Fight Study 63 – UFC Florona (transcript) (Patreon)

Sam: Yo 

Paul: Yo 

Sam: We’re back, with what I call UFC Florona. This is our first UFC post-fight study since UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira, which was on March 14. And the world has changed so much in this short amount of time. A lot of people we suspected of being sociopaths turned out to be in fact sociopaths. Many others are sociopath adjacent which really just means they’re also sociopaths. This is also the first time we’ve both done a fight study together in a while. But this was a special occasion. We don’t feel comfortable about this UFC event. We’ve been critical of it. But this is what we do, we cover MMA. And as a friend and listener put it: “As much as I hated that this event took place, I kinda needed this.” And I think that about sums it up for many of us. 

Now Paul did a fantastic job with his preview for this event so make sure you check those out on Patreon. I think our quality is second to none because we both fact check it, and as Leftists, we also take a holistic view regular analysts won’t. The criticism about the Left is, we care too much about too many things. Which actually works out well in fight analysis. So we’ll not only look at the styles and strategies, but we’ll also look at where they’re fighting, the incentives that influence behaviors in the fight, their mental health, their coaching, their personalities, and the oppressive system of the UFC itself. This is why our analysis seems so spot on. When you don’t do that and look at everything in a vacuum of just their style and their abilities, you’ll say one thing before the fight then after the fight, be like, “well, I have no idea why so and so fighter threw haymakers like that.” And the obvious answer is, because they’re incentivized to fight like that. They fight for money, so how do you not take how they’re paid into account?” And leading up to the fight, if a fighter is talking about how broke they are, of course they’re going to try to get a performance bonus. So other analysts after fights are so confused by behaviors in a fight whereas we recognize that’s just called behavioral economics.

Now with this event, fighters were going in with many uncertainties and all the normal things they rely on were unavailable. Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza vs. Uriah Hall had to be scrapped because Souza tested positive for COVID-19 along with two other people he brought with him from his camp. And who else might test positive after this event is still unknown. And as much as people said this event shouldn’t take place publicly, many states, companies, and sports leagues were watching to see what the UFC did and how it turned out to see what they can learn. Because I don’t know about other states, but California began phase 2 reopenings already and phase 4 means everything will be back. And rumors are, phase 3 might start in a month. So California is already coming back online. And driving around the traffic is starting to get back to normal. So California I’m sure is using the UFC as a test case, and maybe soon, California will host UFCs again but with no audience. So just as many had to get used to things being closed, I think many will have to get used to things being open again as well. The next UFC event which will be in just a few days will be less weird, and I’m sure once they’re back in Nevada and California, even less so. Just as many of us were like, fuck is this pandemic and lockdown really happening? Is this a dream? The reopening will be just as jarring.

I don’t know what to tell you. In my world, we all would have universal healthcare so that hospitals never run out of money, which means they never run out of the ability to pay for stuff they need). And also the Fed would print money for us instead of hedge funds and banks so we don’t have to go back to work until we had a vaccine. But neither political parties in the US seem to be interested in my world so instead we have Hunger Games, where we pretend there’s scarcity when the rich have all the abundance.

This is why the UFC is a microcosm of the United States, I mean it’s not only an American enterprise, it is America. And the fights are analogous to life here. I bet for most Americans, the same way we define freedom in the octagon, which is about limited rules, is the same way they define freedom period. And the same people who complain about too many rules in MMA are the same ones who complain about there being too many laws. So maybe it’s not an analogy. America IS MMA.

So with all that preamble out of the way, let’s get into the main event for UFC 249, which was Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title. Paul, tell us about this fight.

Paul: It took almost five entire rounds, but Justin Gaethje has done it: he has become the first fighter to stop Tony Ferguson with strikes. At 3:39 of the fifth round, referee Herb Dean waved off the fight after a stiff jab from Gaethje literally shook Ferguson to his core. But how did we get here? And why is this so momentous? Was this fight taking place worth losing Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson? How does Gaethje stack up against Khabib? We have so many questions stemming from this fight, but let’s try to get to a bit of how we got here, what made this fight amazing, and what’s up ahead.

Originally, this fight was supposed to have been the long-awaited Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson fight. After five unsuccessful tries, 2020 was going to give us the lightweight title fight for the ages. It’s been said by many fans that until both of them were locked in the cage with ref signaling that it’s on, they wouldn’t believe that this fight is taking place. With COVID-19 throwing everything out the window, this match-up was casualty as well. Instead, Gaethje accepted the fight with less than ideal notice, and suddenly we had a title match for the main event. Gaethje knew the risks, he would be facing off against a fighter that hasn’t lost in close to a decade. Gaethje’s own last three fights before this one never made it past the first round, what kind of conditioning has he been doing?

Heading into this fight, Gaethje admitted to TMZ Sports:

 “It’s really a terrifying moment — and I’m talking about the competition side. I know what I’m facing. Tony’s been getting ready for Khabib Nurmagomedov, to fight for a world title, for the last three, four, five months. I don’t know how long. It doesn’t matter. But it’s perfect, because I always think they’re working harder, I think they’re better than me, I always think they’re luckier than me, but I love facing adversity. I’m facing my fears right now. That’s what we all need to do. I haven’t ever taken a fight on such short-notice, but I also haven’t been offered a UFC title and that’s the only thing I’m working for. That’s all I’ve been working for since the beginning, so I’m ready to gamble. There’s very few people on earth who would sign up for what me and Tony just signed up for—including most fighters. A lot of guys will say that they’re ready but will not put their name on that dotted line. They called me, my coach said ‘you don’t take late replacement fights,’ I said ‘you’re right, let’s sleep on it.’ The next morning I said ‘if I lose, where are we at?’ For me it’s in the same exact spot I’m in right now.”

Many of us make gambles in our every day lives, but usually not with the same consequences as a world title fight. Gaethje knew the risks, and instead of declining for the comfort of time and preparation, he jumped right in to try and make his title dreams come true. For him, the gamble paid off.

It would be unfair to Gaethje if we downplay the dangers that Ferguson presented. He may have lost this fight, but there’s a reason why so many fighters haven’t been able to hand him a loss in so long. In short, Tony Ferguson makes you fight your “B” game. One of the reasons he’s so successful is because even if you have a plan of attack for him, he forces you to revert to your secondary options. If you don’t have one, be prepared to take damage. He doesn’t worry about scoring points for the judges or making things look pretty for the highlight reel. As long Ferguson is able to hurt you and make you uncomfortable, he’s going to be happy with how the fight’s unfolding. Even if you’ve rocked him or taken him down to put him on his back, Ferguson’s constant attacks wear on you.

The best way to describe this fight is that an unstoppable force met an immovable object. Ferguson’s usual patterns of attack were on display in the early rounds, and he landed as much as he received. The jabs from the southpaw stance really connected, and when followed with a straight you could see it stunned Gaethje momentarily. In the past, this would have triggered a fight or flight mode for Gaethje, one where he always opts for the former. This has gotten him in trouble against the likes of Michael Johnson, Eddie Alvarez, and Dustin Poirier. This time around, even though he got cracked multiple times by stiff punches to the body and the head, Gaethje bided his time and was much more patient with his counters.

Don’t get me wrong, there were plenty of moments when Gaethje let loose and swung with hooks that whizzed past Ferguson’s head. Ferguson also had a lot of success when he kicked first and followed up with punches before Gaethje could react. His high kicks in particular would get Gaethje to stop and defend.

Ferguson has a lot of awkward movements with his upper body, whether he’s moving his shoulders off rhythm or he’s spinning around to show you his back, but it does do a terrific job of hiding his kicks. He doesn’t wait for the perfect time or position to throw them, he’ll spam out kicks as long as you’re within range. And just when you think your lower body is the only part under attack, boy have you got another thing coming. Just like T.J. Dillashaw and Dominick Cruz, Ferguson loves to use his kicks to close the distance so he can land some punches. It doesn’t matter if they’re not power strikes, if you weren’t expecting the punches to follow his kicks so quickly, they’re going to do some damage. If he’s close enough, expect elbows instead.

What started to become a problem was the defensive liabilities that Ferguson has shown in all his fights. I specifically stated in the Southpaw Fight Preview for the main event that Gaethje can exchange kicks with the best of them (as shown in the Barboza fight) and is more than willing to eat a few shots to get in his own. The fact that Gaethje has recently been patient between rushes is good for him, and if he can throw in more feints to really draw out the kicks and strikes from Ferguson, all the better. In the fight itself, Gaethje didn’t feint as much but he was able to draw in Ferguson towards him.

Knowing that Ferguson operates on one speed, it was Gaethje who opted to move laterally in the Octagon and hammer Ferguson every time he came in within range. Take another look at the fight and you’ll notice that Gaethje would start circling in one direction, forcing Ferguson to turn and follow. Just as Ferguson started changing his direction, Gaethje would hammer him with either the left hook or right straight. These are the same punches that knocked out so many other fighters, but Ferguson took them without getting dropped. However, this didn’t mean that he was doing alright.

Outside of a huge uppercut at the end of round 2 that honest to god, could have finished Gaethje if more time was left, it was a fight that was mostly dictated and won by Gaethje. Ferguson is famous for kicking metal pipes to condition his shin, but it wasn’t enough to prepare him for the onslaught of low kicks from Gaethje. This time around, Gaethje didn’t just hammer in low kicks and stick around to trade punches, he moved right after to get Ferguson to chase him. Once Ferguson took the bait and turned, he was met with more strikes, made more powerful by the fact that he crashed into them. I mentioned the left hook and right straight from Gaethje earlier, and these two worked in tandem to hurt Ferguson badly. When Ferguson came at Gaethje directly, Gaethje took a step forward and while moving his head slightly off center, he uncorked his right straight. Whenever Ferguson threw a 1,2, and was stationary, he ate a left hook, the king of counters for orthodox strikers. With the addition of low kicks that crippled his mobility, Ferguson was soon left with a badly damaged face that swelled up and impaired his vision. We’re so used to seeing Ferguson on the giving end of those beatings, it was odd to see him on the receiving end.

Ferguson is as unorthodox as they come, but even he has a limit to how much damage he can take before he starts to see a depletion in his output. No longer were the attacks coming out crisp or as quickly. For every one strike he landed on Gaethje, he was absorbing three to four. Without the bounce in his step and explosiveness gone, any chance of snatching a takedown were gone. And just like that, so were our hopes for a Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson fight.

We all knew the risks, this was a real possibility. Gaethje has the power to end anyone’s night, or at the very least make it a bad one. As fans, we were robbed of one the last remaining great match-ups at lightweight. It’ll be quite some time before we get two individuals like this again in the sport. The 155-pound weight class is the most competitive in MMA, we know this because at any given time, there are several promotions with champions of their own that can break into the UFC and compete with the best of them. Among all those, Ferguson and Nurmagomedov stood as being so good that even though they kept having their fight cancelled, they kept winning against other opponents so the UFC had no choice but to try and re-book it. Yes, they can still meet in the future, but the stakes won’t be the same. The build-up won’t be quite as epic. Instead of simply waiting for a better time for fighters to compete under optimal conditions (or at least not while under a pandemic), we won’t get the fight we should have in the first place.

This should take nothing away from Gaethje. The man faced his fears and was awarded an interim title. That makes three champions that Trevor Wittman has trained to the elite level, and he should be recognized for that. Gaethje took a fight without a proper fight camp, and he stopped one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. Just because Gaethje did it doesn’t mean other fighters might have the same success. Gaethje took some of Ferguson’s best shots and kept his cool, and it took someone with his kind of power to hurt Ferguson on his feet. The low kicks also played a big part in chopping down Ferguson, and there’s only maybe a handful of people that could do that as well. Toughness, veteran savvy, cinder block fists, and assurance in his wrestling allowed Gaethje to weather the storm and beat Ferguson. It could very well be that the accumulation of damage and a long training camp hurt Ferguson even before he stepped into the cage, but it shouldn’t diminish Gaethje’s victory.

For Gaethje, there’s only one fight that makes sense, Khabib Nurmagomedov. He technically cut in line over guys in the 1-3 ranking, but honestly who can deny him at this point? Gaethje just beat the #1 contender in Ferguson, and Poirier got choked out by Nurmagomedov last year. McGregor also got choked out by Nurmagomedov not long ago and a victory over a worn-down Donald Cerrone shouldn’t grant him a title shot. Gaethje vs. Nurmagomedov is the fight that makes the most sense.

For Ferguson, he should definitely take some time off, especially after a tough fight like that. He absorbed an incredible amount of punishment and there’s no telling what kind of damage it’ll do in the long run. He’s still a tough fight for anyone at lightweight, but if he wants any kind of longevity in his career, he should consider taking the rest of 2020 off and maybe entertaining a fight in first quarter of 2021. If he opts to retire, I wouldn’t blame him either. Not many guys can take that kind of punishment and return the same fighter as they were before. Speaking of guys returning from long lay offs, how did Dominick Cruz do against Henry Cejudo?  

Sam: Let me first start by saying, watching the UFC without a crowd gave me old school Pride vibes. No incessant booing and you can hear everything the corners are yelling. And less emphasis on who’s in the audience and more just about what’s going on in the fight. Putting the pandemic aside, in many ways it’s a lot better without an audience because from referees, fighters, judges, commentators, to the audience watching at home, the live crowd is not influencing them. Which makes it more accurate and safer for the fighters.

But since this was new to Daniel Cormier and Joe Rogan, it took Rogan two fights to realize he didn’t have to yell over the audience. DC, however, went the opposite way and was yelling louder than before, perhaps out of nervousness about the weirdness. And fighters were able to hear everything the two commentators said. From possible injuries, repeating of opponent’s corner advice between rounds, and adjustments they need to make to win. This is definitely fixable, have Rogan and DC talk at the same volume as the other broadcasters. Dominick Cruz basically whispers when he’s commentating and we can hear him fine. Or have the booth further away from the octagon if you think the yelling adds more color to the commentary. They were all sitting apart anyway so they don’t need to be flush against the octagon.

And with the Ferguson fight and stoppage, it reminded me a lot of how Rory MacDonald got stopped via accumulation of damage and concussion to Robbie Lawler. Psychologically, MacDonald has never been the same. And with Ferguson’s history of mental health issues, I think it’s a good idea to take a long time off or quit altogether. I don’t know if someone with mental health issues who has breaks from reality should be fighting MMA at all. I also don’t like how we valorize his mental health issues as if it makes him more of a badass.  

So now let’s talk about the co-main event, Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz. Now there’s a reason why Cejudo called out Dominick Cruz, because if the UFC picks the fight for you, then once your fight gets booked you have to start prepping. If you pick someone out, it means you’ve already been prepping. I think also, more than Cruz’s injuries or long layoff, Cejudo’s team felt they matched up stylistically well against Cruz. The three most famous stance switch or neo footwork fighters in MMA are as follows, Demetrious Johnson, TJ Dillashaw, and Dominick Cruz. Cejudo already fought and beat Johnson and Dillashaw, and also fought DJ the first time in 2016. That means he’s been getting used to fighting the best stance switchers for four years. That’s like Cody Garbrandt having all that time and knowledge to beat Cruz, except Cejudo didn’t just prep as the training partner for others, Cejudo actually fought DJ and Dillashaw before facing off against Cruz. This is why this was probably the worst person for Cruz to face and the ideal opponent for Cejudo to beat and retire for a bigger payday. It was more of a power move on Cejudo’s part. Easy win against the biggest name in the division, then retire unless the UFC gives him more money.

The fight only lasted two rounds, which was about as long as I was expecting. I was also expecting patented Cejudo headbutts, which we also saw. But it’s actually a crafty trick because there is a way to do a legal headbutt in MMA, which is you don’t headbutt them, you instead have them headbutt themselves off of your well-placed head. How do you avoid it? Don’t lunge in against Cejudo head first. Or he’ll make you pay.

I mentioned in previous episodes how Cejudo is the best example of modern MMA, and currently in my opinion the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter. Not necessarily in accomplishments though you could make a strong case for that as well, but I mean in pure abilities. How good is he at scrapping and winning? Well, right now? He’s the best. Doesn’t mean someone can’t overtake his abilities in another division very shortly, but that’s how it appears right now. The way he hits you on all parts of your body, and attacks you in all phases of the game. He’s really complete. And unlike other dominant champs, he doesn’t have the size and reach advantage either. He’s just that damn good, which makes his personality and his opinions really annoying.

So how did Cejudo beat Cruz? By employing aggressive counter-fighting. Meaning, he would stay close to Cruz without stepping into his range. Henry was standing with a heavy backfoot to make his lead leg light to pick his leg out of the way of Cruz’s rangey low licks, but also since he was slightly leaning back like an old school boxer, it forced Cruz to come to him because Cejudo was not leaning his upper body forward. This made it easier for Cejudo to chop Cruz’s legs. Gaethje, Cejudo and even Jeremy Stephens showed, to stop the footwork, chop the legs.

The reason Cruz’s loopy punches land is because he makes his opponents lean forward trying to hit him to the face. Cruz baits you by leaning his head in, only to use his footwork to escape. But when the opponent maintains their stance, Cruz’s punches whiff at air, which makes the punches look wild and silly. Cejudo used an upgraded version of the Cody Garbrandt gameplan. And with this gameplan working twice now, Cruz might become a gatekeeper. If you can figure Cruz out, you can now call out top five fighters. Jeremy Stephens, another Alliance fighter, serves a similar role.

Cejudo recognized that most of Cruz’s feints come from footwork. So that means even when feinting, Cruz has to bring his legs into range. When he baits you by putting his head into range, he has to plant heavy on his lead leg because it’s supporting his upper body. So Cejudo kicked not only when Cruz was attacking but also when he was baiting and feinting.

Cruz has three ways of entering. When he enters to his left, he leads with his left foot to create an outside angle to get his head out of the way, when he enters to his right, he leads with his right foot to create an angle to get his head out of the way, when he enters straight ahead, he ducks down to get his head out of the way of punches. There are all these complicated and long videos and articles about Cruz’s game, but a lot of Cruz’s game is redundant. If you just look at his game at the macro level, it’s pretty straight forward because a lot of the stuff he does serve the same function. So you don’t need to do a million things to beat him, you just need to do a few things consistently.

He has a style built on getting you to headhunt. Garbrandt found his success throwing low hooks and uppercuts, punching not at Cruz’s head but where Cruz’s head is going to be. And punches that would normally land as body shots on other fighters turn to head shots on Cruz.

Cejudo mixed it up when Cruz came straight forward or stood his ground. He would clinch and takedown, throw hooks and uppercuts, or he would inside low kick or he would knee. When Cruz jumped back, standing up tall, to avoid being hit in the head, Cejudo’s low left hook hit Cruz to the body. Cruz doesn’t rely on his arms to block, he often has them out to the side or straight up in the air when he’s evading. So once you find your range against him, you can crack him to the head, legs, or body, uncontested. His footwork doesn’t allow him to check kicks.

Speaking of which, another thing that worked well for Cejudo were naked low kicks, usually a no-no in MMA. Cruz was so used to people punching him before they kicked, that he would be caught moving his head offline while planting his legs, and just eat a kick when he was expecting a punch. Naked low kicks really seemed like kryptonite to Dominick Cruz. And he lacks the power to make you pay for throwing them.

Cruz is also used to confusing his opponents whereas in this fight, Cejudo had Cruz guessing. Cejudo would throw these sweeping inside low kicks that looked like stance switches. And by sweeping, I mean the kick would rise up. So it looked like a forward step. But also it could easily become a front kick or a knee. And to add more to the confusion, Cejudo would stance switch with this as a feint or use the inside low kick to stance switch. But because it looked like Cejudo was coming forward, this made Cruz think Cejudo was chasing him, so Cruz would stand his ground and try to counter before exiting. Only to eat a kick or a stance switch punch or get clinched. Cruz’s own attempts at takedowns or clinches would either get easily stuffed or used against him. Cruz was much bigger, maybe even faster, but Cejudo just fought better.

In round 2, Cruz began to believe he was understanding Cejudo’s range. I wonder if he heard the commentators saying as much and began to believe it himself. So Cruz was waiting for Cejudo to come to him, to play into his game. This actually made things worse and led to the finale. Because as Cruz stood his ground, he ducked his head from way too close, and as Cejudo was throwing his sweeping low kick, he just turned into a knee/ front kick. It dropped Cruz, and Cejudo followed up with more punches, and the ref stepped in to stop the fight. In the replay, you can see the knee landing as a knee kick, sort of how Marlon Moraes throws a kick actually.

And as smart as Cruz is at understanding fights, even being able to hear the commentators talk about the leg kicks, Cruz was unable to adjust and unable to change his style all that much from his previous fight with Cody Garbrandt. The big change was mental, Cruz showed more composure than he did against Garbrandt. But unlike Garbrandt, Cruz’s flaw isn’t normally his lack of composure. Now it’s a stylistic problem, much like the roadblock Anthony Pettis ran into and never resolved. Once other fighters figure out the puzzle of your style, you hit a ceiling.

So what happens when other fighters sit back and throw naked leg kicks against Cruz? And Cruz keeps declining in speed and durability, and lacks the power to end the fight before his legs get chewed up? We’ll have to see Cruz in a non-title fight, and then we’ll know where he fits. Because as much as Pettis has style problems, he can hurt you. So can Jeremy Stephens, this is why they’re still competitive and have had such long careers with so many fights. Cruz doesn’t have KO power. In a way, his injuries are extending his career. It took him four years to suffer back to back losses. And as far as the stoppage goes, you will never hear us complain about stoppages. It’s a stupid thing for viewers to complain about. Because it’s not like a bad call in a basketball game. We’re complaining that a fighter should have taken more punishment. The fighter has the autonomy to say they wanted to take more abuse because it’s their body. Their body is not ours to complain about. And we sure as hell don’t get a say if they get to take more punishment.

Paul: So next we have Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik. There isn’t really a whole lot to say about a fight that lasts as long as a gif. Ngannou knocked out Rozenstruik 20 seconds into the fight. Before Jon Anik could plug the official frozen meal of choice for the UFC, Ngannou had already seen enough of Rozenstruik to not be intimidated. Just so we’re clear, Rozenstruik isn’t some can that was plucked out of nowhere to make Ngannou look good. The UFC would never do something like that for a fighter unless they happen to be a former Dallas Cowboy with a domestic violence charge against them. No sir, Rozenstruik is a long time kickboxer with a 76-8-1 record, and he was coming off two big wins over former world champions in Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski. Yes, I know both haven’t looked good in a long time, but Rozenstruik was a dangerous opponent. Fortunately for Ngannou, he has made somewhat of a career out of taking out better technical strikers with his sheer power and speed.

Rozenstruik started with inside low kicks to Ngannou, a smart move considering that this was one of the tools that Stipe Miocic used to slow down Ngannou before hurting him with his jab. Not wanting to find out for long how effective this strategy will become, Ngannou jabbed Rozenstruik to the body before whiffing with an overhand right. Rozenstruik tries to counter but also misses. The biggest mistake he made was going straight back instead of moving laterally. Ngannou followed that missed overhand right with a left hook that missed, and then another overhand right that also missed. Despite missing three punches in a row, Rozenstruik now has his back against the fence with no more real estate. Ngannou finally connects with a left hook and Rozenstruik is out cold. Ngannou now improves to 4-0 in his last four matches, and not a single one of them has gone past the two minute mark in the first round. It’s hard to tell if he’s improved enough to beat either Stipe Miocic in a rematch or handle the wrestling/boxing of Cormier, but he’s arguably the #1 contender in the division.  

Sam: What was up with Jon Anik implying Cormier might be scared of Ngannou, playing instigator? That was just weird and makes me wonder if the UFC told him to say that. Or Anik just forgot who DC was for a second, but you can definitely tell it threw DC off for a couple of minutes, because it was pretty disrespectful.

But putting that aside, we have Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar. Kattar is someone we’ve been saying will work his way into and up the top 10 since he got into the UFC. Why? Because he knows enough MMA to implement his boxing. Kattar is really good about head movement, and he also has good lateral movement. But Stephens is excellent at crowding his opponents onto the cage. What was Stephens’s answer to Kattar’s excellent jabs? Low kicks. Low kicks are enemies to jabs. So when can you naked low kick? When you’re fighting Dominick Cruz and when you’re fighting a jabber. Gaethje was also fighting a jabber and look what his leg kicks did. And without a jab, both Ferguson and Kattar couldn’t get the rest of their offense going.

But fortunately for Kattar, Stephens isn’t Justin Gaethje. Stephens, like Dominick Cruz, has a very defined game that seems done evolving. Figure Stephens out, you can call out top five fighters. Stephens relies on several things, all coming from the right. He uses a right hip feint, a right low kick, he switches stances while stepping forward with his right, throws a right punch while stepping forward with his right, or just throws the right punch. And all of these things look very similar to one another, which is why he’s a test too hard to solve for those outside of the top 10. In round 2, Kattar realized, whenever Stephens even flinches on the right side, he should attack him with his own right. That saw some right straights, and finally a right elbow that dropped Stephens as he was loading up to do something from his own right. And add some more punches and elbows on the ground and that was that.

Kattar was also another fighter who heard the commentary and so made it a point that he knew how to check leg kicks, and also that the cup marks on his back does not mean his back is injured. Another note about this fight, Jeremy Stephens said nothing changed for this fight because he thought the pandemic was a hoax, so he was training like normal. Jeremy Stephens also missed weight by 4.5lbs.

Paul: Next we have Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone 2. This was an odd fight announcement, especially since it isn’t one that fans were exactly clamoring for. Both Pettis and Cerrone were on losing streaks, with Cerrone’s being more severe. The fact that this fight took place at welterweight meant that there was no serious title contention on the line, it was more about having a fun fight with fighters that can fill up a stacked preliminary card. Also at 170, it would have been safe to assume that both fighters would move quicker and have more energy due to a less intensive weight cut, but both looked fairly slow and they seemed to have missed a step. Cerrone found success whenever he timed Pettis’s kicks and took him down, but he wasn’t able to do much with the positions. For the majority of the fight, both seemed content standing in the middle and trading shots with very little lateral movements.

What was interesting was seeing Pettis stalk Cerrone at times by marching forward with his lead leg raised. This was the same strategy that Jorge Masvidal used to back Cerrone up and keep him from getting busy on the offense. When Cerrone leads, Pettis was less effective since he requires much more room to land his strikes. The last three minutes of the third round was very exciting in a fight that could have gone either way. Even though it was Pettis who got the victory, it’s hard to say where the win puts him. It doesn’t move him up the rankings at welterweight, and he has a very recent loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira at lightweight. For Cerrone, the future is even more uncertain as he’s 0-4 in his last four fights. Granted, all those losses were to former champions, but it’s not a good look to have so many L’s in a row. 

Sam: Next we have Fabricio Werdum vs. Aleksei Oleinik. Werdum came back after a two year absence from a PED suspension and he looked like he was just there to tick off a fight to finish out his contract. He even asked for his release from the UFC last year. Even days before the fight he talked about possibly retiring rather than finishing out the last fight on his contract. And that’s basically how the fight looked. It’s the Mark Hunt playbook. Oleinik fought as hard as he could and Werdum looked like he didn’t want to be there. And yet it was still competitive. This is the state of the heavyweight division. Not just in the UFC but in general. Big athletes can make more money in other sports so they go to other sports. So top 10 fights in heavyweight can look like underwater mudfights. Throughout the fight Werdum seemed like he couldn’t remember the things that he used to be good at, like intercepting Thai clinch to knees, or blocking then countering. And when he got the fight to the ground, rather than sticking to the BJJ mantra of position first, he would try to go for a submission right away, only to lose position. He just wanted the fight to be over with. Oleinik won a split decision for being busier and now moves up the ranks over a former champ that didn’t even want to be there. That about sums up the UFC heavyweight division. So what’s the answer to making the heavyweight division better or just all of the divisions better? Pay fighters more goddammit. The level of talent is equivalent to how much of the revenue the fighters get, which is the lowest in all of major sports. So if you’re talking about fights and you don’t factor in pay into your analysis, MMA must be confusing as fuck to you.

Paul: Next is Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson. In a battle of former champions, it was Esparza who eeked out a split decision victory over Waterson. The fight itself was nothing to write home about, and the first round was pretty bizarre. Whoever the invisible lady between Esparza and Waterson was got the hell beaten out of her, I wouldn’t be surprised if she got finished at some point. There was a huge gap between them throughout the fight, and it’s been a criticism of many Winklejohn trained strikers. They value distance and one shot selections over setting up combinations and smart timing. There’s nothing wrong with keeping your opponents at range, but if you’re so far apart that there’s no way for YOUR own offense to hurt them, then it’s not a sound strategy.

The fear of running into kicks kept Esparza at bay, but she was able to rush in at times, especially when she caught Waterson in between stance switches. Esparza would have benefitted from moving forward with her lead leg raised to check the kicks and perhaps catch them, ala Buakaw. It’s surprising that even though she has Colin Oyama in her corner, her striking hasn’t seen that much improvement over the years. Cejudo also had trouble against Moraes and his kicks, but was able to hammer in right hand leads to cover distance and get into a clinch. For a even more personalized strategy, she could have emulated Rose Namajunas and opted to absorb the strikes with her lead leg in order to close the distance and hurt her with hooks and straights. But that’s neither here nor there, as the slightly more aggressive Esparza was given the nod by the judges. It’s unclear what the future holds for either of them, but it was nice to see two veterans with similar records face off in an appropriate match-up, rankings wise.

Paul: The final fight we’re going to cover is Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price. This fight kicked off the preliminary card, and the action delivered. This fight was actually a rematch from their fight back in 2017, which Luque won by D’Arce choke. This time around, both fighters opted to keep the fight standing and slug it out. Luque was already a good striker before connecting with Henri Hooft, and his influence is clear. The Dutch kickboxing style is evident in his kicks and straight punches, and with a focus on chopping down Price with low kicks, it was clear that the plan was limit his mobility to kill off his footwork. This would help set up Luque’s well known left hook and cross counters. Luque doesn’t have the longest reach in the weight class, but he likes to slip inside of his opponent’s to land his own right hand as a counter. It gives him the perfect position to follow up with strikes if he hurts his opponent, especially with his left hook.

Luque reminds me a lot of the great Pedro Rizzo, another Brazilian kickboxer that doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. Powerful low kicks to sharp punches were his bread and butter, and it’s good to see Luque carry on that style. Price wasn’t without his moments either, and he found success whenever he broke through the middle of Luque with front kicks and straight punches. Luque caught on eventually and moved his head off center to prevent further damage. Eventually, one of Luque’s signature techniques, his left hook, dropped Price and signaled the end for him. Luque now has the third most finishes in welterweight history with 10, right behind Matt Hughes at 11 and Matt Brown at 13. It’s certainly possible that he can surpass Hughes, but with Brown still active as a fighter, he might be stuck at #2. Come to think of it, those two have never faced each other, and it might make for a great fight in the near future. 

That’s all I’ve got for this really weird UFC card during a really weird time in general.

Sam: Yeah. The weirdness we saw in the UFC with some social distancing, some not, do you shake hands or no is the same weirdness we’ll all be facing very shortly. The UFC is a microcosm of the weirdness that is America, now more than ever. Talking about the UFC is talking about America. Which makes this podcast more poignant more than ever.