another Jon Jones showcase of skill. Pitting Gustafsson against Smith is a logical choice, but it does appear as if the division is running low on contenders and isn't sure what path they should take to move toward. With Volkan Oezdemir suffering from a 3-fight skid and Dominick Reyes barely squeaking by the former, the UFC might be hoping that the winner of this Gustafsson/Smith fight can act as a challenger for Johnny Walker or the victor of Luke Rockhold vs Jan Błachowicz match up. The 205 division is essentially wide open for anyone to enter a chance to win the Jon Jones sweepstakes, where you can get the privilege of trying to be the first one to beat a seemingly invulnerable champion who's entering the peak of his career. With that being said, let's see how The Mauler matches up against Lionheart.

Gustafsson seems to constantly be at the top of the light heavyweight heap, but a closer look at his record shows a fighter who's only had 5 fights in the last 5 years. He has all the tools to give anyone at 205 trouble, but due to constant injuries plaguing his career, his fight activity has been considerably hampered to the point where it’s an annual event. Despite that, he’s shown flashes of brilliance when it comes to his boxing, and when he faced off against Jon Jones the first time, fans were treated to an absolute clinic when Gustafsson used his full arsenal of striking to give Jones all he can handle. Gustafsson used constant feinting and head movement to throw off Jones’s timing and his frequent circling meant that he avoided most of Jones’s low line kicks. The Mauler also mixed up his punches by attacking the body and the head, making Jones hesitate and out-landing him in the early rounds. However, Gustafsson is 2-3 in his last five fights, and there hasn’t been a lot of significant improvements in his striking in between these fights. He got knocked out silly by Anthony Johnson (but really, who wouldn’t?), battered by Daniel Cormier, won a unanimous decision against Jan Błachowicz, knocked out a slowly-past-his-prime Glover Teixeira, and then got clobbered by Jon Jones in a rematch. What can we learn from all this?

When he’s in his zone, Gustafsson can beat anyone in the 205 division. Even though the record books show that he has losses to Jones and Daniel Cormier in 2013 and 2015 respectively, the fights were absolutely close, and many media outlets gave Gustafsson the win against Jones. His fleet footed movements and varied punches can give anyone fits, and his long uppercuts can knock you out if you’re not careful (as Glover found out). However, he has had lapses in fight IQ that do raise some questions as to how much game planning he does, or if he’s not able to execute during crunch time. Even though he pieced up Teixeira, he had moments where he looked like he had trouble with Glover’s single leg takedowns, and there were more than a handful of times that he would just simply run away to avoid bad positions. The footwork that was there to perplex Jon Jones was nowhere to be found when he fought Jan Błachowicz, and he had to settle for takedowns and ground and pound to win a decision. Perhaps it was that Gustafsson had the best fight of his career against Jones the first time, and he’s felt that it’s been enough to win against everyone else in the division. He’s shown real vulnerability when he gets into deep exchanges (like against Cormier), and whenever Glover hit him in the body, they landed pretty clean and Gustafsson had no real answer for them. Alex is a tall fighter that only fights as such against similar sized opponents, so that’s what makes this fight against Anthony Smith particularly interesting.

Anthony Smith served as Jon Jones most recent opponent, and he didn’t do himself any real favors in that fight. Despite being the fighter that has gone to war with Thiago Santos, Volkan Oezdemir, and Hector Lombard, he looked incredibly tentative and never comfortable against Jones. When Jones committed his second (!) knee while Smith was down, he was given the option to stop fighting, which would have given Jones his second (!) DQ loss. It’s understandable that Smith wanted to tough it out and not take the cowards way out, but that decision proved costly. Not only did he have to fight the rest of the match in an even more hurt state, but he passed up the chance to become champion and have his next fight be against someone while banking a champion-level purse. You’d figure that the UFC would rematch him with Jones anyways if he got a DQ loss, so why not get another payday, one where you’re the champ and have extra time to prepare for a rematch? Anyways what’s done is done, and Smith is hoping to bounce back against Gustafsson.

Despite being with a solid camp in Factory X, Smith doesn’t listen to his corner as much as he should until he gets dinged a few times in the fight. Against Lombard and Oezdemir, he appeared to be losing the beginning of the fights until he hurt his opponents, at which point his ears picked up what his coaches were yelling, and he started to implement their game plan. Smith’s best strikes are his straight right and his left hook. Often times he’ll lead with his right and finish off with his left hook, much like former middleweight champ Luke Rockhold. Smith can throw some beautiful combination punches, with some of his best ones being simple jabs and overhands that he times and mixes in with some nice footwork, but he rarely starts off the fight like that. Against Jon Jones, he seemed tentative the entire fight and never got going, essentially being used as a heavy bag for 5 rounds. His first round stoppages of Shogun Rua and Rashad Evans speak more to the wear and tear of the former champions than do of Smith’s skills, unfortunately. Smith needs to have one moment of weakness from the opponent for him to pounce on and take advantage, and if it doesn’t show up, he’ll either lose the round and try again after, or simply get beaten altogether. This must drive head coach Mark Montoya crazy.

Gustafsson can piece together a vintage performance against Smith where he utilizes good lateral movement, body/head jabs, and long uppercuts to frustrate and possibly finish Smith, but this can backfire if Gustafsson gets lazy even for a minute and gives Smith a chance to score with his deceptively quick hands and killer instinct. Even though Gustafsson is the more decorated striker, Smith can match him with speed and tenacity and give him trouble on the feet, especially if Gustafsson shows up flat footed like he did against Błachowicz. The Mauler also needs to be cautious of sprinting away with his back turned towards Smith, since Lionheart might take the opportunity to chase him down and not give him the opportunity to reset like Glover did. Gustafsson also had a lot of moments in the first round where he cut off the cage against Jon Jones in the rematch, but he couldn’t strike as freely due to his fear of the takedown. He won’t have the same amount of hesitation against Smith, but he shouldn’t forget that Smith beat Oezdemir by timing a takedown and quickly sinking in a rear naked choke. Whoever wins this fight will begin their climb back to the top of the light heavyweight rankings, where they’ll try their hands again at the Jon Jones sweepstakes.